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San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Week 1 · Thu Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · Market line LA -3.5 · total 48.5

Our read on this game

14 of the 33 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and 9 of them are San Francisco 49ers players.

Strongest of themJake TongesTE · SF2+ receptions+145consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 10 Sept, 23:28 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

33 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

33 players across every market.

Receiving yards612
Jake Tonges TE · SF 10+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jake TongesTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 79% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 9.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.9, median 25
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

59v SEA2025 week 20
14v PHI2025 week 19
60v CHI2025 week 17
7v IND2025 week 16
0v ARI2025 week 11
George Kittle TE · SF 34+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 33.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.3, median 50
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v PHI2025 week 19
29v SEA2025 week 18
115v IND2025 week 16
88v TEN2025 week 15
67v CLE2025 week 13
More players (10)
DoubtfulDemarcus Robinson WR · SF 10+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Demarcus RobinsonWR · SFReceiving yards

Doubtful: his receiving yards line fell 13.5 to 9.5 between the open and the close, 30% across 8 books: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 9.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.1, median 21
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v SEA2025 week 20
111v PHI2025 week 19
24v SEA2025 week 18
30v CHI2025 week 17
23v IND2025 week 16
Colby Parkinson TE · LA 19+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 65% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 18.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34, median 28
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

62v SEA2025 week 21
56v CHI2025 week 20
34v CAR2025 week 19
36v ARI2025 week 18
53v ATL2025 week 17
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 7+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 59% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 6.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.9, median 10
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v SEA2025 week 20
49v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
14v CHI2025 week 17
7v TEN2025 week 15
Puka Nacua WR · LA 91+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 90.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 109.3, median 101
The line
90.5

His last 5, receiving yards

165v SEA2025 week 21
56v CHI2025 week 20
111v CAR2025 week 19
76v ARI2025 week 18
47v ATL2025 week 17
Kyren Williams RB · LA 11+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 10.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17, median 12
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v SEA2025 week 21
30v CHI2025 week 20
18v CAR2025 week 19
21v ARI2025 week 18
38v ATL2025 week 17
Deebo Samuel WR · SF 29+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Deebo SamuelWR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 28.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.6, median 27
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v PHI2025 week 18
68v DAL2025 week 17
35v PHI2025 week 16
43v NYG2025 week 15
27v MIN2025 week 14
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 40+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 39.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.8, median 37
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

39v SEA2025 week 20
66v PHI2025 week 19
34v SEA2025 week 18
41v CHI2025 week 17
29v IND2025 week 16
Davante Adams WR · LA 53+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 52.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57, median 49
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

89v SEA2025 week 21
24v CHI2025 week 20
72v CAR2025 week 19
71v DET2025 week 15
29v ARI2025 week 14
Terrance Ferguson TE · LA 25+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Terrance FergusonTE · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 24.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.9, median 17
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
54v ATL2025 week 17
33v SEA2025 week 16
6v DET2025 week 15
Mike Evans WR · SF 50+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 49.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.4, median 27
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v CAR2025 week 18
31v MIA2025 week 17
31v CAR2025 week 16
132v ATL2025 week 15
0v DET2025 week 7
Receptions612
Jake Tonges TE · SF 2+ receptions+145consensus market price

Jake TongesTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 75% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap +34pp

Under 1.5: -192consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SEA2025 week 20
1v PHI2025 week 19
7v CHI2025 week 17
1v IND2025 week 16
0v ARI2025 week 11
George Kittle TE · SF 4+ receptions+106consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 70% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 3.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.4, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
7v IND2025 week 16
8v TEN2025 week 15
4v CLE2025 week 13
More players (10)
Colby Parkinson TE · LA 3+ receptions+131consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 2.5: -173consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2025 week 21
3v CHI2025 week 20
2v CAR2025 week 19
4v ARI2025 week 18
6v ATL2025 week 17
DoubtfulDemarcus Robinson WR · SF 2+ receptions+168consensus market price

Demarcus RobinsonWR · SFReceptions

Doubtful: his receiving yards line fell 13.5 to 9.5 between the open and the close, 30% across 8 books: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 52% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 1.5: -230consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
3v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
2v IND2025 week 16
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 2+ receptions+162consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 38%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 1.5: -218consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v SEA2025 week 20
4v PHI2025 week 19
1v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
1v TEN2025 week 15
Puka Nacua WR · LA 8+ receptions+115consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 7.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 8.1, median 8
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v SEA2025 week 21
5v CHI2025 week 20
10v CAR2025 week 19
10v ARI2025 week 18
5v ATL2025 week 17
Deebo Samuel WR · SF 3+ receptions-143consensus market price

Deebo SamuelWR · SFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 2.5: +117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2025 week 18
2v DAL2025 week 17
3v PHI2025 week 16
3v NYG2025 week 15
4v MIN2025 week 14
Kyren Williams RB · LA 2+ receptions-155consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 1.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2025 week 21
4v CHI2025 week 20
2v CAR2025 week 19
3v ARI2025 week 18
3v ATL2025 week 17
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions-131consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 53% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 4.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.1, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
6v SEA2025 week 18
4v CHI2025 week 17
6v IND2025 week 16
Davante Adams WR · LA 5+ receptions-106consensus market price

Davante AdamsWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 4.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SEA2025 week 21
2v CHI2025 week 20
5v CAR2025 week 19
4v DET2025 week 15
4v ARI2025 week 14
Terrance Ferguson TE · LA 2+ receptions-165consensus market price

Terrance FergusonTE · LAReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 1.5: +125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v SEA2025 week 21
1v CHI2025 week 20
2v ATL2025 week 17
3v SEA2025 week 16
1v DET2025 week 15
Mike Evans WR · SF 4+ receptions-137consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceptions

DataPitch 26% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 3.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
5v CAR2025 week 16
6v ATL2025 week 15
0v DET2025 week 7
Rushing yards27
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 60+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 59.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 73.7, median 69
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

35v SEA2025 week 20
48v PHI2025 week 19
23v SEA2025 week 18
140v CHI2025 week 17
117v IND2025 week 16
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 1+ rushing yards+145consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 0.5: -185consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.8, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v SEA2025 week 21
-1v CHI2025 week 20
0v CAR2025 week 19
3v ARI2025 week 18
0v ATL2025 week 17
More players (5)
Puka Nacua WR · LA 3+ rushing yards+122consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LARushing yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 2.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v SEA2025 week 21
6v CHI2025 week 20
14v CAR2025 week 19
24v ARI2025 week 18
0v ATL2025 week 17
Kyren Williams RB · LA 56+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 55.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 61, median 56
The line
55.5

His last 5, rushing yards

39v SEA2025 week 21
87v CHI2025 week 20
57v CAR2025 week 19
60v ARI2025 week 18
92v ATL2025 week 17
Blake Corum RB · LA 44+ rushing yards-116consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 43.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.1, median 39
The line
43.5

His last 5, rushing yards

55v SEA2025 week 21
19v CHI2025 week 20
45v CAR2025 week 19
59v ARI2025 week 18
18v ATL2025 week 17
Brock Purdy QB · SF 19+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 18.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18, median 14
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

37v SEA2025 week 20
24v PHI2025 week 19
21v SEA2025 week 18
28v CHI2025 week 17
11v IND2025 week 16
Deebo Samuel WR · SF 8+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Deebo SamuelWR · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 7.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 3.6, median 0
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v PHI2025 week 18
25v DAL2025 week 17
0v PHI2025 week 16
0v NYG2025 week 15
0v MIN2025 week 14
Passing yards2
Brock Purdy QB · SF 239+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 238.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 250, median 245
The line
238.5

His last 5, passing yards

124v SEA2025 week 20
257v PHI2025 week 19
120v SEA2025 week 18
296v CHI2025 week 17
295v IND2025 week 16
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 259+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LAPassing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 258.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 260.6, median 255
The line
258.5

His last 5, passing yards

365v SEA2025 week 21
229v CHI2025 week 20
295v CAR2025 week 19
252v ARI2025 week 18
248v ATL2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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