v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Anderson Daronco runs average on cards, and 3 of the 4 rows we would back are Santos's.
230 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Fouls committed
DataPitch 69% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
JorginhoLDM · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
RodineiRB · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Samuel LinoLM · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Luan PeresLCB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 41% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
PedroST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Alex SandroLB · #26Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 37% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Fouls drawn
DataPitch 57% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
RodineiRB · #23Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Luan PeresLCB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 41% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Fouls drawn
DataPitch 57% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Alex SandroLB · #26Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Samuel LinoLM · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 63% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
JorginhoLDM · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 56% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
PedroST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 41% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
price too short
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
price too long
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RodineiRB · #23Tackles
DataPitch 49% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Samuel LinoLM · #16Tackles
DataPitch 49% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Tackles
DataPitch 13% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Tackles
DataPitch 55% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JorginhoLDM · #21Tackles
DataPitch 28% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Tackles
DataPitch 56% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Tackles
DataPitch 44% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
price too short
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Tackles
DataPitch 24% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Tackles
DataPitch 40% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
price too short
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Tackles
DataPitch 40% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
price too short
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Shots
DataPitch 92% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
PedroST · #9Shots
DataPitch 93% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Shots
DataPitch 90% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 47% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Shots
DataPitch 47% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RodineiRB · #23Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Samuel LinoLM · #16Shots
DataPitch 81% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 33% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luan PeresLCB · #14Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Shots
DataPitch 76% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JorginhoLDM · #21Shots
DataPitch 40% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Shots
DataPitch 14% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alex SandroLB · #26Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -42pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -52pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RodineiRB · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Shots on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luan PeresLCB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 8% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JorginhoLDM · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alex SandroLB · #26Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 53% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
PedroST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 66% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Samuel LinoLM · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 46% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 5 cards.
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31To be booked
DataPitch 43% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15To be booked
DataPitch 33% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Erick PulgarRDM · #5To be booked
DataPitch 42% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 30%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Willian ArãoLDM · #15To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JorginhoLDM · #21To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Agustín RossiGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Samuel LinoLM · #16To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 27% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Léo PereiraLCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
PedroST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Christian OlivaRDM · #28To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RodineiRB · #23To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Léo OrtizRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alex SandroLB · #26To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luan PeresLCB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 43%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
EmersonRB · #22EmersonRB · #22To be booked
DataPitch 27%
no price
Luan PeresLCB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 21%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 19%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
PedroST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Agustín RossiGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
EmersonRB · #22EmersonRB · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
level in the air (181cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
DiógenesGK · #1DiógenesGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alex SandroLB · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (180cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (182cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (171cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RodineiRB · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
level in the air (180cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
JorginhoLDM · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
level in the air (180cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
level in the air (180cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Samuel LinoLM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (166cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Samuel LinoLM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 25%
shoots from range 1.0 times a game across 8 logged matches
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 7 logged matches
Lucas PaquetáCAM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 8 logged matches
Benjamín RollheiserCAM · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 9 logged matches
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
Erick PulgarRDM · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 8 logged matches
PedroST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 9 logged matches
JorginhoLDM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
RodineiRB · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 5 logged matches
Léo PereiraLCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 13 logged matches
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 5 logged matches
Christian OlivaRDM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 10 logged matches
Luan PeresLCB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
Willian ArãoLDM · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
Alex SandroLB · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
EmersonRB · #22EmersonRB · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Jorge CarrascalRM · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 12 logged matches
Léo OrtizRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Agustín RossiGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
DiógenesGK · #1DiógenesGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Anderson Daronco will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 186 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 1.96/match · Away 2.21/match
4.69/match in tight games · 3.39/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.