Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line MIA +7 · total 42.5
Our read on this game
Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.
Capture time not held for these prices.
Every market we price
8 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.
Receiving yards02›
BChase BrownRB · CIN19+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving yards
DataPitch 62%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 28, median 24
The line
18.5
His last 5, receiving yards
71v JAX2026 week 4
8v PIT2026 week 3
2v HOU2026 week 2
22v TB2026 week 1
18v CLE2025 week 18
WMalik WashingtonWR · MIA42+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceiving yards
DataPitch 13%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.8, median 15
The line
41.5
His last 5, receiving yards
67v MIN2026 week 4
56v KC2026 week 3
43v SF2026 week 2
53v LV2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 18
Rushing yards05›
WMalik WillisQB · MIA31+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Malik WillisQB · MIARushing yards
DataPitch 81%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 69.3, median 61
The line
30.5
His last 5, rushing yards
11v MIN2026 week 4
56v KC2026 week 3
6v SF2026 week 2
39v LV2026 week 1
60v BAL2025 week 17
WMalik WashingtonWR · MIA4+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Malik WashingtonWR · MIARushing yards
DataPitch 57%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.8, median 6
The line
3.5
His last 5, rushing yards
3v MIN2026 week 4
5v KC2026 week 3
4v SF2026 week 2
0v LV2026 week 1
22v NE2025 week 18
More players (3)›IOllie Gordon IIRB · MIA38+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIARushing yards
DataPitch 50%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 44, median 37
The line
37.5
His last 5, rushing yards
100v MIN2026 week 4
41v KC2026 week 3
7v SF2026 week 2
9v NE2025 week 18
0v TB2025 week 17
BChase BrownRB · CIN65+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Chase BrownRB · CINRushing yards
DataPitch 34%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 55.7, median 49
The line
64.5
His last 5, rushing yards
10v JAX2026 week 4
61v PIT2026 week 3
80v HOU2026 week 2
56v TB2026 week 1
72v CLE2025 week 18
BJoe BurrowQB · CIN7+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Joe BurrowQB · CINRushing yards
DataPitch 22%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.8, median 0
The line
6.5
His last 5, rushing yards
6v JAX2026 week 4
13v PIT2026 week 3
-1v HOU2026 week 2
20v TB2026 week 1
17v CLE2025 week 18
Passing yards01›
BJoe BurrowQB · CIN251+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown›
Joe BurrowQB · CINPassing yards
DataPitch 29%
Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.
Our simulated passing yards
average 216.6, median 212
The line
250.5
His last 5, passing yards
414v JAX2026 week 4
269v PIT2026 week 3
182v HOU2026 week 2
245v TB2026 week 1
222v CLE2025 week 18
Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.