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Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYG -2.5 · total 39.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 29 rows we price on this game clear our bar tonight, and 2 of them are New York Giants players.

Strongest of themTony PollardRB · TEN46+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Thu 24 Sept, 09:34 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

29 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards11
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 15+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 14.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.1, median 29
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v PHI2026 week 2
13v HOU2025 week 11
18v LV2025 week 6
131v ARI2025 week 5
30v HOU2025 week 4
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 15+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 14.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.9, median 26
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v PHI2026 week 2
11v NYJ2026 week 1
50v JAX2025 week 18
37v NO2025 week 17
58v KC2025 week 16
More players (9)
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 17.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.2, median 19
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v LA2026 week 2
27v DAL2026 week 1
20v NO2025 week 18
35v LA2025 week 17
24v ARI2025 week 16
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 12+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 11.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.1, median 9
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v LA2026 week 2
0v DAL2026 week 1
18v PHI2025 week 8
34v DEN2025 week 7
12v PHI2025 week 6
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 32+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 31.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.1, median 27
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v PHI2026 week 2
38v NYJ2026 week 1
113v LV2025 week 17
19v MIN2025 week 16
54v WAS2025 week 15
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 24+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 23.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.3, median 17
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v PHI2026 week 2
28v NYJ2026 week 1
1v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
49v SF2025 week 15
DoubtfulMalik Nabers WR · NYG 57+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 3 vs. Tennessee

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 56.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.4, median 26
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v LA2026 week 2
69v DAL2026 week 1
20v LAC2025 week 4
13v KC2025 week 3
167v DAL2025 week 2
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 43+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 12% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 42.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.2, median 11
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v LA2026 week 2
78v DAL2026 week 1
32v PIT2025 week 18
27v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 9+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 73%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.6, median 20
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LA2026 week 2
9v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
72v WAS2025 week 15
29v NE2025 week 13
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 7+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 61%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.2, median 10
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v PHI2026 week 2
-1v NYJ2026 week 1
17v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 15+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-24 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.3, median 16
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
9v JAX2025 week 18
-1v NO2025 week 17
53v KC2025 week 16
Receptions111
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 2+ receptions+190consensus market price

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 35%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LA2026 week 2
1v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
3v WAS2025 week 15
3v NE2025 week 13
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 2+ receptions+110consensus market price

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 63% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 1.5: -148consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
3v JAX2025 week 18
4v NO2025 week 17
3v KC2025 week 16
More players (9)
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 2+ receptions+112consensus market price

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 61% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 1.5: -148consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
1v HOU2025 week 11
1v LV2025 week 6
5v ARI2025 week 5
2v HOU2025 week 4
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2+ receptions+122consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 49% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 1.5: -161consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
3v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3+ receptions+110consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
2v NYJ2026 week 1
7v JAX2025 week 18
1v NO2025 week 17
5v KC2025 week 16
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 2+ receptions+105consensus market price

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 1.5: -135consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 2
2v DAL2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
2v ARI2025 week 16
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 3+ receptions+154consensus market price

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -210consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LA2026 week 2
0v DAL2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 8
3v DEN2025 week 7
2v PHI2025 week 6
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 3+ receptions-131consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceptions

DataPitch 40% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
4v NYJ2026 week 1
1v NO2025 week 17
2v KC2025 week 16
4v SF2025 week 15
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 4+ receptions-105consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceptions

DataPitch 29% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 3.5: -122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2026 week 2
5v NYJ2026 week 1
11v LV2025 week 17
3v MIN2025 week 16
5v WAS2025 week 15
DoubtfulMalik Nabers WR · NYG 5+ receptions-115consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 3 vs. Tennessee

DataPitch 9% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 4.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LA2026 week 2
6v DAL2026 week 1
2v LAC2025 week 4
2v KC2025 week 3
9v DAL2025 week 2
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 4+ receptions-155consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 13% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -48pp

Under 3.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LA2026 week 2
8v DAL2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
3v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
Rushing yards15
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 46+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 83% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 45.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 89.3, median 83
The line
45.5

His last 5, rushing yards

64v PHI2026 week 2
35v NYJ2026 week 1
48v JAX2025 week 18
85v NO2025 week 17
102v KC2025 week 16
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 20+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 19.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.9, median 19
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

41v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
18v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
52v KC2025 week 16
More players (3)
Cam Ward QB · TEN 12+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Cam WardQB · TENRushing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 11.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.4, median 6
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v PHI2026 week 2
21v NYJ2026 week 1
11v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 6+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 5.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.3, median 0
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
13v DET2025 week 12
10v GB2025 week 11
-2v KC2024 week 15
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 58+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 57.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.9, median 27
The line
57.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v LA2026 week 2
81v DAL2026 week 1
12v PHI2025 week 8
60v DEN2025 week 7
98v PHI2025 week 6
Passing yards12
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 209+ passing yards-106consensus market price

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGPassing yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 208.5: -106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 253.7, median 247
The line
208.5

His last 5, passing yards

110v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
362v DET2025 week 12
194v GB2025 week 11
109v KC2024 week 15
Cam Ward QB · TEN 191+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Cam WardQB · TENPassing yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 190.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 190, median 184
The line
190.5

His last 5, passing yards

169v PHI2026 week 2
127v NYJ2026 week 1
52v JAX2025 week 18
228v NO2025 week 17
212v KC2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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