Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line PIT -2.5 · total 44.5
Our read on this game
Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.
Capture time not held for these prices.
Every market we price
11 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.
Receiving yards04›
TJonathan TaylorRB · IND18+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 60%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.1, median 22
The line
17.5
His last 5, receiving yards
2v WAS2026 week 4
4v HOU2026 week 3
40v KC2026 week 2
23v BAL2026 week 1
13v HOU2025 week 18
MDK MetcalfWR · PIT50+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards
DataPitch 47%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.9, median 47
The line
49.5
His last 5, receiving yards
115v CLE2026 week 4
31v CIN2026 week 3
27v NE2026 week 2
40v ATL2026 week 1
42v HOU2025 week 19
More players (2)›WTyler WarrenTE · IND51+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 41%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.1, median 43
The line
50.5
His last 5, receiving yards
41v WAS2026 week 4
55v HOU2026 week 3
21v KC2026 week 2
13v BAL2026 week 1
26v HOU2025 week 18
DJosh DownsWR · IND60+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Josh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards
DataPitch 22%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.3, median 36
The line
59.5
His last 5, receiving yards
16v WAS2026 week 4
77v HOU2026 week 3
72v KC2026 week 2
37v BAL2026 week 1
61v HOU2025 week 18
Receptions02›
TJonathan TaylorRB · IND4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions
DataPitch 40%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5
His last 5, receptions
1v WAS2026 week 4
2v HOU2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
2v HOU2025 week 18
WTyler WarrenTE · IND6+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions
DataPitch 35%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
5.5
His last 5, receptions
5v WAS2026 week 4
9v HOU2026 week 3
6v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
5v HOU2025 week 18
Rushing yards03›
TJonathan TaylorRB · IND90+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards
DataPitch 45%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 89.6, median 84
The line
89.5
His last 5, rushing yards
95v WAS2026 week 4
68v HOU2026 week 3
92v KC2026 week 2
98v BAL2026 week 1
26v HOU2025 week 18
JDaniel JonesQB · IND9+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Daniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards
DataPitch 44%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.9, median 6
The line
8.5
His last 5, rushing yards
2v WAS2026 week 4
5v HOU2026 week 3
10v KC2026 week 2
4v BAL2026 week 1
4v JAX2025 week 14
More players (1)›WJaylen WarrenRB · PIT77+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards
DataPitch 42%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 74.8, median 69
The line
76.5
His last 5, rushing yards
93v CLE2026 week 4
127v CIN2026 week 3
43v NE2026 week 2
46v ATL2026 week 1
43v HOU2025 week 19
Passing yards02›
JDaniel JonesQB · IND213+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards
DataPitch 39%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated passing yards
average 201.9, median 196
The line
212.5
His last 5, passing yards
129v WAS2026 week 4
211v HOU2026 week 3
210v KC2026 week 2
149v BAL2026 week 1
60v JAX2025 week 14
RAaron RodgersQB · PIT224+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards
DataPitch 31%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated passing yards
average 194.7, median 189
The line
223.5
His last 5, passing yards
269v CLE2026 week 4
273v CIN2026 week 3
144v NE2026 week 2
206v ATL2026 week 1
110v HOU2025 week 19
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.