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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TEN +7 · total 39.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themWan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN4+ receptions-112consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK.

Every market we price

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 11+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 74%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.4, median 27
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
35v PHI2026 week 2
13v HOU2025 week 11
18v LV2025 week 6
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 13+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.7, median 17
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

-1v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
29v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
9v JAX2025 week 18
More players (6)
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 19+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 59%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.5, median 24
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v BAL2026 week 4
11v NYG2026 week 3
69v PHI2026 week 2
11v NYJ2026 week 1
50v JAX2025 week 18
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 16+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 53%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.5, median 17
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v BAL2026 week 4
14v NYG2026 week 3
13v PHI2026 week 2
28v NYJ2026 week 1
1v NO2025 week 17
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 11+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.5, median 10
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v BAL2026 week 4
22v NYG2026 week 3
1v PHI2026 week 2
-1v NYJ2026 week 1
17v JAX2025 week 18
Nico Collins WR · HOU 73+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 46%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 73.8, median 67
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

118v DAL2026 week 4
75v BUF2026 week 1
21v PIT2025 week 19
57v LAC2025 week 17
59v LV2025 week 16
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 38+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceiving yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.9, median 34
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v DAL2026 week 4
30v IND2026 week 3
140v CIN2026 week 2
35v BUF2026 week 1
47v NE2025 week 20
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 34+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.5, median 28
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v BAL2026 week 4
57v NYG2026 week 3
9v PHI2026 week 2
38v NYJ2026 week 1
113v LV2025 week 17
Receptions6
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 4+ receptions-112consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v BAL2026 week 4
7v NYG2026 week 3
1v PHI2026 week 2
5v NYJ2026 week 1
11v LV2025 week 17
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 1+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 85%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
1v HOU2025 week 11
1v LV2025 week 6
More players (4)
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceptions

DataPitch 64%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v BAL2026 week 4
2v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
4v NYJ2026 week 1
1v NO2025 week 17
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v BAL2026 week 4
0v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
2v NYJ2026 week 1
7v JAX2025 week 18
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v BAL2026 week 4
1v NYG2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
3v JAX2025 week 18
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tony PollardRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 4
4v NYG2026 week 3
1v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
3v JAX2025 week 18
Rushing yards5
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 49+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tony PollardRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 70%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.6, median 66
The line
48.5

His last 5, rushing yards

48v BAL2026 week 4
74v NYG2026 week 3
64v PHI2026 week 2
35v NYJ2026 week 1
48v JAX2025 week 18
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 12+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 59%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.6, median 15
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v BAL2026 week 4
5v NYG2026 week 3
41v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
18v JAX2025 week 18
More players (3)
Cam Ward QB · TEN 13+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Cam WardQB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.8, median 5
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

27v BAL2026 week 4
2v NYG2026 week 3
7v PHI2026 week 2
21v NYJ2026 week 1
11v JAX2025 week 18
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 12+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

C.J. StroudQB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 17%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.9, median 0
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

12v DAL2026 week 4
10v IND2026 week 3
29v CIN2026 week 2
15v BUF2026 week 1
11v NE2025 week 20
David Montgomery RB · HOU 45+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

David MontgomeryRB · HOURushing yards

DataPitch 13%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.5, median 14
The line
44.5

His last 5, rushing yards

24v DAL2026 week 4
33v IND2026 week 3
10v CIN2026 week 2
60v BUF2026 week 1
42v CHI2025 week 18
Passing yards2
C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 233+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

C.J. StroudQB · HOUPassing yards

DataPitch 58%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 253.3, median 248
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

335v DAL2026 week 4
153v IND2026 week 3
314v CIN2026 week 2
257v BUF2026 week 1
193v NE2025 week 20
Cam Ward QB · TEN 186+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Cam WardQB · TENPassing yards

DataPitch 51%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 191.5, median 187
The line
185.5

His last 5, passing yards

214v BAL2026 week 4
181v NYG2026 week 3
169v PHI2026 week 2
127v NYJ2026 week 1
52v JAX2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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