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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · Market line NYG +3 · total 47.5

How our calls did

Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28

Called before kickoff: 5. Lost 3, void 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

29 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards211
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 27+ receiving yardsLost22 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 68% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 26.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.2, median 42
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

68v NYG2025 week 18
18v LAC2025 week 16
40v MIN2025 week 15
115v DET2025 week 14
34v KC2025 week 13
Darius Slayton WR · NYG 14+ receiving yardsVoiddid not play-115price shown when this board was published

Darius SlaytonWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 13.5: -125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.7, median 25
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v DAL2025 week 18
36v LV2025 week 17
8v MIN2025 week 16
53v WAS2025 week 15
41v NE2025 week 13
More players (9)
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 16+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 15.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.3, median 18
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v MIN2025 week 16
72v WAS2025 week 15
29v NE2025 week 13
77v DET2025 week 12
36v GB2025 week 11
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 23+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 27 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 22.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.3, median 17
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v NO2025 week 18
35v LA2025 week 17
24v ARI2025 week 16
35v TB2025 week 15
6v SEA2025 week 14
George Pickens WR · DAL 68+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 28 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 67.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 66.1, median 57
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v NYG2025 week 18
78v WAS2025 week 17
130v LAC2025 week 16
33v MIN2025 week 15
37v DET2025 week 14
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 11+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 31 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 10.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.9, median 8
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v WAS2025 week 17
9v LAC2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 15
0v DET2025 week 14
21v KC2025 week 13
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 30+ receiving yards-120price shown when this board was published

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 29.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.2, median 23
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v NYG2025 week 18
6v WAS2025 week 17
19v LAC2025 week 16
16v MIN2025 week 15
58v DET2025 week 14
Cameron Skattebo RB · NYG 16+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Cameron SkatteboRB · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 15.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.2, median 8
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v PHI2025 week 8
34v DEN2025 week 7
12v PHI2025 week 6
45v NO2025 week 5
11v LAC2025 week 4
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 76+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 44 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 75.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.5, median 51
The line
75.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v NYG2025 week 18
46v WAS2025 week 17
51v LAC2025 week 16
111v MIN2025 week 15
121v DET2025 week 14
DoubtfulMalik Nabers WR · NYG 58+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 69 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - ACL - Full Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 vs. Dallas

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 57.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33, median 24
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v LAC2025 week 4
13v KC2025 week 3
167v DAL2025 week 2
71v WAS2025 week 1
64v PHI2024 week 18
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 38+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 78 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 37.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.9, median 11
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v PIT2025 week 18
27v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
25v PIT2025 week 14
95v CIN2025 week 13
Receptions211
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 3+ receptionsLost2 receptions+119price shown when this board was published

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 2.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v NYG2025 week 18
2v LAC2025 week 16
4v MIN2025 week 15
9v DET2025 week 14
3v KC2025 week 13
Darius Slayton WR · NYG 2+ receptionsVoiddid not play-102price shown when this board was published

Darius SlaytonWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 1.5: -137price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DAL2025 week 18
2v LV2025 week 17
1v MIN2025 week 16
4v WAS2025 week 15
2v NE2025 week 13
More players (9)
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 2+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 1.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v MIN2025 week 16
3v WAS2025 week 15
3v NE2025 week 13
3v DET2025 week 12
3v GB2025 week 11
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 2+ receptions-112price shown when this board was published

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 1.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
2v ARI2025 week 16
3v TB2025 week 15
1v SEA2025 week 14
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 4+ receptions-111price shown when this board was published

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NYG2025 week 18
1v WAS2025 week 17
3v LAC2025 week 16
2v MIN2025 week 15
5v DET2025 week 14
George Pickens WR · DAL 5+ receptions-155price shown when this board was published

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 4.5: +120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NYG2025 week 18
4v WAS2025 week 17
7v LAC2025 week 16
3v MIN2025 week 15
5v DET2025 week 14
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3+ receptions+130price shown when this board was published

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 2.5: -175price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v WAS2025 week 17
2v LAC2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 15
2v DET2025 week 14
3v KC2025 week 13
Cameron Skattebo RB · NYG 3+ receptions+111price shown when this board was published

Cameron SkatteboRB · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: -144price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2025 week 8
3v DEN2025 week 7
2v PHI2025 week 6
6v NO2025 week 5
2v LAC2025 week 4
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 7+ receptions+110price shown when this board was published

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 6.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NYG2025 week 18
5v WAS2025 week 17
6v LAC2025 week 16
6v MIN2025 week 15
6v DET2025 week 14
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 4+ receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 3.5: -133price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PIT2025 week 18
3v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
4v PIT2025 week 14
5v CIN2025 week 13
DoubtfulMalik Nabers WR · NYG 5+ receptions-155price shown when this board was published

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Knee - ACL - Full Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 1 vs. Dallas

DataPitch 11% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -50pp

Under 4.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2025 week 4
2v KC2025 week 3
9v DAL2025 week 2
5v WAS2025 week 1
5v PHI2024 week 18
Rushing yards15
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 75+ rushing yardsLost41 yds-115price shown when this board was published

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 41 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 71% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 74.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 104.6, median 99
The line
74.5

His last 5, rushing yards

54v WAS2025 week 17
34v LAC2025 week 16
91v MIN2025 week 15
67v DET2025 week 14
59v KC2025 week 13
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 8+ rushing yards-117price shown when this board was published

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 7.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.5, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v NYG2025 week 18
24v WAS2025 week 17
14v LAC2025 week 16
2v MIN2025 week 15
14v DET2025 week 14
More players (3)
Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 32+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Jaxson DartQB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 54 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 31.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 27.3, median 17
The line
31.5

His last 5, rushing yards

32v DAL2025 week 18
48v LV2025 week 17
7v MIN2025 week 16
63v WAS2025 week 15
20v NE2025 week 13
Cameron Skattebo RB · NYG 50+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Cameron SkatteboRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 81 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 49.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 40, median 31
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

12v PHI2025 week 8
60v DEN2025 week 7
98v PHI2025 week 6
59v NO2025 week 5
79v LAC2025 week 4
Najee Harris RB · NYG 18+ rushing yardsno price held

Najee HarrisRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.4, median 20
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

28v DEN2025 week 3
28v LV2025 week 2
5v KC2025 week 1
17v BAL2024 week 19
36v CIN2024 week 18
Passing yards2
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 264+ passing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 175 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 263.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 266.5, median 262
The line
263.5

His last 5, passing yards

70v NYG2025 week 18
269v WAS2025 week 17
238v LAC2025 week 16
285v MIN2025 week 15
328v DET2025 week 14
Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 214+ passing yards-109price shown when this board was published

Jaxson DartQB · NYGPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 230 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 213.5: -107price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 205.7, median 200
The line
213.5

His last 5, passing yards

219v DAL2025 week 18
188v LV2025 week 17
13v MIN2025 week 16
238v WAS2025 week 15
130v NE2025 week 13

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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