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New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line DET -6.5 · total 48.5

How our calls did

Final: New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31

Nothing on this game was called before kickoff, so it has no record.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards9
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 76+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 75.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 77.6, median 72
The line
75.5

His last 5, receiving yards

142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
139v CHI2025 week 18
68v MIN2025 week 17
54v PIT2025 week 16
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 36+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 21 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 35.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.3, median 31
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v GB2026 week 2
7v TEN2026 week 1
24v BUF2025 week 18
30v NE2025 week 17
25v NO2025 week 16
More players (7)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 35+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 65 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 34.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.1, median 29
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
33v CHI2025 week 18
23v MIN2025 week 17
66v PIT2025 week 16
Jameson Williams WR · DET 55+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 49 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 54.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.2, median 45
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
74v CHI2025 week 18
37v MIN2025 week 17
70v PIT2025 week 16
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 16+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 66 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 15.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17, median 11
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
18v CHI2025 week 18
49v MIN2025 week 17
52v PIT2025 week 16
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 78+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 107 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 77.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 69.6, median 64
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v GB2026 week 2
79v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
13v DEN2025 week 6
71v DAL2025 week 5
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 47+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 44 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 46.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.3, median 33
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
53v WAS2025 week 10
97v MIN2025 week 9
15v TB2025 week 7
DoubtfulAdonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 44+ receiving yards-102consensus market price

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Finger - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at Detroit

DataPitch 26% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 43.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.3, median 26
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

63v GB2026 week 2
60v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
22v NE2025 week 17
43v NO2025 week 16
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 22+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 21.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.3, median 7
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

63v GB2026 week 2
16v TEN2026 week 1
18v NE2025 week 17
9v NO2025 week 16
14v JAX2025 week 15
Receptions9
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 4+ receptions-101consensus market price

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v GB2026 week 2
1v TEN2026 week 1
5v BUF2025 week 18
4v NE2025 week 17
4v NO2025 week 16
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptions+121consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 1.5: -164consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
1v CHI2025 week 18
3v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
More players (7)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions+100consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 4.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
10v PIT2025 week 16
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-140consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 3.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 2
4v NO2026 week 1
6v CHI2025 week 18
2v MIN2025 week 17
5v PIT2025 week 16
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 8+ receptions+114consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 7.5: -147consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.7, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v BUF2026 week 2
10v NO2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 18
8v MIN2025 week 17
4v PIT2025 week 16
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions-116consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 4.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
5v WAS2025 week 10
6v MIN2025 week 9
3v TB2025 week 7
DoubtfulAdonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 4+ receptions-101consensus market price

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Finger - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at Detroit

DataPitch 23% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 3.5: -128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v GB2026 week 2
3v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
3v NE2025 week 17
3v NO2025 week 16
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 4+ receptions+120consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 9% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 3.5: -154consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v GB2026 week 2
2v TEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 17
2v NO2025 week 16
2v JAX2025 week 15
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 7+ receptions-108consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 6.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

5v GB2026 week 2
6v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
3v DEN2025 week 6
6v DAL2025 week 5
Rushing yards7
Jacob Saylors RB · DET 25+ rushing yards+825consensus market price

Jacob SaylorsRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 11%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.7, median 11
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
0v PIT2025 week 16
0v DAL2025 week 14
0v NYG2025 week 12
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 60+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 59.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 70.2, median 64
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v GB2026 week 2
102v TEN2026 week 1
111v NE2025 week 17
54v NO2025 week 16
23v JAX2025 week 15
More players (5)
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 1+ rushing yards+385consensus market price

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 21%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 0.5: -855consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.3, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v GB2026 week 2
0v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
5v NE2025 week 17
0v NO2025 week 16
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 90+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 99 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 89.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 82.6, median 76
The line
89.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
80v CHI2025 week 18
41v MIN2025 week 17
2v PIT2025 week 16
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 12+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 11.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.7, median 5
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v GB2026 week 2
7v TEN2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 17
0v HOU2025 week 16
4v DEN2025 week 14
Sione Vaki RB · DET 11+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Sione VakiRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 26 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 10.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.6, median 3
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v BUF2026 week 2
7v NO2026 week 1
0v CHI2025 week 18
0v MIN2025 week 17
0v LA2025 week 15
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 17+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.3, median 12
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v GB2026 week 2
40v TEN2026 week 1
26v MIA2025 week 4
30v TB2025 week 3
11v BUF2025 week 2
Passing yards1
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 228+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 321 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 227.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 194, median 189
The line
227.5

His last 5, passing yards

218v GB2026 week 2
215v TEN2026 week 1
152v NYG2025 week 17
170v HOU2025 week 16
97v DEN2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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