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New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line CHI -3.5 · total 43.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 16 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Chicago Bears players.

Strongest of themColston LovelandTE · CHI3+ receptions-112consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

16 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 26+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 91%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 78, median 72
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
56v LA2025 week 20
137v GB2025 week 19
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 29+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 73%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.5, median 51
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v PHI2026 week 3
43v MIN2026 week 2
52v CAR2026 week 1
44v LA2025 week 20
44v GB2025 week 19
More players (5)
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 4+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 72%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.9, median 12
The line
3.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 3
11v MIN2026 week 2
24v CAR2026 week 1
36v LA2025 week 20
22v GB2025 week 19
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 65%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.3, median 19
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 3
0v MIN2026 week 2
35v CAR2026 week 1
31v LA2025 week 20
0v GB2025 week 19
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 41+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 62%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58, median 52
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v PHI2026 week 3
32v MIN2026 week 2
63v CAR2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 20
42v GB2025 week 19
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 15+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 28%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.4, median 6
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v PHI2026 week 3
54v MIN2026 week 2
10v CAR2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 20
38v GB2025 week 19
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 73+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 17%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.3, median 39
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

107v DET2026 week 3
57v GB2026 week 2
79v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
13v DEN2025 week 6
Receptions47
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3+ receptions-112consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 87% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +34pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.4, median 5
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PHI2026 week 3
1v MIN2026 week 2
0v CAR2026 week 1
4v LA2025 week 20
8v GB2025 week 19
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 1+ receptions-192consensus market price

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 76% · Market 66%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 0.5: +150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 3
2v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
4v LA2025 week 20
1v GB2025 week 19
More players (5)
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3+ receptions-102consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
2v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 2+ receptions+122consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 1.5: -156consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 3
0v MIN2026 week 2
2v CAR2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 20
0v GB2025 week 19
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 4+ receptions-132consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
5v CAR2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 20
3v GB2025 week 19
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3+ receptions+110consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 15% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 2.5: -141consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 3
5v MIN2026 week 2
1v CAR2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 20
2v GB2025 week 19
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 6+ receptions+110consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 14% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 5.5: -141consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

10v DET2026 week 3
5v GB2026 week 2
6v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
3v DEN2025 week 6
Rushing yards2
Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 36+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 68%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 56.6, median 51
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

31v PHI2026 week 3
47v MIN2026 week 2
100v CAR2026 week 1
36v LA2025 week 20
27v GB2025 week 19
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 75+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 74.7, median 68
The line
74.5

His last 5, rushing yards

84v PHI2026 week 3
45v MIN2026 week 2
124v CAR2026 week 1
76v LA2025 week 20
54v GB2025 week 19

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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