← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Market line MIN -1.5 · total 46.5

How our calls did

Final: Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

27 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards9
Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 23+ receiving yards-106price shown when this board was published

Jauan JenningsWR · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 22.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.5, median 22
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v SEA2025 week 20
45v PHI2025 week 19
35v SEA2025 week 18
42v CHI2025 week 17
71v IND2025 week 16
Aaron Jones RB · MIN 15+ receiving yards-117price shown when this board was published

Aaron JonesRB · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 14.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19, median 14
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v DET2025 week 17
8v NYG2025 week 16
31v DAL2025 week 15
0v WAS2025 week 14
22v SEA2025 week 13
More players (7)
T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 25+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 36 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 24.5: -118price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.4, median 22
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v NYG2025 week 16
66v DAL2025 week 15
12v WAS2025 week 14
59v SEA2025 week 13
19v GB2025 week 12
Christian Watson WR · GB 57+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 147 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 56.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.8, median 35
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

36v CHI2025 week 19
113v BAL2025 week 17
17v CHI2025 week 16
29v DEN2025 week 15
89v CHI2025 week 14
Jordan Addison WR · MIN 43+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jordan AddisonWR · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 42.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.9, median 23
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
26v NYG2025 week 16
66v DAL2025 week 15
62v WAS2025 week 14
Matthew Golden WR · GB 40+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 95 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 39.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.5, median 20
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

84v CHI2025 week 19
8v MIN2025 week 18
12v BAL2025 week 17
0v CHI2025 week 16
55v DEN2025 week 15
Jayden Reed WR · GB 44+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jayden ReedWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 43.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.6, median 23
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v CHI2025 week 19
41v BAL2025 week 17
35v CHI2025 week 16
55v DEN2025 week 15
31v CHI2025 week 14
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 45+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 65 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 44.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.8, median 25
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v CAR2025 week 9
143v PIT2025 week 8
58v ARI2025 week 7
43v CIN2025 week 6
56v DAL2025 week 4
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 74+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 92 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 73.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.8, median 37
The line
73.5

His last 5, receiving yards

101v GB2025 week 18
30v DET2025 week 17
85v NYG2025 week 16
22v DAL2025 week 15
11v WAS2025 week 14
Receptions9
Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 3+ receptions+130price shown when this board was published

Jauan JenningsWR · MINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 2.5: -170price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2025 week 20
1v PHI2025 week 19
4v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
5v IND2025 week 16
T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 4+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -160price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NYG2025 week 16
4v DAL2025 week 15
2v WAS2025 week 14
6v SEA2025 week 13
4v GB2025 week 12
More players (7)
Aaron Jones RB · MIN 3+ receptions-117price shown when this board was published

Aaron JonesRB · MINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 2.5: -105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DET2025 week 17
2v NYG2025 week 16
3v DAL2025 week 15
0v WAS2025 week 14
4v SEA2025 week 13
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 5+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 4.5: -160price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2025 week 9
7v PIT2025 week 8
5v ARI2025 week 7
2v CIN2025 week 6
5v DAL2025 week 4
Jordan Addison WR · MIN 4+ receptions-102price shown when this board was published

Jordan AddisonWR · MINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 3.5: -126price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
2v NYG2025 week 16
2v DAL2025 week 15
4v WAS2025 week 14
Matthew Golden WR · GB 4+ receptions+100price shown when this board was published

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 3.5: -126price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CHI2025 week 19
1v MIN2025 week 18
1v BAL2025 week 17
0v CHI2025 week 16
3v DEN2025 week 15
Jayden Reed WR · GB 4+ receptions-134price shown when this board was published

Jayden ReedWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 3.5: +108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CHI2025 week 19
4v BAL2025 week 17
3v CHI2025 week 16
5v DEN2025 week 15
4v CHI2025 week 14
Christian Watson WR · GB 4+ receptions-162price shown when this board was published

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 3.5: +129price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CHI2025 week 19
5v BAL2025 week 17
2v CHI2025 week 16
3v DEN2025 week 15
4v CHI2025 week 14
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 6+ receptions-144price shown when this board was published

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 5.5: +114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

8v GB2025 week 18
4v DET2025 week 17
6v NYG2025 week 16
2v DAL2025 week 15
2v WAS2025 week 14
Rushing yards17
Aaron Jones RB · MIN 30+ rushing yardsWon40 yds-114price shown when this board was published

Aaron JonesRB · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 88% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +35pp

Under 29.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 70.6, median 65
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

53v DET2025 week 17
85v NYG2025 week 16
34v DAL2025 week 15
76v WAS2025 week 14
3v SEA2025 week 13
Chris Brooks RB · GB 14+ rushing yards-107price shown when this board was published

Chris BrooksRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 13.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.4, median 9
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v CHI2025 week 19
61v MIN2025 week 18
0v BAL2025 week 17
4v CHI2025 week 16
10v DEN2025 week 15
More players (5)
Kyler Murray QB · MIN 24+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Kyler MurrayQB · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 23.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.8, median 18
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v TEN2025 week 5
41v SEA2025 week 4
37v SF2025 week 3
32v CAR2025 week 2
38v NO2025 week 1
Jordan Mason RB · MIN 45+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jordan MasonRB · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 59 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 44.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.5, median 37
The line
44.5

His last 5, rushing yards

94v GB2025 week 18
5v NYG2025 week 16
29v DAL2025 week 15
52v WAS2025 week 14
47v SEA2025 week 13
Jordan Love QB · GB 10+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 9.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.6, median 6
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v CHI2025 week 19
7v CHI2025 week 16
29v DEN2025 week 15
-1v CHI2025 week 14
4v DET2025 week 13
MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 45+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 37 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 44.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34.8, median 28
The line
44.5

His last 1, rushing yards

15v IND2024 week 2
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 44+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Justin JeffersonWR · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 1% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -52pp

Under 43.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2, median 0
The line
43.5

His last 5, rushing yards

3v GB2025 week 18
0v DET2025 week 17
0v NYG2025 week 16
0v DAL2025 week 15
0v WAS2025 week 14
Passing yards2
Jordan Love QB · GB 243+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 387 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 242.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209, median 204
The line
242.5

His last 5, passing yards

322v CHI2025 week 19
77v CHI2025 week 16
247v DEN2025 week 15
220v CHI2025 week 14
234v DET2025 week 13
Kyler Murray QB · MIN 221+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Kyler MurrayQB · MINPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 220.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 162.1, median 157
The line
220.5

His last 5, passing yards

192v TEN2025 week 5
164v SEA2025 week 4
154v SF2025 week 3
211v CAR2025 week 2
130v NO2025 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 1 NFL player props, every gameMinnesota Vikings season simulation and futures pricesGreen Bay Packers season simulation and futures pricesEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming