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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line PIT -2.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

11 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards4
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 18+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.1, median 22
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v WAS2026 week 4
4v HOU2026 week 3
40v KC2026 week 2
23v BAL2026 week 1
13v HOU2025 week 18
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 50+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.9, median 47
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

115v CLE2026 week 4
31v CIN2026 week 3
27v NE2026 week 2
40v ATL2026 week 1
42v HOU2025 week 19
More players (2)
Tyler Warren TE · IND 51+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.1, median 43
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v WAS2026 week 4
55v HOU2026 week 3
21v KC2026 week 2
13v BAL2026 week 1
26v HOU2025 week 18
Josh Downs WR · IND 60+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Josh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.3, median 36
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v WAS2026 week 4
77v HOU2026 week 3
72v KC2026 week 2
37v BAL2026 week 1
61v HOU2025 week 18
Receptions2
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions

DataPitch 40%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v WAS2026 week 4
2v HOU2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
2v HOU2025 week 18
Tyler Warren TE · IND 6+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v WAS2026 week 4
9v HOU2026 week 3
6v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
5v HOU2025 week 18
Rushing yards3
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 90+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 89.6, median 84
The line
89.5

His last 5, rushing yards

95v WAS2026 week 4
68v HOU2026 week 3
92v KC2026 week 2
98v BAL2026 week 1
26v HOU2025 week 18
Daniel Jones QB · IND 9+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.9, median 6
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v WAS2026 week 4
5v HOU2026 week 3
10v KC2026 week 2
4v BAL2026 week 1
4v JAX2025 week 14
More players (1)
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 77+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 74.8, median 69
The line
76.5

His last 5, rushing yards

93v CLE2026 week 4
127v CIN2026 week 3
43v NE2026 week 2
46v ATL2026 week 1
43v HOU2025 week 19
Passing yards2
Daniel Jones QB · IND 213+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards

DataPitch 39%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 201.9, median 196
The line
212.5

His last 5, passing yards

129v WAS2026 week 4
211v HOU2026 week 3
210v KC2026 week 2
149v BAL2026 week 1
60v JAX2025 week 14
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 224+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 194.7, median 189
The line
223.5

His last 5, passing yards

269v CLE2026 week 4
273v CIN2026 week 3
144v NE2026 week 2
206v ATL2026 week 1
110v HOU2025 week 19

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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