49 captures so far, 2026-08-17 to 2026-09-15. Every point is de-vigged; a bookmaker point is the consensus of the books quoting this runner that day.
Settles: End of Super Bowl LXI. Market-consistent, prices as of 2026-09-15T10:29:04+00:00.
+1400 on the board against our 8 percent once we shrink toward the market, a gap of +1.6 points. The season runs out at 11.4 wins on average with a good case of 15 across 20,000 simulated seasons. It is a watch, not a bet: once the tilt we apply to this whole market is taken out, 0.4 points of the 1.6 point gap is not about this team, leaving 1.1, under the 1.5 point bar a selection needs.
Sim it yourself →Board run Tue Sep 15, 6:31 AM ET
