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Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Market line SF -3 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 21 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are San Francisco 49ers players.

Strongest of themChristian McCaffreyRB · SF5+ receptions-125consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards17
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 39+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 68% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 38.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.9, median 52
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v ARI2026 week 3
43v MIA2026 week 2
20v LA2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 20
66v PHI2025 week 19
Pat Bryant WR · DEN 23+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Pat BryantWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 22.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32, median 26
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
42v KC2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 21
32v BUF2025 week 20
More players (5)
George Kittle TE · SF 65+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 64.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 74.3, median 69
The line
64.5

His last 5, receiving yards

82v ARI2026 week 3
80v MIA2026 week 2
12v LA2026 week 1
6v PHI2025 week 19
29v SEA2025 week 18
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 39+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 38.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.6, median 41
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

46v LA2026 week 3
25v JAX2026 week 2
11v KC2026 week 1
17v NE2025 week 21
53v BUF2025 week 20
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 22+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 21.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.8, median 17
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v LA2026 week 3
23v KC2026 week 1
22v NE2025 week 21
46v BUF2025 week 20
5v LAC2025 week 18
DoubtfulJaylen Waddle WR · DEN 57+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Leg - Questionable for Week 4 at San Francisco

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 56.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.1, median 31
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v LA2026 week 3
138v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
72v CIN2025 week 16
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 4+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 8.5, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
7v LV2025 week 10
-2v HOU2025 week 9
Receptions27
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions-125consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 75% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 4.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.8, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
5v LA2026 week 1
5v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
George Kittle TE · SF 5+ receptions-144consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 79% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 4.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.1, median 7
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
2v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
More players (5)
Pat Bryant WR · DEN 3+ receptions+116consensus market price

Pat BryantWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 46% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 2.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
4v KC2026 week 1
1v NE2025 week 21
3v BUF2025 week 20
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptions+112consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 44% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 3.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2026 week 3
3v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 21
4v BUF2025 week 20
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2+ receptions+170consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 1.5: -213consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
1v LV2025 week 10
1v HOU2025 week 9
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 4+ receptions+101consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 3.5: -133consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LA2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 21
5v BUF2025 week 20
1v LAC2025 week 18
DoubtfulJaylen Waddle WR · DEN 5+ receptions+104consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Leg - Questionable for Week 4 at San Francisco

DataPitch 16% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 4.5: -138consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 3
8v JAX2026 week 2
1v KC2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
5v CIN2025 week 16
Rushing yards5
Brock Purdy QB · SF 17+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 16.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.1, median 7
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

34v ARI2026 week 3
30v MIA2026 week 2
29v LA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 20
24v PHI2025 week 19
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 66+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 65.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 48, median 43
The line
65.5

His last 5, rushing yards

75v ARI2026 week 3
23v MIA2026 week 2
68v LA2026 week 1
35v SEA2025 week 20
48v PHI2025 week 19
More players (3)
Bo Nix QB · DEN 20+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 19.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.4, median 6
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v LA2026 week 3
6v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 20
49v LAC2025 week 18
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 61+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 60.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.4, median 29
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

49v LA2026 week 3
36v JAX2026 week 2
36v KC2026 week 1
77v LV2025 week 10
61v HOU2025 week 9
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 17+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

RJ HarveyRB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 57%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 24.8, median 20
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v LA2026 week 3
18v KC2026 week 1
37v NE2025 week 21
20v BUF2025 week 20
28v LAC2025 week 18
Passing yards2
Brock Purdy QB · SF 230+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 229.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 221.1, median 216
The line
229.5

His last 5, passing yards

297v ARI2026 week 3
287v MIA2026 week 2
205v LA2026 week 1
124v SEA2025 week 20
257v PHI2025 week 19
Bo Nix QB · DEN 222+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 221.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 214.1, median 208
The line
221.5

His last 5, passing yards

183v LA2026 week 3
288v JAX2026 week 2
115v KC2026 week 1
279v BUF2025 week 20
124v LAC2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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