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Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Market line CAR +3.5 · total 51.5

How our calls did

Final: Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32

Called before kickoff: 3. Won 2, lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 4 Oct, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

30 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards111
Brock Wright TE · DET 6+ receiving yardsWon8 yds-105consensus market price

Brock WrightTE · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 8 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 5.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.8, median 11
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v NYJ2026 week 3
0v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
29v NYG2025 week 12
8v PHI2025 week 11
DoubtfulJalen Coker WR · CAR 49+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Quadriceps - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 4 vs. Detroit

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 48.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.8, median 44
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v CLE2026 week 3
66v ATL2026 week 2
138v CHI2026 week 1
134v LA2025 week 19
47v TB2025 week 18
More players (9)
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 13+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 12.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15, median 10
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v CLE2026 week 3
4v ATL2026 week 2
25v CHI2026 week 1
22v LA2025 week 19
38v TB2025 week 18
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 76+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 75 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 75.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 71.2, median 66
The line
75.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v NYJ2026 week 3
142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
139v CHI2025 week 18
68v MIN2025 week 17
Darren Waller TE · CAR 31+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Darren WallerTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 36 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 30.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.5, median 24
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v CLE2026 week 3
33v ATL2026 week 2
28v CHI2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
40v CIN2025 week 16
Jameson Williams WR · DET 51+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 102 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 50.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.2, median 39
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v NYJ2026 week 3
33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
74v CHI2025 week 18
37v MIN2025 week 17
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 36+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 31 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 35.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.9, median 26
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

65v NYJ2026 week 3
61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
33v CHI2025 week 18
23v MIN2025 week 17
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 18+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 95 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 17.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.8, median 9
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v NYJ2026 week 3
26v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
18v CHI2025 week 18
49v MIN2025 week 17
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 19+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 18.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14, median 9
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v CLE2026 week 3
11v ATL2026 week 2
38v CHI2026 week 1
13v LA2025 week 19
7v TB2025 week 18
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 48+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 84 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 47.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.1, median 30
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
53v WAS2025 week 10
97v MIN2025 week 9
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 70+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 192 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.1, median 41
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v CLE2026 week 3
101v ATL2026 week 2
75v CHI2026 week 1
81v LA2025 week 19
85v TB2025 week 18
Receptions111
Brock Wright TE · DET 1+ receptionsWon1 reception-148consensus market price

Brock WrightTE · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 0.5: +113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYJ2026 week 3
0v BUF2026 week 2
1v NO2026 week 1
3v NYG2025 week 12
2v PHI2025 week 11
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 2+ receptions-152consensus market price

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 1.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CLE2026 week 3
1v ATL2026 week 2
3v CHI2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 19
3v TB2025 week 18
More players (9)
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-102consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 3.5: -124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
4v NO2026 week 1
6v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions+110consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 4.5: -143consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
5v WAS2025 week 10
6v MIN2025 week 9
DoubtfulJalen Coker WR · CAR 5+ receptions-104consensus market price

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Quadriceps - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 4 vs. Detroit

DataPitch 30% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 4.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 3
8v ATL2026 week 2
8v CHI2026 week 1
9v LA2025 week 19
6v TB2025 week 18
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptions+105consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 1.5: -134consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
1v CHI2025 week 18
3v MIN2025 week 17
Darren Waller TE · CAR 4+ receptions+125consensus market price

Darren WallerTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: -164consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CLE2026 week 3
3v ATL2026 week 2
2v CHI2026 week 1
1v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions-120consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 4.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 7+ receptions-145consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 6.5: +111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.6, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 3
9v BUF2026 week 2
10v NO2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 18
8v MIN2025 week 17
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6+ receptions+115consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 14 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 5.5: -151consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 3
5v ATL2026 week 2
5v CHI2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 19
4v TB2025 week 18
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3+ receptions-155consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 26% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 2.5: +118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CLE2026 week 3
2v ATL2026 week 2
3v CHI2026 week 1
2v LA2025 week 19
2v TB2025 week 18
Rushing yards16
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 97+ rushing yardsLost46 yds-114consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 46 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 96.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 131.7, median 126
The line
96.5

His last 5, rushing yards

99v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
80v CHI2025 week 18
41v MIN2025 week 17
Bryce Young QB · CAR 13+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 12.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.4, median 14
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CLE2026 week 3
6v ATL2026 week 2
10v CHI2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 19
-1v TB2025 week 18
More players (4)
Jared Goff QB · DET 2+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 1.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
2v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
Sione Vaki RB · DET 11+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Sione VakiRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 10.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.9, median 8
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

26v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
7v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
0v MIN2025 week 17
AJ Dillon RB · CAR 13+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

AJ DillonRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 12.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.7, median 5
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v CLE2026 week 3
-3v ATL2026 week 2
28v CHI2026 week 1
0v WAS2025 week 18
2v NYG2025 week 6
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 67+ rushing yards-109consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 122 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 12% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 66.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.8, median 27
The line
66.5

His last 5, rushing yards

82v CLE2026 week 3
53v ATL2026 week 2
49v CHI2026 week 1
46v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
Passing yards2
Jared Goff QB · DET 258+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 412 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 257.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 239.8, median 233
The line
257.5

His last 5, passing yards

250v NYJ2026 week 3
289v BUF2026 week 2
204v NO2026 week 1
316v CHI2025 week 18
163v MIN2025 week 17
Bryce Young QB · CAR 241+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 329 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 240.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 194, median 189
The line
240.5

His last 5, passing yards

262v CLE2026 week 3
272v ATL2026 week 2
353v CHI2026 week 1
250v LA2025 week 19
266v TB2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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