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Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Market line LV -3 · total 40.5

How our calls did

Final: Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27

Called before kickoff: 1. Lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

23 rows on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Jalen Tolbert WR · MIA 12+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jalen TolbertWR · MIAReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 11.5: -117price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.6, median 16
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NYG2025 week 18
31v WAS2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 13
0v LV2025 week 11
47v DEN2025 week 8
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 27+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 26.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.4, median 25
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v NE2025 week 18
58v TB2025 week 17
46v CIN2025 week 16
46v PIT2025 week 15
41v NYJ2025 week 14
More players (8)
Jack Bech WR · LV 19+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Jack BechWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 18.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.9, median 17
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v KC2025 week 18
43v HOU2025 week 16
17v PHI2025 week 15
50v DEN2025 week 14
22v LAC2025 week 13
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 18+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 45 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 17.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17, median 11
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v KC2025 week 18
13v NYG2025 week 17
60v HOU2025 week 16
7v PHI2025 week 15
8v DEN2025 week 14
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 38+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 27 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 37.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.1, median 19
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
47v DAL2025 week 15
30v WAS2025 week 14
Devon Achane RB · MIA 28+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Devon AchaneRB · MIAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 30 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 27.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.8, median 14
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v TB2025 week 17
9v CIN2025 week 16
67v PIT2025 week 15
13v NYJ2025 week 14
0v NO2025 week 13
Tre Tucker WR · LV 47+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 27 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 46.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.2, median 25
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v KC2025 week 18
49v NYG2025 week 17
43v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
24v DEN2025 week 14
Michael Mayer TE · LV 41+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Michael MayerTE · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 40.5: -117price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22, median 15
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v KC2025 week 18
89v NYG2025 week 17
10v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
14v CLE2025 week 12
Brock Bowers TE · LV 64+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 63.5: -102price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.4, median 21
The line
63.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v HOU2025 week 16
28v PHI2025 week 15
46v DEN2025 week 14
63v LAC2025 week 13
55v CLE2025 week 12
Ian Thomas TE · LV 6+ receiving yardsno price held

Ian ThomasTE · LVReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10.8, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v DEN2025 week 14
8v LAC2025 week 13
36v CLE2025 week 12
20v DAL2025 week 11
9v JAX2025 week 9
Receptions10
Jalen Tolbert WR · MIA 2+ receptions+140price shown when this board was published

Jalen TolbertWR · MIAReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 1.5: -190price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NYG2025 week 18
4v WAS2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 13
0v LV2025 week 11
2v DEN2025 week 8
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 3+ receptions-114price shown when this board was published

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 2.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 18
5v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 15
3v NYJ2025 week 14
More players (8)
Jack Bech WR · LV 2+ receptions-148price shown when this board was published

Jack BechWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 1.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v KC2025 week 18
2v HOU2025 week 16
2v PHI2025 week 15
6v DEN2025 week 14
2v LAC2025 week 13
Ian Thomas TE · LV 2+ receptions+100price shown when this board was published

Ian ThomasTE · LVReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 1.5: -156price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DEN2025 week 14
1v LAC2025 week 13
4v CLE2025 week 12
1v DAL2025 week 11
1v JAX2025 week 9
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 4+ receptions+111price shown when this board was published

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 3.5: -138price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v KC2025 week 18
2v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
4v PHI2025 week 15
2v DEN2025 week 14
Devon Achane RB · MIA 5+ receptions+125price shown when this board was published

Devon AchaneRB · MIAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: -163price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
6v PIT2025 week 15
1v NYJ2025 week 14
0v NO2025 week 13
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 4+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 3.5: -157price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
3v DAL2025 week 15
3v WAS2025 week 14
Tre Tucker WR · LV 5+ receptions+110price shown when this board was published

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 4.5: -150price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v KC2025 week 18
5v NYG2025 week 17
4v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
2v DEN2025 week 14
Michael Mayer TE · LV 5+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Michael MayerTE · LVReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 4.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v KC2025 week 18
9v NYG2025 week 17
1v HOU2025 week 16
0v PHI2025 week 15
1v CLE2025 week 12
Brock Bowers TE · LV 6+ receptions-148price shown when this board was published

Brock BowersTE · LVReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -49pp

Under 5.5: +144price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v HOU2025 week 16
6v PHI2025 week 15
4v DEN2025 week 14
4v LAC2025 week 13
6v CLE2025 week 12
Rushing yards13
Devon Achane RB · MIA 69+ rushing yardsLost36 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Devon AchaneRB · MIARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 36 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 68.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 92.5, median 86
The line
68.5

His last 5, rushing yards

83v TB2025 week 17
81v CIN2025 week 16
60v PIT2025 week 15
92v NYJ2025 week 14
134v NO2025 week 13
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 60+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 102 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 59.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44, median 38
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

87v KC2025 week 18
60v NYG2025 week 17
128v HOU2025 week 16
35v PHI2025 week 15
30v DEN2025 week 14
More players (1)
Malik Willis QB · MIA 40+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Malik WillisQB · MIARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 39 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 39.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 23.6, median 15
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

60v BAL2025 week 17
44v CHI2025 week 16
3v MIN2025 week 12
16v NYG2025 week 11
3v CHI2024 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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