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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TB +3.5 · total 39.5

Our read on this game

6 of the 21 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 5 of them are Tampa Bay Buccaneers players.

Strongest of themBucky IrvingRB · TB61+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 6. Pending 6.

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards27
Cade Otton TE · TB 26+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Cade OttonTE · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 25.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.6, median 39
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

56v MIN2026 week 3
38v CLE2026 week 2
26v CIN2026 week 1
94v CAR2025 week 18
33v MIA2025 week 17
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 37+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 36.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.4, median 43
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

62v MIN2026 week 3
16v CLE2026 week 2
63v CIN2026 week 1
8v CAR2025 week 18
20v MIA2025 week 17
More players (5)
Bucky Irving RB · TB 13+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 12.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.9, median 16
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v MIN2026 week 3
1v CLE2026 week 2
48v CIN2026 week 1
13v CAR2025 week 18
14v MIA2025 week 17
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 28+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 27.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.4, median 29
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v MIN2026 week 3
46v CLE2026 week 2
40v CIN2026 week 1
8v CAR2025 week 18
108v MIA2025 week 17
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 40+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 39.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.4, median 32
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v ATL2026 week 3
15v NYJ2026 week 2
65v MIN2026 week 1
20v CAR2025 week 9
143v PIT2025 week 8
Christian Watson WR · GB 66+ receiving yards-120consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 65.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 51.3, median 43
The line
65.5

His last 5, receiving yards

96v ATL2026 week 3
41v NYJ2026 week 2
147v MIN2026 week 1
36v CHI2025 week 19
113v BAL2025 week 17
Matthew Golden WR · GB 58+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 57.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.9, median 25
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

100v ATL2026 week 3
58v NYJ2026 week 2
95v MIN2026 week 1
84v CHI2025 week 19
8v MIN2025 week 18
Receptions27
Cade Otton TE · TB 3+ receptions-133consensus market price

Cade OttonTE · TBReceptions

DataPitch 78% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 2.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 3
5v CLE2026 week 2
3v CIN2026 week 1
7v CAR2025 week 18
4v MIA2025 week 17
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 3+ receptions-127consensus market price

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 62% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
4v CIN2026 week 1
1v CAR2025 week 18
7v MIA2025 week 17
More players (5)
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4+ receptions-102consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 40% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -139consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
5v CIN2026 week 1
1v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
Bucky Irving RB · TB 3+ receptions-115consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 2.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIN2026 week 3
4v CLE2026 week 2
7v CIN2026 week 1
1v CAR2025 week 18
5v MIA2025 week 17
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 4+ receptions-140consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 3.5: +108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v ATL2026 week 3
2v NYJ2026 week 2
3v MIN2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 9
7v PIT2025 week 8
Matthew Golden WR · GB 5+ receptions-110consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 8% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -44pp

Under 4.5: -121consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ATL2026 week 3
4v NYJ2026 week 2
6v MIN2026 week 1
4v CHI2025 week 19
1v MIN2025 week 18
Christian Watson WR · GB 5+ receptions-154consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 15% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -46pp

Under 4.5: +111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v ATL2026 week 3
4v NYJ2026 week 2
6v MIN2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 19
5v BAL2025 week 17
Rushing yards26
Bucky Irving RB · TB 61+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 87% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +33pp

Under 60.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 108.2, median 103
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

46v MIN2026 week 3
89v CLE2026 week 2
45v CIN2026 week 1
85v CAR2025 week 18
19v MIA2025 week 17
Jordan Love QB · GB 5+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 4.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.4, median 7
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v ATL2026 week 3
0v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 19
7v CHI2025 week 16
More players (4)
Christian Watson WR · GB 1+ rushing yards+275consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 27%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 0.5: -385consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.2, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v ATL2026 week 3
0v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 19
0v BAL2025 week 17
Matthew Golden WR · GB 1+ rushing yards+240consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 29%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 0.5: -333consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.2, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v ATL2026 week 3
0v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 19
0v MIN2025 week 18
Kaleb Johnson RB · GB 31+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Kaleb JohnsonRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 30.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.7, median 12
The line
30.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v ATL2026 week 3
32v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
4v MIA2025 week 15
4v BAL2025 week 14
MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 55+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 19%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34.1, median 28
The line
54.5

His last 4, rushing yards

11v ATL2026 week 3
20v NYJ2026 week 2
37v MIN2026 week 1
15v IND2024 week 2
Passing yards1
Jordan Love QB · GB 247+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 246.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 241.5, median 236
The line
246.5

His last 5, passing yards

311v ATL2026 week 3
136v NYJ2026 week 2
353v MIN2026 week 1
322v CHI2025 week 19
77v CHI2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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