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Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Market line CAR +3.5 · total 50.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 20 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themBryce YoungQB · CAR13+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK. 3 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

20 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 77+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 76.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 71.5, median 66
The line
76.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v NYJ2026 week 3
142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
139v CHI2025 week 18
68v MIN2025 week 17
Jameson Williams WR · DET 51+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 50.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.3, median 38
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v NYJ2026 week 3
33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
74v CHI2025 week 18
37v MIN2025 week 17
More players (5)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.5, median 25
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

65v NYJ2026 week 3
61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
33v CHI2025 week 18
23v MIN2025 week 17
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 17.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.9, median 9
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v NYJ2026 week 3
26v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
18v CHI2025 week 18
49v MIN2025 week 17
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 19+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving yards

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 18.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16, median 11
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v CLE2026 week 3
11v ATL2026 week 2
38v CHI2026 week 1
13v LA2025 week 19
7v TB2025 week 18
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 71+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceiving yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 70.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53, median 47
The line
70.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v CLE2026 week 3
101v ATL2026 week 2
75v CHI2026 week 1
81v LA2025 week 19
85v TB2025 week 18
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 49+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 48.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.2, median 30
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
53v WAS2025 week 10
97v MIN2025 week 9
Receptions7
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-103consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: -128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
4v NO2026 week 1
6v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions-123consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 4.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
More players (5)
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptions-109consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 1.5: -121consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
1v CHI2025 week 18
3v MIN2025 week 17
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions-108consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 4.5: -121consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
5v WAS2025 week 10
6v MIN2025 week 9
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 7+ receptions-150consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 6.5: +111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.6, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 3
9v BUF2026 week 2
10v NO2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 18
8v MIN2025 week 17
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 5+ receptions-149consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 3
5v ATL2026 week 2
5v CHI2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 19
4v TB2025 week 18
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3+ receptions-155consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceptions

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 30% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 2.5: +119consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CLE2026 week 3
2v ATL2026 week 2
3v CHI2026 week 1
2v LA2025 week 19
2v TB2025 week 18
Rushing yards24
Bryce Young QB · CAR 13+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARRushing yards

DataPitch 83% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 12.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 38.6, median 32
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CLE2026 week 3
6v ATL2026 week 2
10v CHI2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 19
-1v TB2025 week 18
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 95+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 75% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Under 94.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 131.6, median 125
The line
94.5

His last 5, rushing yards

99v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
80v CHI2025 week 18
41v MIN2025 week 17
More players (2)
DoubtfulChuba Hubbard RB · CAR 67+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARRushing yards

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 66.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 64.3, median 58
The line
66.5

His last 5, rushing yards

82v CLE2026 week 3
53v ATL2026 week 2
49v CHI2026 week 1
46v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
Jared Goff QB · DET 2+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 50%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.4, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
2v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
Passing yards2
Jared Goff QB · DET 261+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 260.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 240.2, median 235
The line
260.5

His last 5, passing yards

250v NYJ2026 week 3
289v BUF2026 week 2
204v NO2026 week 1
316v CHI2025 week 18
163v MIN2025 week 17
Bryce Young QB · CAR 247+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARPassing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 246.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 194.1, median 189
The line
246.5

His last 5, passing yards

262v CLE2026 week 3
272v ATL2026 week 2
353v CHI2026 week 1
250v LA2025 week 19
266v TB2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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