DATAPITCH
← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Week 4 · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Market line CLE +2.5 · total 38.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 24 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and all of them are Cleveland Browns players.

Strongest of themQuinshon JudkinsRB · CLE13+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 30 Sept, 14:12 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

24 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards29
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 13+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 72% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 12.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.3, median 22
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v CAR2026 week 3
27v TB2026 week 2
17v JAX2026 week 1
29v BUF2025 week 16
-4v CHI2025 week 15
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 41+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 40.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 61.3, median 56
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v CAR2026 week 3
54v TB2026 week 2
21v JAX2026 week 1
30v PIT2025 week 17
34v BUF2025 week 16
More players (7)
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 14+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jerry JeudyWR · CLEReceiving yards

DataPitch 94% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +40pp

Under 13.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 60.1, median 55
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v TB2026 week 2
26v JAX2026 week 1
17v CIN2025 week 18
54v PIT2025 week 17
12v BUF2025 week 16
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 42+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 41.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 50.7, median 45
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v CIN2026 week 3
27v NE2026 week 2
40v ATL2026 week 1
42v HOU2025 week 19
42v DET2025 week 16
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 17+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 16.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.6, median 13
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

67v CIN2026 week 3
7v NE2026 week 2
18v ATL2026 week 1
15v CLE2025 week 17
36v DET2025 week 16
Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT 33+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Michael Pittman Jr.WR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 32.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.4, median 25
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v CIN2026 week 3
58v ATL2026 week 1
11v HOU2025 week 18
16v JAX2025 week 17
32v SF2025 week 16
Roman Wilson WR · PIT 23+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Roman WilsonWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 22.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.7, median 14
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

60v CIN2026 week 3
28v NE2026 week 2
26v ATL2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 13
0v CHI2025 week 12
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 29+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 28.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.5, median 16
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v CIN2026 week 3
32v NE2026 week 2
46v ATL2026 week 1
18v HOU2025 week 19
51v BAL2025 week 18
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 23+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 22.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.4, median 7
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v CIN2026 week 3
34v NE2026 week 2
27v ATL2026 week 1
4v HOU2025 week 19
33v BAL2025 week 18
Receptions29
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 3+ receptions+140consensus market price

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 2.5: -185consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CAR2026 week 3
5v TB2026 week 2
2v JAX2026 week 1
5v BUF2025 week 16
3v CHI2025 week 15
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 5+ receptions-112consensus market price

Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 4.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.1, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v CAR2026 week 3
5v TB2026 week 2
2v JAX2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 17
4v BUF2025 week 16
More players (7)
Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2+ receptions+118consensus market price

Jerry JeudyWR · CLEReceptions

DataPitch 92% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +46pp

Under 1.5: -153consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v TB2026 week 2
2v JAX2026 week 1
2v CIN2025 week 18
5v PIT2025 week 17
3v BUF2025 week 16
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 4+ receptions-125consensus market price

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceptions

DataPitch 45% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 3.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 3
4v NE2026 week 2
4v ATL2026 week 1
2v HOU2025 week 19
4v DET2025 week 16
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 2+ receptions-185consensus market price

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 65%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 1.5: +140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 3
1v NE2026 week 2
2v ATL2026 week 1
2v CLE2025 week 17
3v DET2025 week 16
Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT 4+ receptions+105consensus market price

Michael Pittman Jr.WR · PITReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 3.5: -137consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CIN2026 week 3
3v ATL2026 week 1
2v HOU2025 week 18
2v JAX2025 week 17
4v SF2025 week 16
Roman Wilson WR · PIT 3+ receptions+105consensus market price

Roman WilsonWR · PITReceptions

DataPitch 19% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 2.5: -134consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 3
5v NE2026 week 2
3v ATL2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 13
0v CHI2025 week 12
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 17% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 3.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CIN2026 week 3
4v NE2026 week 2
5v ATL2026 week 1
1v HOU2025 week 19
3v BAL2025 week 18
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 4+ receptions+115consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceptions

DataPitch 9% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 3.5: -146consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 3
2v NE2026 week 2
5v ATL2026 week 1
1v HOU2025 week 19
5v BAL2025 week 18
Rushing yards5
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 68+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 67.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 70.1, median 64
The line
67.5

His last 5, rushing yards

127v CIN2026 week 3
43v NE2026 week 2
46v ATL2026 week 1
43v HOU2025 week 19
66v BAL2025 week 18
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 2+ rushing yards-107consensus market price

Aaron RodgersQB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 1.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.1, median 0
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v CIN2026 week 3
5v NE2026 week 2
-3v ATL2026 week 1
0v HOU2025 week 19
20v BAL2025 week 18
More players (3)
Travis Homer RB · PIT 40+ rushing yards+434consensus market price

Travis HomerRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 4% · Market 19%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 39.5: -5158consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.4, median 2
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CIN2026 week 3
16v NE2026 week 2
0v DET2025 week 18
0v SF2025 week 17
0v GB2025 week 14
Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 56+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLERushing yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 55.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.6, median 36
The line
55.5

His last 5, rushing yards

70v CAR2026 week 3
21v TB2026 week 2
33v JAX2026 week 1
22v BUF2025 week 16
21v CHI2025 week 15
Deshaun Watson QB · CLE 30+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Deshaun WatsonQB · CLERushing yards

DataPitch 14% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 29.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.4, median 7
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v CAR2026 week 3
22v TB2026 week 2
38v JAX2026 week 1
0v CIN2024 week 7
17v PHI2024 week 6
Passing yards1
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 213+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 212.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 186.9, median 181
The line
212.5

His last 5, passing yards

273v CIN2026 week 3
144v NE2026 week 2
206v ATL2026 week 1
110v HOU2025 week 19
290v BAL2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 4 NFL player props, every gameCleveland Browns season simulation and futures pricesPittsburgh Steelers season simulation and futures pricesWeek 3 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 4 games

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders player propsArizona Cardinals at New York Giants player propsDallas Cowboys at Houston Texans player propsGreen Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers player propsJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals player propsLos Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, free to use and priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming