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Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Week 8 · Thu Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET · Market line GB -3.5 · total 47.5

How our calls did

Final: Carolina Panthers 19, Green Bay Packers 27

Called before kickoff: 1. Lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Wed 28 Oct, 23:38 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Darren Waller TE · CAR 20+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Darren WallerTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 19.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27, median 21
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v TB2026 week 7
0v PHI2026 week 6
36v DET2026 week 4
51v CLE2026 week 3
33v ATL2026 week 2

His other lines in this market

21+ receiving yardsDataPitch 50% · Market 54%-116Bet365
John Metchie III WR · CAR 16+ receiving yards-109DraftKings

John Metchie IIIWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 15.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.4, median 16
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v TB2026 week 7
24v PHI2026 week 6
37v DET2026 week 4
19v CLE2026 week 3
0v ATL2026 week 2
More players (8)
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 45+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 44.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.6, median 37
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v DET2026 week 7
37v DAL2026 week 6
64v CHI2026 week 5
42v TB2026 week 4
26v ATL2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

46+ receiving yardsDataPitch 38% · Market 54%-116Bet365
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 15+ receiving yards-119DraftKings

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 14.5: -108DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.9, median 9
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v TB2026 week 7
46v PHI2026 week 6
12v DET2026 week 4
41v CLE2026 week 3
4v ATL2026 week 2

His other lines in this market

18+ receiving yardsDataPitch 30% · Market 54%-116Bet365
Christian Watson WR · GB 70+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 113 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.5, median 51
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v DET2026 week 7
64v DAL2026 week 6
143v CHI2026 week 5
47v TB2026 week 4
96v ATL2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

73+ receiving yardsDataPitch 32% · Market 54%-116Bet365
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 15+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 38 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 14.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13, median 9
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v TB2026 week 7
1v PHI2026 week 6
7v DET2026 week 4
28v CLE2026 week 3
11v ATL2026 week 2
Josh Jacobs RB · GB 17+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Josh JacobsRB · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 16.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.7, median 10
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

55v DET2026 week 7
3v CHI2025 week 19
0v BAL2025 week 17
12v CHI2025 week 16
19v DEN2025 week 15

His other lines in this market

18+ receiving yardsDataPitch 32% · Market 54%-116DraftKings
DoubtfulJalen Coker WR · CAR 62+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 36 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 8 at Green Bay

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 61.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.2, median 35
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v TB2026 week 7
97v PHI2026 week 6
18v CLE2026 week 3
66v ATL2026 week 2
138v CHI2026 week 1
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 72+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 71.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.1, median 32
The line
71.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v TB2026 week 7
86v PHI2026 week 6
192v DET2026 week 4
17v CLE2026 week 3
101v ATL2026 week 2
Matthew Golden WR · GB 58+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 79 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.9, median 31
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

39v DET2026 week 7
104v DAL2026 week 6
123v CHI2026 week 5
21v TB2026 week 4
100v ATL2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

61+ receiving yardsDataPitch 20% · Market 54%-116Bet365
Receptions10
John Metchie III WR · CAR 2+ receptions-130DraftKings

John Metchie IIIWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 1.5: +101DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TB2026 week 7
2v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
2v CLE2026 week 3
0v ATL2026 week 2

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 38% · Market 40%+150Bet365
Darren Waller TE · CAR 3+ receptions+150Bet365

Darren WallerTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 2.5: -192Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TB2026 week 7
0v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
5v CLE2026 week 3
3v ATL2026 week 2
More players (8)
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 5+ receptions+120Bet365

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 4.5: -152Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DET2026 week 7
5v DAL2026 week 6
5v CHI2026 week 5
6v TB2026 week 4
4v ATL2026 week 3
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3+ receptions+119DraftKings

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: -154DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v TB2026 week 7
1v PHI2026 week 6
1v DET2026 week 4
4v CLE2026 week 3
2v ATL2026 week 2
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 3+ receptions+122DraftKings

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: -156DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TB2026 week 7
4v PHI2026 week 6
4v DET2026 week 4
3v CLE2026 week 3
1v ATL2026 week 2
Josh Jacobs RB · GB 3+ receptions-125Bet365

Josh JacobsRB · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 2.5: -105Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DET2026 week 7
1v CHI2025 week 19
1v BAL2025 week 17
2v CHI2025 week 16
2v DEN2025 week 15
Christian Watson WR · GB 5+ receptions-119DraftKings

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: -108DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DET2026 week 7
3v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
3v TB2026 week 4
7v ATL2026 week 3
DoubtfulJalen Coker WR · CAR 5+ receptions-135Bet365

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 8 at Green Bay

DataPitch 22% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 4.5: +105Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TB2026 week 7
6v PHI2026 week 6
2v CLE2026 week 3
8v ATL2026 week 2
8v CHI2026 week 1
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6+ receptions+118DraftKings

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 8% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 5.5: -152DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v TB2026 week 7
6v PHI2026 week 6
14v DET2026 week 4
2v CLE2026 week 3
5v ATL2026 week 2
Matthew Golden WR · GB 5+ receptions-118DraftKings

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 4.5: -110DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v DET2026 week 7
6v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
3v TB2026 week 4
5v ATL2026 week 3
Rushing yards16
MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 18+ rushing yardsLost7 yds-110DraftKings

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 17.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.2, median 25
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

20v DET2026 week 7
10v DAL2026 week 6
31v CHI2026 week 5
13v TB2026 week 4
11v ATL2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

19+ rushing yardsDataPitch 63% · Market 54%-116Bet365
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 68+ rushing yards-112DraftKings

Chuba HubbardRB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 81 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 67.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 63.6, median 58
The line
67.5

His last 5, rushing yards

33v TB2026 week 7
120v PHI2026 week 6
122v DET2026 week 4
82v CLE2026 week 3
53v ATL2026 week 2
More players (4)
Josh Jacobs RB · GB 60+ rushing yards-111DraftKings

Josh JacobsRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 39 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 59.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 51.1, median 45
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v DET2026 week 7
55v CHI2025 week 19
3v BAL2025 week 17
36v CHI2025 week 16
73v DEN2025 week 15
Jordan Love QB · GB 6+ rushing yards-105DraftKings

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 5.5: -119DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.2, median 0
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v DET2026 week 7
12v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
-8v TB2026 week 4
0v ATL2026 week 3
Bryce Young QB · CAR 9+ rushing yards-120Bet365

Bryce YoungQB · CARRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 8.5: -111Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.4, median 2
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v TB2026 week 7
6v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
0v CLE2026 week 3
6v ATL2026 week 2

His other lines in this market

11+ rushing yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 53%-112DraftKings
Savion Williams WR · GB 4+ rushing yards-120Bet365

Savion WilliamsWR · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 8% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -47pp

Under 3.5: -111Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1.1, median 0
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

4v DET2026 week 7
9v DAL2026 week 6
9v CHI2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 12
0v NYG2025 week 11
Passing yards2
Bryce Young QB · CAR 254+ passing yards-111DraftKings

Bryce YoungQB · CARPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 209 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 253.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 177, median 173
The line
253.5

His last 5, passing yards

131v TB2026 week 7
273v PHI2026 week 6
318v DET2026 week 4
262v CLE2026 week 3
272v ATL2026 week 2
Jordan Love QB · GB 257+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 288 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated passing yards
average 218.9, median 213
The line
256.5

His last 5, passing yards

264v DET2026 week 7
261v DAL2026 week 6
360v CHI2026 week 5
197v TB2026 week 4
311v ATL2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

260+ passing yardsDataPitch 27% · Market 54%-116Bet365

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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