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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · Market line SF -8.5 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 20 rows we price on this game clears our bar tonight.

Strongest of themGeorge KittleTE · SF4+ receptions-167consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

20 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 31+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 30.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.6, median 31
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v SEA2026 week 2
33v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
14v ATL2025 week 16
69v TB2025 week 13
Trey McBride TE · ARI 68+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 67.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59, median 55
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v SEA2026 week 2
95v LAC2026 week 1
65v LA2025 week 18
76v CIN2025 week 17
27v ATL2025 week 16
More players (6)
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 27+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 63%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.2, median 36
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v SEA2026 week 2
75v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
25v CHI2025 week 17
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 9+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 63%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.2, median 14
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v MIA2026 week 2
11v SEA2025 week 20
49v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
14v CHI2025 week 17
George Kittle TE · SF 46+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 57%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.8, median 52
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

80v MIA2026 week 2
12v LA2026 week 1
6v PHI2025 week 19
29v SEA2025 week 18
115v IND2025 week 16
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 39+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.7, median 38
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v MIA2026 week 2
20v LA2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 20
66v PHI2025 week 19
34v SEA2025 week 18
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 45+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 26%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.2, median 26
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v MIA2026 week 2
48v LA2026 week 1
20v PHI2025 week 18
68v DAL2025 week 17
35v PHI2025 week 16
DoubtfulMike Evans WR · SF 54+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Hip - Questionable for Week 3 vs. Arizona

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.7, median 29
The line
53.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v MIA2026 week 2
49v LA2026 week 1
34v CAR2025 week 18
31v MIA2025 week 17
31v CAR2025 week 16
Receptions18
George Kittle TE · SF 4+ receptions-167consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 70% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 3.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIA2026 week 2
2v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
7v IND2025 week 16
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 2+ receptions+160consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIA2026 week 2
1v SEA2025 week 20
4v PHI2025 week 19
1v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
More players (6)
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 3+ receptions-112consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2026 week 2
8v LAC2026 week 1
0v SEA2025 week 20
0v SEA2025 week 18
1v CHI2025 week 17
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 3+ receptions+116consensus market price

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 46% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 2.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v SEA2026 week 2
1v LAC2026 week 1
0v CIN2025 week 17
1v ATL2025 week 16
6v TB2025 week 13
Trey McBride TE · ARI 8+ receptions+112consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 32% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 7.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.3, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

8v SEA2026 week 2
9v LAC2026 week 1
7v LA2025 week 18
10v CIN2025 week 17
4v ATL2025 week 16
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 4+ receptions-156consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
2v PHI2025 week 18
2v DAL2025 week 17
3v PHI2025 week 16
DoubtfulMike Evans WR · SF 5+ receptions+110consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Hip - Questionable for Week 3 vs. Arizona

DataPitch 14% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 4.5: -161consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
5v CAR2025 week 16
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 51%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIA2026 week 2
5v LA2026 week 1
5v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
6v SEA2025 week 18
Rushing yards3
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 56+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 55.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 59.3, median 54
The line
55.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v MIA2026 week 2
68v LA2026 week 1
35v SEA2025 week 20
48v PHI2025 week 19
23v SEA2025 week 18
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 34+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Tyler AllgeierRB · ARIRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 33.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 23.4, median 17
The line
33.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v SEA2026 week 2
61v LAC2026 week 1
16v NO2025 week 18
23v LA2025 week 17
79v ARI2025 week 16
More players (1)
Brock Purdy QB · SF 18+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.2, median 8
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

30v MIA2026 week 2
29v LA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 20
24v PHI2025 week 19
21v SEA2025 week 18
Passing yards1
Brock Purdy QB · SF 238+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 237.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 233.7, median 227
The line
237.5

His last 5, passing yards

287v MIA2026 week 2
205v LA2026 week 1
124v SEA2025 week 20
257v PHI2025 week 19
120v SEA2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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