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Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TEN +7 · total 39.5

Our read on this game

6 of the 21 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 5 of them are Philadelphia Eagles players.

Strongest of themDallas GoedertTE · PHI5+ receptions+126consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:25 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 6. Pending 6.

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards27
Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 41+ receiving yards-105consensus market price

Dallas GoedertTE · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 78% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 40.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 73, median 67
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v SF2025 week 19
8v BUF2025 week 17
32v WAS2025 week 16
70v LV2025 week 15
78v LAC2025 week 14
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 64+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 62% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 63.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 84.6, median 78
The line
63.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v SF2025 week 19
52v WAS2025 week 18
25v BUF2025 week 17
42v WAS2025 week 16
50v LV2025 week 15
More players (5)
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 16+ receiving yards-107consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 15.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.1, median 16
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v JAX2025 week 18
-1v NO2025 week 17
53v KC2025 week 16
2v SF2025 week 15
28v CLE2025 week 14
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 21+ receiving yards-102consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 20.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.2, median 16
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
49v SF2025 week 15
8v CLE2025 week 14
23v JAX2025 week 13
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 14+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 73%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.5, median 26
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
14v LV2025 week 15
0v LAC2025 week 14
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 8+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.1, median 9
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
8v SF2025 week 15
0v CLE2025 week 14
Wan'dale Robinson WR · TEN 37+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Wan'dale RobinsonWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.6, median 26
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

113v LV2025 week 17
19v MIN2025 week 16
54v WAS2025 week 15
34v NE2025 week 13
156v DET2025 week 12
Receptions37
Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 5+ receptions+126consensus market price

Dallas GoedertTE · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 76% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +32pp

Under 4.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7, median 7
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SF2025 week 19
3v BUF2025 week 17
3v WAS2025 week 16
6v LV2025 week 15
8v LAC2025 week 14
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 2+ receptions-148consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 81% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 17
0v WAS2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 15
0v LAC2025 week 14
More players (5)
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 6+ receptions+118consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 5.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

8v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
2v BUF2025 week 17
6v WAS2025 week 16
2v LV2025 week 15
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 4+ receptions+138consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 29% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v JAX2025 week 18
1v NO2025 week 17
5v KC2025 week 16
2v SF2025 week 15
2v CLE2025 week 14
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 3+ receptions-110consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NO2025 week 17
2v KC2025 week 16
4v SF2025 week 15
1v CLE2025 week 14
6v JAX2025 week 13
Wan'dale Robinson WR · TEN 4+ receptions-134consensus market price

Wan'dale RobinsonWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

11v LV2025 week 17
3v MIN2025 week 16
5v WAS2025 week 15
7v NE2025 week 13
9v DET2025 week 12
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Tony PollardRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 46%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
1v SF2025 week 15
0v CLE2025 week 14
Rushing yards15
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 46+ rushing yards-107consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 79% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 45.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 79.4, median 74
The line
45.5

His last 5, rushing yards

48v JAX2025 week 18
85v NO2025 week 17
102v KC2025 week 16
104v SF2025 week 15
161v CLE2025 week 14
Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 78+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIRushing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 77.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 68.8, median 63
The line
77.5

His last 5, rushing yards

106v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
132v WAS2025 week 16
78v LV2025 week 15
122v LAC2025 week 14
More players (3)
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 32+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIRushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 31.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.9, median 10.5
The line
31.5

His last 5, rushing yards

14v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
40v WAS2025 week 16
39v LV2025 week 15
8v LAC2025 week 14
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 22+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 42%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 23.4, median 17
The line
21.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
52v KC2025 week 16
34v SF2025 week 15
19v CLE2025 week 14
Cameron Ward QB · TEN 12+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Cameron WardQB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 33%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.2, median 5
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
2v SF2025 week 15
4v CLE2025 week 14
Passing yards2
Cameron Ward QB · TEN 186+ passing yards-110consensus market price

Cameron WardQB · TENPassing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 185.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 187.9, median 183
The line
185.5

His last 5, passing yards

52v JAX2025 week 18
228v NO2025 week 17
212v KC2025 week 16
170v SF2025 week 15
108v CLE2025 week 14
Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 208+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Jalen HurtsQB · PHIPassing yards

DataPitch 77%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 269.2, median 264
The line
207.5

His last 5, passing yards

167v SF2025 week 19
108v BUF2025 week 17
178v WAS2025 week 16
171v LV2025 week 15
231v LAC2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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