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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYG +1.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themKendrick BourneWR · ARI3+ receptions+110consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards7
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 23+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 65%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.1, median 33
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v SF2026 week 3
11v SEA2026 week 2
75v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 32+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 48%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.7, median 31
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
33v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
14v ATL2025 week 16
More players (5)
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 25+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.4, median 18
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v TEN2026 week 3
48v LA2026 week 2
27v DAL2026 week 1
20v NO2025 week 18
35v LA2025 week 17
Trey McBride TE · ARI 69+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.4, median 50
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v SF2026 week 3
41v SEA2026 week 2
95v LAC2026 week 1
65v LA2025 week 18
76v CIN2025 week 17
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 21+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 26%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14, median 10
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v TEN2026 week 3
19v LA2026 week 2
0v DAL2026 week 1
18v PHI2025 week 8
34v DEN2025 week 7
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 55+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 17%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.3, median 24
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
69v DAL2026 week 1
20v LAC2025 week 4
13v KC2025 week 3
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 45+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 10%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18, median 12
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v TEN2026 week 3
33v LA2026 week 2
78v DAL2026 week 1
32v PIT2025 week 18
27v GB2025 week 17
Receptions7
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 3+ receptions+110consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 2.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SF2026 week 3
2v SEA2026 week 2
8v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 67%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
1v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
1v ATL2025 week 16
More players (5)
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 3
2v LA2026 week 2
2v DAL2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
Trey McBride TE · ARI 7+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 36%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.8, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

9v SF2026 week 3
8v SEA2026 week 2
9v LAC2026 week 1
7v LA2025 week 18
10v CIN2025 week 17
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 13%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 3
5v LA2026 week 2
8v DAL2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
3v GB2025 week 17
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 12%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TEN2026 week 3
4v LA2026 week 2
0v DAL2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 8
3v DEN2025 week 7
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 8%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
6v DAL2026 week 1
2v LAC2025 week 4
2v KC2025 week 3
Rushing yards3
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 4+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
13v DET2025 week 12
10v GB2025 week 11
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 8+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIRushing yards

DataPitch 40%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10, median 4
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v SF2026 week 3
7v SEA2026 week 2
14v LAC2026 week 1
19v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
More players (1)
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 63+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 24%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.3, median 38
The line
62.5

His last 5, rushing yards

60v TEN2026 week 3
36v LA2026 week 2
81v DAL2026 week 1
12v PHI2025 week 8
60v DEN2025 week 7
Passing yards2
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 233+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGPassing yards

DataPitch 56%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 248.9, median 244
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

100v TEN2026 week 3
110v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
362v DET2025 week 12
194v GB2025 week 11
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 226+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-30 capture; an older price is not shown

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIPassing yards

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 218.9, median 214
The line
225.5

His last 5, passing yards

272v SF2026 week 3
81v SEA2026 week 2
277v LAC2026 week 1
210v LA2025 week 18
191v CIN2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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