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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · Market line SF -7.5 · total 47.5

How our calls did

Final: Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 9+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 64% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 8.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.3, median 14
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v MIA2026 week 2
11v SEA2025 week 20
49v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
14v CHI2025 week 17
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 24+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 63% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 23.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.3, median 32
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v SEA2026 week 2
75v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
25v CHI2025 week 17
More players (6)
George Kittle TE · SF 47+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 82 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 46.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.1, median 52
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

80v MIA2026 week 2
12v LA2026 week 1
6v PHI2025 week 19
29v SEA2025 week 18
115v IND2025 week 16
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 39+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 41 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 38.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.9, median 38
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v MIA2026 week 2
20v LA2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 20
66v PHI2025 week 19
34v SEA2025 week 18
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 33+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 32.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.4, median 27
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v SEA2026 week 2
33v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
14v ATL2025 week 16
69v TB2025 week 13
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 41+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 80 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 40.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.3, median 26
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v MIA2026 week 2
48v LA2026 week 1
20v PHI2025 week 18
68v DAL2025 week 17
35v PHI2025 week 16
Trey McBride TE · ARI 68+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 75 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 67.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.6, median 49
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v SEA2026 week 2
95v LAC2026 week 1
65v LA2025 week 18
76v CIN2025 week 17
27v ATL2025 week 16
DoubtfulMike Evans WR · SF 56+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 34 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hip - Did Not Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 vs. Arizona

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 55.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.9, median 29
The line
55.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v MIA2026 week 2
49v LA2026 week 1
34v CAR2025 week 18
31v MIA2025 week 17
31v CAR2025 week 16
Receptions18
George Kittle TE · SF 5+ receptionsWon6 receptions+120consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 4.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIA2026 week 2
2v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
7v IND2025 week 16
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 2+ receptions+160consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 1.5: -207consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIA2026 week 2
1v SEA2025 week 20
4v PHI2025 week 19
1v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
More players (6)
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 3+ receptions-107consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 2.5: -118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2026 week 2
8v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
1v CHI2025 week 17
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions-121consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 4.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIA2026 week 2
5v LA2026 week 1
5v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
6v SEA2025 week 18
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 3+ receptions+110consensus market price

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v SEA2026 week 2
1v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
1v ATL2025 week 16
6v TB2025 week 13
Trey McBride TE · ARI 8+ receptions+115consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 9 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 7.5: -148consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.7, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

8v SEA2026 week 2
9v LAC2026 week 1
7v LA2025 week 18
10v CIN2025 week 17
4v ATL2025 week 16
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 4+ receptions-161consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 3.5: +124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
2v PHI2025 week 18
2v DAL2025 week 17
3v PHI2025 week 16
DoubtfulMike Evans WR · SF 5+ receptions+119consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hip - Did Not Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 vs. Arizona

DataPitch 14% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 4.5: -156consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
5v CAR2025 week 16
Rushing yards4
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 57+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 75 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 56.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 58.8, median 52
The line
56.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v MIA2026 week 2
68v LA2026 week 1
35v SEA2025 week 20
48v PHI2025 week 19
23v SEA2025 week 18
Brock Purdy QB · SF 17+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 34 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 16.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.1, median 8
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

30v MIA2026 week 2
29v LA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 20
24v PHI2025 week 19
21v SEA2025 week 18
More players (2)
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 4+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 3.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.7, median 0
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v MIA2026 week 2
12v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 18
25v DAL2025 week 17
0v PHI2025 week 16
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 34+ rushing yards-106consensus market price

Tyler AllgeierRB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, -1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 33.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17, median 11
The line
33.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v SEA2026 week 2
61v LAC2026 week 1
16v NO2025 week 18
23v LA2025 week 17
79v ARI2025 week 16
Passing yards1
Brock Purdy QB · SF 237+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 297 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 236.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 234.9, median 229
The line
236.5

His last 5, passing yards

287v MIA2026 week 2
205v LA2026 week 1
124v SEA2025 week 20
257v PHI2025 week 19
120v SEA2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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