v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Christopher Penso runs strict on cards, and 2 of the 2 rows we would back are Charlotte's.
165 lines on 6 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
H. KesslerRCB · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap +15pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
T. ReamLCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 45% · Market 43%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pep BielLM · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
D. SchneggLB · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
A. GutmanLB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
S. RogersRCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
M. Haile-SelassieRCM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
N. ByrneRB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 41% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. DeanRB · #24Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
A. Saint-MaximinCAM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
P. ZinckernagelLW · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
A. WestwoodRDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
J. ElliottLCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
H. ToffoloLDM · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 45% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
A. SalétrosCM · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
A. GutmanLB · #15Shots
DataPitch 84% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap +15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. LewandowskiST · #9Shots
DataPitch 98% · Market 99%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. Haile-SelassieRCM · #7Shots
DataPitch 85% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. ZinckernagelLW · #11Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. SalétrosCM · #6Shots
DataPitch 59% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pep BielLM · #16Shots
DataPitch 87% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. AbadaRM · #11Shots
DataPitch 83% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ElliottLCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. SchneggLB · #23Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. Saint-MaximinCAM · #10Shots
DataPitch 68% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. WestwoodRDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 33% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
H. ToffoloLDM · #15Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
H. KesslerRCB · #22Shots
DataPitch 9% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. ReamLCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 1% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. RogersRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. LodRW · #17Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. ByrneRB · #14Shots
DataPitch 3% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. DeanRB · #24Shots
DataPitch 3% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. SalétrosCM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 32% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. GutmanLB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. RogersRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. WestwoodRDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
H. KesslerRCB · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. SchneggLB · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. DeanRB · #24Shots on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. ByrneRB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. ReamLCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. Haile-SelassieRCM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 45% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
H. ToffoloLDM · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 8% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ElliottLCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. ZinckernagelLW · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 51% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. LewandowskiST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 65% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. AbadaRM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 53% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. Saint-MaximinCAM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 48% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pep BielLM · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 53% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. LodRW · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
D. SchneggLB · #23To be booked
DataPitch 41% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
A. GutmanLB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. DeanRB · #24To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. ZinckernagelLW · #11To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. ByrneRB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
L. AbadaRM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. WestwoodRDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
H. ToffoloLDM · #15To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pep BielLM · #16To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. ElliottLCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. LodRW · #17To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. Saint-MaximinCAM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. ReamLCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. SalétrosCM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
H. KesslerRCB · #22To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
S. RogersRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. LewandowskiST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. KahlinaGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
M. Haile-SelassieRCM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. BradyGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. D'AvillaLCM · #42To be booked
DataPitch 43%
no price
I. Toklomati GiornoST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
J. ElliottLCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 36%
wins headers against a smaller marker (198cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
S. RogersRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 26%
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
H. KesslerRCB · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 25%
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. LewandowskiST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
level in the air (185cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. SchneggLB · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (185cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
C. BradyGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. D'AvillaLCM · #42Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
H. ToffoloLDM · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. ReamLCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. LodRW · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. ByrneRB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. SalétrosCM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. Saint-MaximinCAM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. ZinckernagelLW · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
L. AbadaRM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (165cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. GutmanLB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. DeanRB · #24Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. WestwoodRDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Pep BielLM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (167cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
M. Haile-SelassieRCM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. Saint-MaximinCAM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 44%
shoots from range 1.6 times a game across 6 logged matches
L. AbadaRM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 9 logged matches
Pep BielLM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 16%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 9 logged matches
A. SalétrosCM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 8 logged matches
P. ZinckernagelLW · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
D. SchneggLB · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 6 logged matches
A. WestwoodRDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
M. Haile-SelassieRCM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 10 logged matches
I. Toklomati GiornoST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
R. LewandowskiST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 10 logged matches
H. ToffoloLDM · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 4 logged matches
T. D'AvillaLCM · #42Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 10 logged matches
R. LodRW · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 10 logged matches
J. ElliottLCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
K. KahlinaGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
T. ReamLCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 13 matches we have logged
N. ByrneRB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
H. KesslerRCB · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
A. GutmanLB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 10 logged matches
S. RogersRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
J. DeanRB · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
C. BradyGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 15 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Christopher Penso will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
strict, 113 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.34/match · Away 2.35/match
4.97/match in tight games · 4.58/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.