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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line ATL +2.5 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Carolina Panthers 34, Atlanta Falcons 3

Nothing on this game was called before kickoff, so it has no record.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 20 Sept, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

30 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards11
Olamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 9+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 8.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.4, median 12
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v PIT2026 week 1
9v LA2025 week 20
8v GB2025 week 19
33v GB2025 week 16
0v CLE2025 week 15
Darren Waller TE · CAR 17+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Darren WallerTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 33 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 16.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25, median 18
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v CHI2026 week 1
0v TB2025 week 17
40v CIN2025 week 16
66v PIT2025 week 15
13v NYJ2025 week 14
More players (9)
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 32+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 31.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.7, median 35
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PIT2026 week 1
58v NO2025 week 18
16v LA2025 week 17
57v ARI2025 week 16
166v TB2025 week 15
Xavier Legette WR · CAR 17+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Xavier LegetteWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 64 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 16.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 14
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CHI2026 week 1
8v LA2025 week 19
22v TB2025 week 18
3v SEA2025 week 17
12v TB2025 week 16
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 18+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 17.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.3, median 15
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v PIT2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
40v WAS2025 week 18
0v BUF2025 week 17
13v WAS2025 week 16
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 14+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 13.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.8, median 8
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v CHI2026 week 1
22v LA2025 week 19
38v TB2025 week 18
6v SEA2025 week 17
6v TB2025 week 16
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 13+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.9, median 7
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

38v CHI2026 week 1
13v LA2025 week 19
7v TB2025 week 18
6v SEA2025 week 17
7v TB2025 week 16
Jalen Coker WR · CAR 51+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 66 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 50.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.3, median 35
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

138v CHI2026 week 1
134v LA2025 week 19
47v TB2025 week 18
16v SEA2025 week 17
47v TB2025 week 16
Drake London WR · ATL 57+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 51 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 56.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.5, median 38
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v PIT2026 week 1
78v NO2025 week 18
4v LA2025 week 17
27v ARI2025 week 16
119v CAR2025 week 11
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 43+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 42.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.8, median 24
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

90v PIT2026 week 1
10v NO2025 week 18
34v LA2025 week 17
92v ARI2025 week 16
82v TB2025 week 15
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 59+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 101 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 58.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.7, median 33
The line
58.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v CHI2026 week 1
81v LA2025 week 19
85v TB2025 week 18
5v SEA2025 week 17
73v TB2025 week 16
Receptions11
Olamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 2+ receptions+115consensus market price

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 1.5: -149consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PIT2026 week 1
1v LA2025 week 20
1v GB2025 week 19
2v GB2025 week 16
0v CLE2025 week 15
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 4+ receptions+106consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 3.5: -137consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PIT2026 week 1
6v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
7v ARI2025 week 16
11v TB2025 week 15
More players (9)
Darren Waller TE · CAR 2+ receptions-157consensus market price

Darren WallerTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: +127consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CHI2026 week 1
1v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
7v PIT2025 week 15
1v NYJ2025 week 14
Xavier Legette WR · CAR 2+ receptions-115consensus market price

Xavier LegetteWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 1.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CHI2026 week 1
1v LA2025 week 19
3v TB2025 week 18
1v SEA2025 week 17
1v TB2025 week 16
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 2+ receptions-132consensus market price

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CHI2026 week 1
3v LA2025 week 19
3v TB2025 week 18
1v SEA2025 week 17
1v TB2025 week 16
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 2+ receptions-147consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 1.5: +112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PIT2026 week 1
0v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
0v BUF2025 week 17
3v WAS2025 week 16
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3+ receptions+144consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: -190consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CHI2026 week 1
2v LA2025 week 19
2v TB2025 week 18
3v SEA2025 week 17
1v TB2025 week 16
Jalen Coker WR · CAR 5+ receptions-108consensus market price

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

8v CHI2026 week 1
9v LA2025 week 19
6v TB2025 week 18
2v SEA2025 week 17
3v TB2025 week 16
Drake London WR · ATL 5+ receptions-130consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 4.5: -103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PIT2026 week 1
4v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
3v ARI2025 week 16
7v CAR2025 week 11
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 5+ receptions-157consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 4.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

8v PIT2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
5v LA2025 week 17
7v ARI2025 week 16
8v TB2025 week 15
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 5+ receptions-110consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 4.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CHI2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 19
4v TB2025 week 18
1v SEA2025 week 17
6v TB2025 week 16
Rushing yards6
Cooper Rush QB · ATL 1+ rushing yards+132consensus market price

Cooper RushQB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 0.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.9, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v PIT2026 week 1
0v LA2025 week 6
0v HOU2025 week 5
0v KC2025 week 4
-4v CLE2025 week 2
Bryce Young QB · CAR 14+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 13.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.3, median 14
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v CHI2026 week 1
24v LA2025 week 19
-1v TB2025 week 18
27v SEA2025 week 17
20v TB2025 week 16
More players (4)
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 84+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 72 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 83.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 80.2, median 73
The line
83.5

His last 5, rushing yards

83v PIT2026 week 1
33v NO2025 week 18
195v LA2025 week 17
76v ARI2025 week 16
93v TB2025 week 15
Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 23+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Jonathon BrooksRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 22.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.7, median 9
The line
22.5

His last 4, rushing yards

14v CHI2026 week 1
-3v PHI2024 week 14
18v TB2024 week 13
7v KC2024 week 12
Brian Robinson RB · ATL 26+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Brian RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 51 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 25.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18, median 10
The line
25.5

His last 5, rushing yards

31v PIT2026 week 1
4v SEA2025 week 20
0v PHI2025 week 19
9v SEA2025 week 18
22v CHI2025 week 17

His other lines in this market

29+ rushing yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 54%-115book price at this line
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 57+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 56.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34.4, median 28
The line
56.5

His last 5, rushing yards

49v CHI2026 week 1
46v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
12v SEA2025 week 17
27v TB2025 week 16
Passing yards2
Cooper Rush QB · ATL 184+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Cooper RushQB · ATLPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 86 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 183.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 162.6, median 157
The line
183.5

His last 5, passing yards

118v PIT2026 week 1
72v LA2025 week 6
163v HOU2025 week 5
52v KC2025 week 4
140v PHI2024 week 17
Bryce Young QB · CAR 223+ passing yards-110consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 287 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 222.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 180.2, median 175
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

353v CHI2026 week 1
250v LA2025 week 19
266v TB2025 week 18
40v SEA2025 week 17
174v TB2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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