v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Braulio da Silva Machado runs strict on cards, and the 2 rows we would back lean evenly between the two sides.
239 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
KanuLCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 72% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
price too short
Marcos VictorRB · #44Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
MaurícioRAM · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
price too short
MuriloLCB · #26Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alejo VélizST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 68% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 73% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Vitor RoqueST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Erick PulgaLW · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
David DuarteRCB · #33Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Fouls committed
DataPitch 69% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 71% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
José LópezLAM · #42Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Luciano JubaLB · #46Fouls committed
DataPitch 47% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
ErickRCM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
KanuLCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap +16pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Alejo VélizST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 75% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
David DuarteRCB · #33Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José LópezLAM · #42Fouls drawn
DataPitch 73% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
MuriloLCB · #26Fouls drawn
DataPitch 32% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marcos VictorRB · #44Fouls drawn
DataPitch 41% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MaurícioRAM · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 64% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
ErickRCM · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 51% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Fouls drawn
DataPitch 68% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 54% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 23% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Vitor RoqueST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 70% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Erick PulgaLW · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 66% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Luciano JubaLB · #46Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Vitor RoqueST · #9Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
price too long
Marcos VictorRB · #44Tackles
DataPitch 50% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
David DuarteRCB · #33Tackles
DataPitch 29% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alejo VélizST · #9Tackles
DataPitch 16% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
price too long
José LópezLAM · #42Tackles
DataPitch 31% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luciano JubaLB · #46Tackles
DataPitch 37% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Tackles
DataPitch 41% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
KanuLCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 21% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Tackles
DataPitch 43% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 32% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 47% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Tackles
DataPitch 57% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
Erick PulgaLW · #16Tackles
DataPitch 28% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
price too short
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Tackles
DataPitch 25% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -42pp
price too short
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Tackles
DataPitch 29% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -46pp
price too short
Alejo VélizST · #9Shots
DataPitch 97% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ErickRCM · #14Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
José LópezLAM · #42Shots
DataPitch 96% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Erick PulgaLW · #16Shots
DataPitch 70% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
David DuarteRCB · #33Shots
DataPitch 50% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marcos VictorRB · #44Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Vitor RoqueST · #9Shots
DataPitch 93% · Market 99%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MaurícioRAM · #18Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Shots
DataPitch 75% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
KanuLCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 18% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luciano JubaLB · #46Shots
DataPitch 44% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MuriloLCB · #26Shots
DataPitch 44% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 37% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Shots
DataPitch 60% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Shots
DataPitch 23% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Shots
DataPitch 21% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -48pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -56pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -59pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
David DuarteRCB · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MuriloLCB · #26Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
KanuLCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ErickRCM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 32% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luciano JubaLB · #46Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Erick PulgaLW · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Shots on target
DataPitch 42% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 32% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marcos VictorRB · #44Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Vitor RoqueST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 62% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alejo VélizST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
José LópezLAM · #42Shots on target
DataPitch 54% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MaurícioRAM · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 52% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gustavo GómezCB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 28% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José LópezLAM · #42To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Vitor RoqueST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andreas PereiraRM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alejo VélizST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
KanuLCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 32% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Erick PulgaLW · #16To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Agustín GiayRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5To be booked
DataPitch 38% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 27% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Cristian OliveraRW · #99To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luciano JubaLB · #46To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
David DuarteRCB · #33To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marcos VictorRB · #44To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 49%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
ErickRCM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 31%
no price
MuriloLCB · #26To be booked
DataPitch 22%
no price
MaurícioRAM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 10%
no price
RonaldoGK · #1RonaldoGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
David DuarteRCB · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 24%
wins headers against a smaller marker (192cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Carlos MiguelGK · #1Carlos MiguelGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 22%
wins headers against a smaller marker (200cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MuriloLCB · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alejo VélizST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
level in the air (186cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RonaldoGK · #1RonaldoGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (194cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
KanuLCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
level in the air (186cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
level in the air (185cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
José LópezLAM · #42Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (185cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (184cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Vitor RoqueST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Erick PulgaLW · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (169cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Luciano JubaLB · #46Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MaurícioRAM · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ErickRCM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MaurícioRAM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 21%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 13 logged matches
Andreas PereiraRM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 21%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 9 logged matches
José LópezLAM · #42Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 15 logged matches
Lucas EvangelistaLCM · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
Marlon FreitasRCM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 8 logged matches
Rodrigo NestorLCM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 1.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
Agustín GiayRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
ErickRCM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 6 logged matches
Joaquín PiquerezLM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 10 logged matches
Gustavo GómezCB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 13 logged matches
MuriloLCB · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 8 logged matches
Erick PulgaLW · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 8 logged matches
Alejo VélizST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 8 logged matches
Vitor RoqueST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
Nicolás AcevedoCM · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
Carlos MiguelGK · #1Carlos MiguelGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Cristian OliveraRW · #99Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 5 logged matches
David DuarteRCB · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 8 logged matches
Luciano JubaLB · #46Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
RonaldoGK · #1RonaldoGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
KanuLCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Marcos VictorRB · #44Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Braulio da Silva Machado will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
strict, 128 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 2.87/match · Away 2.91/match
5.34/match in tight games · 5.37/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.