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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Week 3 · Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET · Market line GB -5.5 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 29 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Green Bay Packers players.

Strongest of themJonnu SmithTE · GB2+ receptions+143consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK. 1 row on this game carries a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

29 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards19
Jonnu Smith TE · GB 8+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Jonnu SmithTE · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 59% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 7.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.9, median 10
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v MIN2026 week 1
-1v HOU2025 week 19
2v BAL2025 week 18
18v CLE2025 week 17
0v DET2025 week 16
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 36+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 35.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.1, median 36
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v CAR2026 week 2
0v PIT2026 week 1
58v NO2025 week 18
16v LA2025 week 17
57v ARI2025 week 16
More players (7)
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 20+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 19.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.6, median 17
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v CAR2026 week 2
19v PIT2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
40v WAS2025 week 18
0v BUF2025 week 17
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 40+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 39.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.1, median 26
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v CAR2026 week 2
90v PIT2026 week 1
10v NO2025 week 18
34v LA2025 week 17
92v ARI2025 week 16
Drake London WR · ATL 66+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 65.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.1, median 41
The line
65.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v CAR2026 week 2
29v PIT2026 week 1
78v NO2025 week 18
4v LA2025 week 17
27v ARI2025 week 16
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 47+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 46.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.5, median 25
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v NYJ2026 week 2
65v MIN2026 week 1
20v CAR2025 week 9
143v PIT2025 week 8
58v ARI2025 week 7
Christian Watson WR · GB 70+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 69.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.4, median 33
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v NYJ2026 week 2
147v MIN2026 week 1
36v CHI2025 week 19
113v BAL2025 week 17
17v CHI2025 week 16
Matthew Golden WR · GB 55+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 14% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 54.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26, median 19
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v NYJ2026 week 2
95v MIN2026 week 1
84v CHI2025 week 19
8v MIN2025 week 18
12v BAL2025 week 17
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 64%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.4, median 19
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v CAR2026 week 2
10v SEA2025 week 22
14v HOU2025 week 20
0v LAC2025 week 19
5v MIA2025 week 18
Receptions19
Jonnu Smith TE · GB 2+ receptions+143consensus market price

Jonnu SmithTE · GBReceptions

DataPitch 49% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 1.5: -185consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIN2026 week 1
2v HOU2025 week 19
1v BAL2025 week 18
5v CLE2025 week 17
0v DET2025 week 16
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 4+ receptions-115consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 3.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2026 week 2
0v PIT2026 week 1
6v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
7v ARI2025 week 16
More players (7)
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 2+ receptions-157consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 45% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 1.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2026 week 2
1v PIT2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
0v BUF2025 week 17
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 5+ receptions-124consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 29% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 4.5: -103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CAR2026 week 2
8v PIT2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
5v LA2025 week 17
7v ARI2025 week 16
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 4+ receptions-155consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 3.5: +124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYJ2026 week 2
3v MIN2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 9
7v PIT2025 week 8
5v ARI2025 week 7
Drake London WR · ATL 6+ receptions+100consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 15% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 5.5: -128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CAR2026 week 2
2v PIT2026 week 1
4v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
3v ARI2025 week 16
Matthew Golden WR · GB 5+ receptions+104consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 5% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -44pp

Under 4.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 2
6v MIN2026 week 1
4v CHI2025 week 19
1v MIN2025 week 18
1v BAL2025 week 17
Christian Watson WR · GB 5+ receptions-143consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 10% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -49pp

Under 4.5: +111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 2
6v MIN2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 19
5v BAL2025 week 17
2v CHI2025 week 16
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 1+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 80%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2026 week 2
2v SEA2025 week 22
1v HOU2025 week 20
0v LAC2025 week 19
1v MIA2025 week 18
Rushing yards8
MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 26+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 25.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 39.4, median 33
The line
25.5

His last 3, rushing yards

20v NYJ2026 week 2
37v MIN2026 week 1
15v IND2024 week 2
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 20+ rushing yards+1700consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 4% · Market 6%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.6, median 0
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
0v CAR2025 week 9
0v PIT2025 week 8
0v ARI2025 week 7
More players (6)
Jordan Love QB · GB 9+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 8.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.7, median 8
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 19
7v CHI2025 week 16
29v DEN2025 week 15
Chris Brooks RB · GB 15+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Chris BrooksRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 14.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.2, median 11
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v NYJ2026 week 2
29v MIN2026 week 1
16v CHI2025 week 19
61v MIN2025 week 18
0v BAL2025 week 17
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 4+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 3.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.1, median 0
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v CAR2025 week 11
-1v IND2025 week 10
19v NE2025 week 9
6v SF2025 week 7
6v BUF2025 week 6
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 79+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 78.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 70.2, median 64
The line
78.5

His last 5, rushing yards

72v CAR2026 week 2
83v PIT2026 week 1
33v NO2025 week 18
195v LA2025 week 17
76v ARI2025 week 16
DoubtfulBrian Robinson RB · ATL 23+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Brian RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 3 at Green Bay

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 22.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.4, median 9
The line
22.5

His last 5, rushing yards

51v CAR2026 week 2
31v PIT2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 20
0v PHI2025 week 19
9v SEA2025 week 18
Kaleb Johnson RB · GB 35+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Kaleb JohnsonRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 34.5: -103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19, median 13
The line
34.5

His last 5, rushing yards

32v NYJ2026 week 2
0v MIN2026 week 1
4v MIA2025 week 15
4v BAL2025 week 14
3v BUF2025 week 13
Passing yards3
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 206+ passing yards-111consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 205.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 213, median 208
The line
205.5

His last 5, passing yards

175v CAR2025 week 11
152v IND2025 week 10
217v NE2025 week 9
230v SF2025 week 7
233v BUF2025 week 6
Jordan Love QB · GB 227+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 226.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 230.3, median 225
The line
226.5

His last 5, passing yards

136v NYJ2026 week 2
353v MIN2026 week 1
322v CHI2025 week 19
77v CHI2025 week 16
247v DEN2025 week 15
More players (1)
Cooper Rush QB · ATL 200+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Cooper RushQB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 26%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 166.4, median 161
The line
199.5

His last 5, passing yards

83v CAR2026 week 2
118v PIT2026 week 1
72v LA2025 week 6
163v HOU2025 week 5
52v KC2025 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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