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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line GB +3 · total 45.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 8 rows we price on this game clears our bar tonight.

Strongest of themJordan LoveQB · GB234+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

8 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards5
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 38+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 71%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 61.2, median 56
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v NYJ2026 week 4
31v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
56v LA2025 week 20
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 43+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.3, median 40
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

63v NYJ2026 week 4
61v PHI2026 week 3
32v MIN2026 week 2
63v CAR2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 20
More players (3)
Christian Watson WR · GB 69+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 71.1, median 63
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v TB2026 week 4
96v ATL2026 week 3
41v NYJ2026 week 2
147v MIN2026 week 1
36v CHI2025 week 19
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 44+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.8, median 37
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

94v NYJ2026 week 4
44v PHI2026 week 3
43v MIN2026 week 2
52v CAR2026 week 1
44v LA2025 week 20
Matthew Golden WR · GB 59+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.1, median 37
The line
58.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v TB2026 week 4
100v ATL2026 week 3
58v NYJ2026 week 2
95v MIN2026 week 1
84v CHI2025 week 19
Rushing yards2
Jordan Love QB · GB 6+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 59%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.8, median 9
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-8v TB2026 week 4
0v ATL2026 week 3
0v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 19
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 66+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 72.5, median 67
The line
65.5

His last 5, rushing yards

58v NYJ2026 week 4
84v PHI2026 week 3
45v MIN2026 week 2
124v CAR2026 week 1
76v LA2025 week 20
Passing yards11
Jordan Love QB · GB 234+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

DataPitch 63% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 233.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 264.5, median 259
The line
233.5

His last 5, passing yards

197v TB2026 week 4
311v ATL2026 week 3
136v NYJ2026 week 2
353v MIN2026 week 1
322v CHI2025 week 19

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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