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The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Serhiy Boiko runs average on cards, and 2 of the 2 rows we would back are Vancouver Whitecaps's.
124 lines on 5 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Emmanuel SabbiLM · #11Shots
DataPitch 97% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Brian WhiteST · #24Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 99%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Édier OcampoRB · #18Shots
DataPitch 65% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Philip ZinckernagelRM · #11Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Anton SalétrosLCM · #6Shots
DataPitch 59% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Thomas MüllerCAM · #13Shots
DataPitch 84% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Maren Haile-SelassieLM · #7Shots
DataPitch 81% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jack ElliottRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 52% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mathías LabordaLCB · #2Shots
DataPitch 69% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tristan BlackmonRCB · #33Shots
DataPitch 42% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andrew GutmanLB · #15Shots
DataPitch 50% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Adrián CubasLDM · #20Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mbekezeli MbokaziLCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jonathan DeanRB · #24Shots
DataPitch 3% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tate JohnsonLB · #28Shots
DataPitch 12% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jeevan BadwalRM · #59Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -59pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Anton SalétrosLCM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 32% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mbekezeli MbokaziLCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jonathan DeanRB · #24Shots on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Édier OcampoRB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tristan BlackmonRCB · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tate JohnsonLB · #28Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Brian WhiteST · #24Shots on target
DataPitch 68% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emmanuel SabbiLM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 55% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jack ElliottRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Adrián CubasLDM · #20Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Thomas MüllerCAM · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 51% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Maren Haile-SelassieLM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andrew GutmanLB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jeevan BadwalRM · #59Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Philip ZinckernagelRM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mathías LabordaLCB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
Édier OcampoRB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 39% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Adrián CubasLDM · #20To be booked
DataPitch 38% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Jonathan DeanRB · #24To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andrew GutmanLB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tristan BlackmonRCB · #33To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Emmanuel SabbiLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Philip ZinckernagelRM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tate JohnsonLB · #28To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Brian WhiteST · #24To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mathías LabordaLCB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Christopher MuellerRS · #8To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Anton SalétrosLCM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jeevan BadwalRM · #59To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mbekezeli MbokaziLCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Yohei TakaokaGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Thomas MüllerCAM · #13To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Christopher BradyGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
42Tah D'AvillaRCM · #42Tah D'AvillaRCM · #42To be booked
DataPitch 40%
no price
Jack ElliottRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 37%
wins headers against a smaller marker (198cm over a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Tristan BlackmonRCB · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
9Hugo CuypersLS · #9Hugo CuypersLS · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Christopher BradyGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
42Tah D'AvillaRCM · #42Tah D'AvillaRCM · #42Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Mathías LabordaLCB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
level in the air (182cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Brian WhiteST · #24Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Thomas MüllerCAM · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Anton SalétrosLCM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
wins headers against a smaller marker (183cm over a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Andrew GutmanLB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (178cm against a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Christopher MuellerRS · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Yohei TakaokaGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (182cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jonathan DeanRB · #24Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Tate JohnsonLB · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Édier OcampoRB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jeevan BadwalRM · #59Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Maren Haile-SelassieLM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
level in the air (177cm against a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Philip ZinckernagelRM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 178cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Emmanuel SabbiLM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Adrián CubasLDM · #20Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (163cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
16Sebastian BerhalterRDM · #16Sebastian BerhalterRDM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Thomas MüllerCAM · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 17%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 10 logged matches
9Hugo CuypersLS · #9Hugo CuypersLS · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
2.3 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Emmanuel SabbiLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 9 logged matches
Brian WhiteST · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
Philip ZinckernagelRM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 10 logged matches
Christopher MuellerRS · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
1.5 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Anton SalétrosLCM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 8 logged matches
16Sebastian BerhalterRDM · #16Sebastian BerhalterRDM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 15 logged matches
Édier OcampoRB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
Adrián CubasLDM · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 14 logged matches
Maren Haile-SelassieLM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 11 logged matches
Tristan BlackmonRCB · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 11 logged matches
Mathías LabordaLCB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 11 logged matches
Mbekezeli MbokaziLCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 5 logged matches
42Tah D'AvillaRCM · #42Tah D'AvillaRCM · #42Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 11 logged matches
Jack ElliottRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 11 logged matches
Yohei TakaokaGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
Tate JohnsonLB · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 11 logged matches
Jeevan BadwalRM · #59Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 8 logged matches
Andrew GutmanLB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 11 logged matches
Jonathan DeanRB · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
Christopher BradyGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 15 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Serhiy Boiko will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 42 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.36/match · Away 1.93/match
4.92/match in tight games · 3.69/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.
