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Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Market line PIT -6.5 · total 40.5

How our calls did

Final: Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

31 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards11
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 15+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 14.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.3, median 18
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v SF2025 week 19
40v WAS2025 week 18
0v BUF2025 week 17
13v WAS2025 week 16
3v LAC2025 week 14
Roman Wilson WR · PIT 11+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Roman WilsonWR · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 26 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 10.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.2, median 11
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2025 week 13
0v CHI2025 week 12
17v CIN2025 week 11
35v LAC2025 week 10
4v IND2025 week 9
More players (9)
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 49+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 48.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.8, median 46
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v HOU2025 week 19
42v DET2025 week 16
55v MIA2025 week 15
148v BAL2025 week 14
32v BUF2025 week 13
Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 39+ receiving yards-117price shown when this board was published

Kyle PittsTE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 38.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.3, median 37
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v NO2025 week 18
16v LA2025 week 17
57v ARI2025 week 16
166v TB2025 week 15
90v SEA2025 week 14
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 11+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 10.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.7, median 9
The line
10.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v LA2025 week 19
20v TB2025 week 18
4v SEA2025 week 17
14v TB2025 week 16
5v NO2025 week 15
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 17+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 16.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.2, median 11
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v CLE2025 week 17
36v DET2025 week 16
25v MIA2025 week 15
12v BAL2025 week 14
45v BUF2025 week 13
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 34+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 90 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 33.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.3, median 26
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v NO2025 week 18
34v LA2025 week 17
92v ARI2025 week 16
82v TB2025 week 15
8v SEA2025 week 14
Drake London WR · ATL 55+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 54.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.7, median 41
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

78v NO2025 week 18
4v LA2025 week 17
27v ARI2025 week 16
119v CAR2025 week 11
104v IND2025 week 10
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 26+ receiving yards-118price shown when this board was published

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 46 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 25.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21, median 13
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v HOU2025 week 19
51v BAL2025 week 18
63v CLE2025 week 17
20v DET2025 week 16
45v MIA2025 week 15
Michael Pittman WR · PIT 40+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Michael PittmanWR · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 39.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.4, median 22
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v HOU2025 week 18
16v JAX2025 week 17
32v SF2025 week 16
26v SEA2025 week 15
79v JAX2025 week 14
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 20+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 27 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 19.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.3, median 6
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v HOU2025 week 19
33v BAL2025 week 18
0v CLE2025 week 17
8v DET2025 week 16
15v MIA2025 week 15
Receptions11
Roman Wilson WR · PIT 2+ receptions+122price shown when this board was published

Roman WilsonWR · PITReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 1.5: -160price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2025 week 13
0v CHI2025 week 12
1v CIN2025 week 11
2v LAC2025 week 10
1v IND2025 week 9
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 2+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 1.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v SF2025 week 19
3v WAS2025 week 18
0v BUF2025 week 17
3v WAS2025 week 16
1v LAC2025 week 14
More players (9)
Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 5+ receptions+113price shown when this board was published

Kyle PittsTE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 4.5: -145price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
7v ARI2025 week 16
11v TB2025 week 15
6v SEA2025 week 14
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 4+ receptions-135price shown when this board was published

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 3.5: +108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v HOU2025 week 19
4v DET2025 week 16
3v MIA2025 week 15
7v BAL2025 week 14
3v BUF2025 week 13
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 2+ receptions-163price shown when this board was published

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 1.5: +124price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2025 week 17
3v DET2025 week 16
3v MIA2025 week 15
1v BAL2025 week 14
2v BUF2025 week 13
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2+ receptions-162price shown when this board was published

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 1.5: +123price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LA2025 week 19
2v TB2025 week 18
3v SEA2025 week 17
4v TB2025 week 16
1v NO2025 week 15
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 5+ receptions+111price shown when this board was published

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 4.5: -141price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NO2025 week 18
5v LA2025 week 17
7v ARI2025 week 16
8v TB2025 week 15
2v SEA2025 week 14
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 3+ receptions-137price shown when this board was published

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 2.5: +106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2025 week 19
3v BAL2025 week 18
3v CLE2025 week 17
4v DET2025 week 16
3v MIA2025 week 15
Michael Pittman WR · PIT 5+ receptions+121price shown when this board was published

Michael PittmanWR · PITReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: -165price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v HOU2025 week 18
2v JAX2025 week 17
4v SF2025 week 16
3v SEA2025 week 15
9v JAX2025 week 14
Drake London WR · ATL 5+ receptions-159price shown when this board was published

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 4.5: +120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NO2025 week 18
1v LA2025 week 17
3v ARI2025 week 16
7v CAR2025 week 11
6v IND2025 week 10
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 3+ receptions-136price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 2.5: +104price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2025 week 19
5v BAL2025 week 18
0v CLE2025 week 17
2v DET2025 week 16
3v MIA2025 week 15
Rushing yards16
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 44+ rushing yardsWon46 yds-110price shown when this board was published

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 46 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 43.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 75.5, median 69
The line
43.5

His last 5, rushing yards

43v HOU2025 week 19
66v BAL2025 week 18
64v CLE2025 week 17
143v DET2025 week 16
33v MIA2025 week 15
DoubtfulCooper Rush QB · ATL 1+ rushing yards+125price shown when this board was published

Cooper RushQB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Back - Questionable for Week 1 at Pittsburgh

DataPitch 44% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 0.5: -217price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.3, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v LA2025 week 6
0v HOU2025 week 5
0v KC2025 week 4
-4v CLE2025 week 2
2v PHI2024 week 17
More players (4)
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 1+ rushing yards-106price shown when this board was published

Aaron RodgersQB · PITRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, -3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 0.5: -119price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.7, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v HOU2025 week 19
20v BAL2025 week 18
6v CLE2025 week 17
9v DET2025 week 16
0v MIA2025 week 15
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 47+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Rico DowdleRB · PITRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 46.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 49, median 42
The line
46.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
59v SEA2025 week 17
29v TB2025 week 16
49v NO2025 week 15
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 80+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 83 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 79.5: -118price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 77.2, median 71
The line
79.5

His last 5, rushing yards

33v NO2025 week 18
195v LA2025 week 17
76v ARI2025 week 16
93v TB2025 week 15
86v SEA2025 week 14
Brian Robinson RB · ATL 20+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Brian RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 31 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 19.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.9, median 9
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v SEA2025 week 20
0v PHI2025 week 19
9v SEA2025 week 18
22v CHI2025 week 17
20v IND2025 week 16
Passing yards3
DoubtfulCooper Rush QB · ATL 179+ passing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Cooper RushQB · ATLPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 143 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Back - Questionable for Week 1 at Pittsburgh

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 178.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 171.2, median 166
The line
178.5

His last 5, passing yards

72v LA2025 week 6
163v HOU2025 week 5
52v KC2025 week 4
140v PHI2024 week 17
286v TB2024 week 16
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 213+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 221 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 212.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 196.5, median 191
The line
212.5

His last 5, passing yards

110v HOU2025 week 19
290v BAL2025 week 18
160v CLE2025 week 17
251v DET2025 week 16
201v MIA2025 week 15
More players (1)
Mason Rudolph QB · PIT 220+ passing yards-186price shown when this board was published

Mason RudolphQB · PITPassing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 65%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 204.1, median 199
The line
219.5

His last 5, passing yards

2v HOU2025 week 19
0v BUF2025 week 13
159v CHI2025 week 12
127v CIN2025 week 11
12v SEA2025 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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