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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Week 4 · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYG +2.5 · total 44.5

How our calls did

Final: Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36

Called before kickoff: 4. Won 3, lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 4 Oct, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards210
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 5+ receiving yardsWon19 yds-109consensus market price

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 4.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 14
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
28v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
91v ATL2025 week 16
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 9+ receiving yardsWon11 yds-114consensus market price

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 11 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 8.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.4, median 18
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LA2026 week 2
9v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
72v WAS2025 week 15
29v NE2025 week 13
More players (8)
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 20+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 70% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 19.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.5, median 33
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v SF2026 week 3
11v SEA2026 week 2
75v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 60+ receiving yards-102consensus market price

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 95 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 59.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 61.7, median 56
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

89v SF2026 week 3
18v SEA2026 week 2
56v LAC2026 week 1
99v LA2025 week 18
89v CIN2025 week 17
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 35+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 34.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.1, median 31
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
33v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
14v ATL2025 week 16
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 21+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 20.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.3, median 17
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v TEN2026 week 3
48v LA2026 week 2
27v DAL2026 week 1
20v NO2025 week 18
35v LA2025 week 17
Trey McBride TE · ARI 64+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 31 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 63.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55, median 50
The line
63.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v SF2026 week 3
41v SEA2026 week 2
95v LAC2026 week 1
65v LA2025 week 18
76v CIN2025 week 17
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 19+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 8 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 18.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.8, median 10
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v TEN2026 week 3
19v LA2026 week 2
0v DAL2026 week 1
18v PHI2025 week 8
34v DEN2025 week 7
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 56+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 112 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 55.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.5, median 23
The line
55.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
69v DAL2026 week 1
20v LAC2025 week 4
13v KC2025 week 3
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 42+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 66 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 41.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.3, median 11
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v TEN2026 week 3
33v LA2026 week 2
78v DAL2026 week 1
32v PIT2025 week 18
27v GB2025 week 17
Receptions210
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 1+ receptionsWon2 receptions-159consensus market price

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 79% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 0.5: +121consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
3v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
7v ATL2025 week 16
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 2+ receptionsLost1 reception+182consensus market price

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 1.5: -238consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LA2026 week 2
1v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
3v WAS2025 week 15
3v NE2025 week 13
More players (8)
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 3+ receptions+135consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 2.5: -175consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SF2026 week 3
2v SEA2026 week 2
8v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 3+ receptions-110consensus market price

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
1v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
1v ATL2025 week 16
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 6+ receptions+120consensus market price

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 5.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

11v SF2026 week 3
2v SEA2026 week 2
5v LAC2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 18
5v CIN2025 week 17
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 2+ receptions-138consensus market price

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 1.5: +103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 3
2v LA2026 week 2
2v DAL2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
Trey McBride TE · ARI 7+ receptions-130consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 6.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.7, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

9v SF2026 week 3
8v SEA2026 week 2
9v LAC2026 week 1
7v LA2025 week 18
10v CIN2025 week 17
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 3+ receptions-112consensus market price

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 2.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TEN2026 week 3
4v LA2026 week 2
0v DAL2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 8
3v DEN2025 week 7
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 4+ receptions-165consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -50pp

Under 3.5: +126consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 3
5v LA2026 week 2
8v DAL2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
3v GB2025 week 17
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5+ receptions-140consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 7% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -51pp

Under 4.5: +109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v TEN2026 week 3
1v LA2026 week 2
6v DAL2026 week 1
2v LAC2025 week 4
2v KC2025 week 3
Rushing yards5
Devin Singletary RB · NYG 6+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Devin SingletaryRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 87% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +32pp

Under 5.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.5, median 27
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v LA2026 week 2
16v DAL2026 week 1
26v DAL2025 week 18
45v LV2025 week 17
47v MIN2025 week 16
DoubtfulNajee Harris RB · NYG 24+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Najee HarrisRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 30 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his rush attempts line fell 9.5 to 6.5 between the open and the close, 32% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 50% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 23.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 30.9, median 24
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v TEN2026 week 3
6v LA2026 week 2
28v DEN2025 week 3
28v LV2025 week 2
5v KC2025 week 1
More players (3)
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 19+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Tyler AllgeierRB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 42 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 18.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.4, median 15
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v SF2026 week 3
10v SEA2026 week 2
61v LAC2026 week 1
16v NO2025 week 18
23v LA2025 week 17
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 8+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 7.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.6, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v SF2026 week 3
7v SEA2026 week 2
14v LAC2026 week 1
19v LA2025 week 18
0v CIN2025 week 17
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 64+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 63.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.6, median 38
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

60v TEN2026 week 3
36v LA2026 week 2
81v DAL2026 week 1
12v PHI2025 week 8
60v DEN2025 week 7
Passing yards1
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 231+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 166 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 230.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 219.5, median 214
The line
230.5

His last 5, passing yards

272v SF2026 week 3
81v SEA2026 week 2
277v LAC2026 week 1
210v LA2025 week 18
191v CIN2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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