DATAPITCH
← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYJ -2.5 · total 39.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 12 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Cleveland Browns players.

Strongest of themHarold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 6 Oct, 15:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

12 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards13
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 36+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 78% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 35.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 65.6, median 60
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v PIT2026 week 4
51v CAR2026 week 3
54v TB2026 week 2
21v JAX2026 week 1
30v PIT2025 week 17
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 69+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 68.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 50.5, median 46
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v CHI2026 week 4
107v DET2026 week 3
57v GB2026 week 2
79v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
More players (1)
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 16+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 67%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28, median 24
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v PIT2026 week 4
9v CAR2026 week 3
27v TB2026 week 2
17v JAX2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 16
Receptions13
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 5+ receptions+121consensus market price

Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 69% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 4.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.1, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PIT2026 week 4
7v CAR2026 week 3
5v TB2026 week 2
2v JAX2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 17
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 7+ receptions-104consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 13% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 6.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CHI2026 week 4
10v DET2026 week 3
5v GB2026 week 2
6v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
More players (1)
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-06 capture; an older price is not shown

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 58%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

6v PIT2026 week 4
2v CAR2026 week 3
5v TB2026 week 2
2v JAX2026 week 1
5v BUF2025 week 16
Rushing yards5
Isaiah Davis RB · NYJ 12+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Isaiah DavisRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 11.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.9, median 24
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CHI2026 week 4
0v DET2026 week 3
0v GB2026 week 2
11v NE2025 week 17
8v NO2025 week 16
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 11+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 10.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19.1, median 13
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CHI2026 week 4
12v DET2026 week 3
17v GB2026 week 2
7v TEN2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 17
More players (3)
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 70+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 40.4, median 35
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

59v CHI2026 week 4
14v DET2026 week 3
7v GB2026 week 2
40v TEN2026 week 1
26v MIA2025 week 4
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 59+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLERushing yards

DataPitch 15% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 58.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 32.9, median 27
The line
58.5

His last 5, rushing yards

53v PIT2026 week 4
70v CAR2026 week 3
21v TB2026 week 2
33v JAX2026 week 1
22v BUF2025 week 16
Deshaun Watson QB · CLE 27+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Deshaun WatsonQB · CLERushing yards

DataPitch 13% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 26.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.6, median 5
The line
26.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v PIT2026 week 4
45v CAR2026 week 3
22v TB2026 week 2
38v JAX2026 week 1
0v CIN2024 week 7
Passing yards1
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 207+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 206.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 171, median 166
The line
206.5

His last 5, passing yards

98v CHI2026 week 4
279v DET2026 week 3
218v GB2026 week 2
215v TEN2026 week 1
152v NYG2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 5 NFL player props, every gameNew York Jets season simulation and futures pricesCleveland Browns season simulation and futures pricesWeek 4 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 5 games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys player propsPhiladelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars player propsChicago Bears at Green Bay Packers player propsCincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins player propsHouston Texans at Tennessee Titans player propsIndianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming