v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Vassilis Fotias runs average on cards, and 7 of the 7 rows we would back are Spain's.
221 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Robin HranáčRCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
price too short
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
price too short
Lamine YamalRM · #19Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
price too short
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Marc PubillRB · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Adam HložekST · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Martin VitíkRB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
RodriRDM · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12Fouls drawn
DataPitch 82% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Martin VitíkRB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 25% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Robin HranáčRCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 25% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lamine YamalRM · #19Fouls drawn
DataPitch 71% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 51% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Marc PubillRB · #12Fouls drawn
DataPitch 49% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 52% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Adam HložekST · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 49% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
RodriRDM · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
price too short
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -45pp
price too short
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -45pp
price too short
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
price too long
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Tackles
DataPitch 29% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Adam HložekST · #10Tackles
DataPitch 29% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Tackles
DataPitch 37% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Martin VitíkRB · #14Tackles
DataPitch 50% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Robin HranáčRCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 22% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 40% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 34% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Tackles
DataPitch 28% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marc PubillRB · #12Tackles
DataPitch 54% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 48% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RodriRDM · #16Tackles
DataPitch 56% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Tackles
DataPitch 46% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12Tackles
DataPitch 37% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Tackles
DataPitch 55% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Lamine YamalRM · #19Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -48pp
price too short
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12Shots
DataPitch 70% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap +26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Martin VitíkRB · #14Shots
DataPitch 35% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Robin HranáčRCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 21% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Adam HložekST · #10Shots
DataPitch 81% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 65% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Shots
DataPitch 98% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Shots
DataPitch 52% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lamine YamalRM · #19Shots
DataPitch 99% · Market 99%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Shots
DataPitch 97% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Shots
DataPitch 94% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Shots
DataPitch 18% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Shots
DataPitch 4% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RodriRDM · #16Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Shots
DataPitch 25% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marc PubillRB · #12Shots
DataPitch 29% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Martin VitíkRB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Robin HranáčRCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Adam HložekST · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lamine YamalRM · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 80% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marc PubillRB · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RodriRDM · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 61% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 50% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 3 cards.
Marc PubillRB · #12To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +20pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
RodriRDM · #16To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Lamine YamalRM · #19To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marc CucurellaLB · #22To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dani OlmoCAM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Fabián RuizLDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nico WilliamsLM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Martin VitíkRB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ondřej LingrLM · #20To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Unai SimónGK · #23To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Michal SadílekLDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Adam HložekST · #10To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Robin HranáčRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jiří SlámaLB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alex KrálCAM · #21To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matěj KovářGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matěj RadostaRM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Adam HložekST · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
level in the air (182cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alex KrálCAM · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
gives up height in the air (169cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RodriRDM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
level in the air (179cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
level in the air (181cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
level in the air (181cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Unai SimónGK · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Matěj KovářGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (184cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 15 logged matches
Mikel OyarzabalST · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 38% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 15 logged matches
Adam HložekST · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 10 logged matches
Martin VitíkRB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
no shots from outside the box in the 6 matches we have logged
Štěpán ChaloupekLCB · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Robin HranáčRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
Lukáš ČervRDM · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 5 logged matches
Alex KrálCAM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
Jiří SlámaLB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 3%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
no shots from outside the box in the 3 matches we have logged
Aymeric LaporteLCB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 15 logged matches
Ondřej LingrLM · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Michal SadílekLDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 6%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Marc PubillRB · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 15 logged matches
Matěj RadostaRM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Marc CucurellaLB · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 15 logged matches
Dani OlmoCAM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 29% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 15 logged matches
Fabián RuizLDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 15 logged matches
RodriRDM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 15 logged matches
Nico WilliamsLM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 15 logged matches
Lamine YamalRM · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 50% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
shoots from range 1.4 times a game across 15 logged matches
Unai SimónGK · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 15 matches we have logged
Matěj KovářGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 13 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Vassilis Fotias will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 84 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.08/match · Away 2.55/match
4.25/match in tight games · 3.78/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.