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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NE -5.5 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game clears our bar tonight. Every market we price is below anyway, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Capture time not held for these prices.

Every market we price

9 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards2
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 47+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 51.1, median 44
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v HOU2025 week 19
42v DET2025 week 16
55v MIA2025 week 15
148v BAL2025 week 14
32v BUF2025 week 13
Michael Pittman WR · PIT 40+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Michael PittmanWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30, median 25
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v HOU2025 week 18
16v JAX2025 week 17
32v SF2025 week 16
26v SEA2025 week 15
79v JAX2025 week 14
Rushing yards5
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 41+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 74%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 67, median 61
The line
40.5

His last 5, rushing yards

43v HOU2025 week 19
66v BAL2025 week 18
64v CLE2025 week 17
143v DET2025 week 16
33v MIA2025 week 15
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Aaron RodgersQB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.7, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v HOU2025 week 19
20v BAL2025 week 18
6v CLE2025 week 17
9v DET2025 week 16
0v MIA2025 week 15
More players (3)
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 47+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Rico DowdleRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 43.2, median 37
The line
46.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
59v SEA2025 week 17
29v TB2025 week 16
49v NO2025 week 15
Drake Maye QB · NE 28+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Drake MayeQB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.1, median 11
The line
27.5

His last 5, rushing yards

37v SEA2025 week 22
65v DEN2025 week 21
10v HOU2025 week 20
66v LAC2025 week 19
41v MIA2025 week 18
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 65+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 12%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.8, median 25
The line
64.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v SEA2025 week 22
71v DEN2025 week 21
70v HOU2025 week 20
53v LAC2025 week 19
131v MIA2025 week 18
Passing yards2
Drake Maye QB · NE 232+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Drake MayeQB · NEPassing yards

DataPitch 60%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 257.4, median 251
The line
231.5

His last 5, passing yards

252v SEA2025 week 22
65v DEN2025 week 21
143v HOU2025 week 20
235v LAC2025 week 19
191v MIA2025 week 18
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 211+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 184.9, median 179
The line
210.5

His last 5, passing yards

110v HOU2025 week 19
290v BAL2025 week 18
160v CLE2025 week 17
251v DET2025 week 16
201v MIA2025 week 15

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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