v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso runs strict on cards, and 3 of the 5 rows we would back are Malaga's.
182 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Edu ExpósitoLDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
price too short
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
price too short
ChupeLCM · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
price too short
Ángel RecioRB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
David LarrubiaRM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Roger HinojoLB · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Roberto FernándezST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
RafitaRCB · #31Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
Javier HernandezCAM · #28Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
price too short
David LarrubiaRM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 98% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
our number here has no precedent, so we stand it down
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 40% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 57% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
Roberto FernándezST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 58% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
Javier HernandezCAM · #28Fouls drawn
DataPitch 52% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
price too short
Ángel RecioRB · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 31% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -46pp
price too short
Roger HinojoLB · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 30% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -47pp
price too short
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -52pp
price too short
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Ángel RecioRB · #15Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Roberto FernándezST · #9Tackles
DataPitch 13% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too long
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 46% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Tackles
DataPitch 13% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Roger HinojoLB · #21Tackles
DataPitch 47% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Javier HernandezCAM · #28Tackles
DataPitch 25% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
price too short
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Tackles
DataPitch 28% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
price too short
David LarrubiaRM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -47pp
price too short
Ángel RecioRB · #15Shots
DataPitch 52% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap +12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ChupeLCM · #9Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Roberto FernándezST · #9Shots
DataPitch 91% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Shots
DataPitch 42% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Shots
DataPitch 81% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
David LarrubiaRM · #10Shots
DataPitch 82% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Edu ExpósitoLDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 71% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Javier HernandezCAM · #28Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Roger HinojoLB · #21Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Shots
DataPitch 3% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RafitaRCB · #31Shots
DataPitch 0% · Market 30%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Shots
DataPitch 21% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ángel RecioRB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 8% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RafitaRCB · #31Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Roger HinojoLB · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Roberto FernándezST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 48% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Edu ExpósitoLDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Javier HernandezCAM · #28Shots on target
DataPitch 46% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
David LarrubiaRM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ChupeLCM · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 41% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25To be booked
DataPitch 43% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +22pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Roger HinojoLB · #21To be booked
DataPitch 34% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
David LarrubiaRM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +11pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Omar El HilaliRB · #23To be booked
DataPitch 31% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Eneko JauregiST · #17To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
ChupeLCM · #9To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Unai NúñezRCB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 27% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RafitaRCB · #31To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José SalinasLB · #12To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dani LorenzoLM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alfonso HerreroGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Edu ExpósitoLDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Roberto FernándezST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Carlos DotorRCM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marko DmitrovićGK · #13To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
level in the air (183cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 3%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
level in the air (184cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Roger HinojoLB · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
level in the air (180cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
José SalinasLB · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 6%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
gives up height in the air (164cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Álex CalatravaRM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
David LarrubiaRM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Marko DmitrovićGK · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (194cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Eneko JauregiST · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (184cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ChupeLCM · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (185cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alfonso HerreroGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Edu ExpósitoLDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dani LorenzoLM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Unai NúñezRCB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11% · Market 3%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
Ángel RecioRB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
Javier HernandezCAM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 31% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
shoots from range 1.0 times a game across 7 logged matches
Leandro CabreraLCB · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 4 logged matches
José SalinasLB · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
Carlos DotorRCM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Omar El HilaliRB · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Juan BerrocalLCB · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 3%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
Roberto FernándezST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 9 logged matches
Urko GonzálezRDM · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
Roger HinojoLB · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
David LarrubiaRM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
Álex CalatravaRM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 7 logged matches
Bryan ZaragozaLM · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 4 logged matches
Edu ExpósitoLDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 35%
shoots from range 1.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
ChupeLCM · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20%
shoots from range 1.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
Rafael RodríguezDM · #14Rafael RodríguezDM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
Marko DmitrovićGK · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Dani LorenzoLM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Alfonso HerreroGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Eneko JauregiST · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
RafitaRCB · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
strict, 20 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 2.35/match · Away 2.70/match
6/match in tight games · 5.75/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.