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New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line DET -6.5 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themBreece HallRB · NYJ58+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 76+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 75.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 77.5, median 72
The line
75.5

His last 5, receiving yards

142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
139v CHI2025 week 18
68v MIN2025 week 17
54v PIT2025 week 16
Jameson Williams WR · DET 55+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 54.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52, median 46
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
74v CHI2025 week 18
37v MIN2025 week 17
70v PIT2025 week 16
More players (8)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 36+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 35.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34, median 29
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
33v CHI2025 week 18
23v MIN2025 week 17
66v PIT2025 week 16
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 46+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 45.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.1, median 33
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
53v WAS2025 week 10
97v MIN2025 week 9
15v TB2025 week 7
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 62+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 61.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.2, median 34
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v GB2026 week 2
79v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
13v DEN2025 week 6
71v DAL2025 week 5
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 47+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 46.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.4, median 21
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

63v GB2026 week 2
60v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
22v NE2025 week 17
43v NO2025 week 16
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 22+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 21.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10.3, median 5
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

63v GB2026 week 2
16v TEN2026 week 1
18v NE2025 week 17
9v NO2025 week 16
14v JAX2025 week 15
Jeremy Ruckert TE · NYJ 8+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 50%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.7, median 8
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v GB2026 week 2
4v TEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 17
14v NO2025 week 16
13v JAX2025 week 15
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 20+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.6, median 15
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v GB2026 week 2
7v TEN2026 week 1
24v BUF2025 week 18
30v NE2025 week 17
25v NO2025 week 16
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 18+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17, median 11
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
18v CHI2025 week 18
49v MIN2025 week 17
52v PIT2025 week 16
Receptions10
Jeremy Ruckert TE · NYJ 2+ receptions+172consensus market price

Jeremy RuckertTE · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 2
1v TEN2026 week 1
1v NE2025 week 17
2v NO2025 week 16
2v JAX2025 week 15
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

6v GB2026 week 2
1v TEN2026 week 1
5v BUF2025 week 18
4v NE2025 week 17
4v NO2025 week 16
More players (8)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions-105consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 4.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
10v PIT2025 week 16
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-155consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 2
4v NO2026 week 1
6v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
5v PIT2025 week 16
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 8+ receptions+119consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 7.5: -170consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.6, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v BUF2026 week 2
10v NO2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 18
8v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions-115consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 4.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
5v WAS2025 week 10
6v MIN2025 week 9
3v TB2025 week 7
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 6+ receptions+100consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 12% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 5.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v GB2026 week 2
6v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
3v DEN2025 week 6
6v DAL2025 week 5
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 4+ receptions-126consensus market price

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 17% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 3.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v GB2026 week 2
3v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
3v NE2025 week 17
3v NO2025 week 16
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 4+ receptions+120consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 6% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 3.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v GB2026 week 2
2v TEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 17
2v NO2025 week 16
2v JAX2025 week 15
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
1v CHI2025 week 18
3v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
Rushing yards6
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 58+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 57.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 70.5, median 64
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v GB2026 week 2
102v TEN2026 week 1
111v NE2025 week 17
54v NO2025 week 16
23v JAX2025 week 15
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 88+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 87.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 82.5, median 76
The line
87.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
80v CHI2025 week 18
41v MIN2025 week 17
2v PIT2025 week 16
More players (4)
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 17+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.2, median 12
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v GB2026 week 2
40v TEN2026 week 1
26v MIA2025 week 4
30v TB2025 week 3
11v BUF2025 week 2
Jared Goff QB · DET 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 39%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.5, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v BUF2026 week 2
2v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
-1v PIT2025 week 16
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 12+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.7, median 5
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v GB2026 week 2
7v TEN2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 17
0v HOU2025 week 16
4v DEN2025 week 14
Sione Vaki RB · DET 15+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Sione VakiRB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 23%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.6, median 3
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v BUF2026 week 2
7v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
0v MIN2025 week 17
0v LA2025 week 15
Passing yards2
Jared Goff QB · DET 259+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 258.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 273.3, median 269
The line
258.5

His last 5, passing yards

289v BUF2026 week 2
204v NO2026 week 1
316v CHI2025 week 18
163v MIN2025 week 17
346v PIT2025 week 16
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 222+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 221.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 193.7, median 188
The line
221.5

His last 5, passing yards

218v GB2026 week 2
215v TEN2026 week 1
152v NYG2025 week 17
170v HOU2025 week 16
97v DEN2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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