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Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TB -8.5 · total 40.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 19 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Cleveland Browns players.

Strongest of themJerry JeudyWR · CLE27+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:25 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards27
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 27+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Jerry JeudyWR · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 68% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 26.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.3, median 40
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v CIN2025 week 18
54v PIT2025 week 17
12v BUF2025 week 16
22v CHI2025 week 15
76v TEN2025 week 14
Harold Fannin TE · CLE 36+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Harold FanninTE · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 65% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 35.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.3, median 48
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v PIT2025 week 17
34v BUF2025 week 16
48v CHI2025 week 15
114v TEN2025 week 14
43v SF2025 week 13
More players (5)
Cade Otton TE · TB 32+ receiving yards-108consensus market price

Cade OttonTE · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 31.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.5, median 28
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

94v CAR2025 week 18
33v MIA2025 week 17
15v CAR2025 week 16
19v NO2025 week 14
9v ARI2025 week 13
Bucky Irving RB · TB 15+ receiving yards-108consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 14.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17, median 11
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v CAR2025 week 18
14v MIA2025 week 17
0v CAR2025 week 16
11v ATL2025 week 15
26v NO2025 week 14
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 55+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 54.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35, median 28
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v CAR2025 week 18
20v MIA2025 week 17
40v CAR2025 week 16
64v ATL2025 week 15
15v NO2025 week 14
Chris Godwin WR · TB 47+ receiving yards-108consensus market price

Chris GodwinWR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 46.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27, median 21
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v CAR2025 week 18
108v MIA2025 week 17
30v CAR2025 week 16
20v ATL2025 week 15
55v NO2025 week 14
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 10+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 70%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.8, median 18
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v BUF2025 week 16
-4v CHI2025 week 15
58v TEN2025 week 14
18v SF2025 week 13
0v LV2025 week 12
Receptions27
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 3+ receptions+122consensus market price

Jerry JeudyWR · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 60% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CIN2025 week 18
5v PIT2025 week 17
3v BUF2025 week 16
2v CHI2025 week 15
3v TEN2025 week 14
Harold Fannin TE · CLE 5+ receptions+135consensus market price

Harold FanninTE · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.1, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PIT2025 week 17
4v BUF2025 week 16
7v CHI2025 week 15
8v TEN2025 week 14
3v SF2025 week 13
More players (5)
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 2+ receptions-185consensus market price

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 65%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BUF2025 week 16
3v CHI2025 week 15
1v TEN2025 week 14
3v SF2025 week 13
0v LV2025 week 12
Cade Otton TE · TB 4+ receptions+122consensus market price

Cade OttonTE · TBReceptions

DataPitch 43% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v CAR2025 week 18
4v MIA2025 week 17
2v CAR2025 week 16
3v NO2025 week 14
2v ARI2025 week 13
Bucky Irving RB · TB 3+ receptions+120consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
5v MIA2025 week 17
0v CAR2025 week 16
1v ATL2025 week 15
2v NO2025 week 14
Chris Godwin WR · TB 5+ receptions+130consensus market price

Chris GodwinWR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 16% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
7v MIA2025 week 17
5v CAR2025 week 16
4v ATL2025 week 15
5v NO2025 week 14
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4+ receptions-161consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceptions

DataPitch 22% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
1v CAR2025 week 16
4v ATL2025 week 15
2v NO2025 week 14
Rushing yards4
Baker Mayfield QB · TB 16+ rushing yards-107consensus market price

Baker MayfieldQB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 15.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.7, median 12
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

31v CAR2025 week 18
16v MIA2025 week 17
49v CAR2025 week 16
1v ATL2025 week 15
42v NO2025 week 14
Bucky Irving RB · TB 61+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 91%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 117.1, median 111
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

85v CAR2025 week 18
19v MIA2025 week 17
71v CAR2025 week 16
60v ATL2025 week 15
55v NO2025 week 14
More players (2)
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 53+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLERushing yards

DataPitch 15%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.4, median 24
The line
52.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v BUF2025 week 16
21v CHI2025 week 15
26v TEN2025 week 14
91v SF2025 week 13
47v LV2025 week 12
Deshaun Watson QB · CLE 24+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Deshaun WatsonQB · CLERushing yards

DataPitch 14%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.8, median 4
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CIN2024 week 7
17v PHI2024 week 6
14v WAS2024 week 5
32v LV2024 week 4
26v NYG2024 week 3
Passing yards1
Baker Mayfield QB · TB 218+ passing yards-116consensus market price

Baker MayfieldQB · TBPassing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 217.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 212.3, median 207
The line
217.5

His last 5, passing yards

198v CAR2025 week 18
327v MIA2025 week 17
127v CAR2025 week 16
252v ATL2025 week 15
122v NO2025 week 14

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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