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Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

Week 3 · Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYG -2.5 · total 37.5

How our calls did

Final: Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12

Called before kickoff: 5. Won 3, lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 27 Sept, 17:00 UK.

Every market we price

31 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards111
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 7+ receiving yardsWon22 yds-115consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 22 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 68% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 6.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.8, median 12
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v PHI2026 week 2
-1v NYJ2026 week 1
17v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 15+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 77% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 14.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.7, median 35
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v PHI2026 week 2
13v HOU2025 week 11
18v LV2025 week 6
131v ARI2025 week 5
30v HOU2025 week 4
More players (9)
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 14+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 13.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.9, median 27
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v PHI2026 week 2
11v NYJ2026 week 1
50v JAX2025 week 18
37v NO2025 week 17
58v KC2025 week 16
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 18+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 17.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.6, median 21
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v LA2026 week 2
27v DAL2026 week 1
20v NO2025 week 18
35v LA2025 week 17
24v ARI2025 week 16
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 31+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 57 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 30.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34, median 28
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v PHI2026 week 2
38v NYJ2026 week 1
113v LV2025 week 17
19v MIN2025 week 16
54v WAS2025 week 15
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 22+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 21.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.9, median 17
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v PHI2026 week 2
28v NYJ2026 week 1
1v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
49v SF2025 week 15
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 53+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 26 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 52.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.1, median 38
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v LA2026 week 2
69v DAL2026 week 1
20v LAC2025 week 4
13v KC2025 week 3
167v DAL2025 week 2
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 41+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 40.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.6, median 18
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v LA2026 week 2
78v DAL2026 week 1
32v PIT2025 week 18
27v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
Daniel Bellinger TE · TEN 5+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel BellingerTE · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 90%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.3, median 31
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 2
7v NYJ2026 week 1
38v DAL2025 week 18
11v LV2025 week 17
35v WAS2025 week 15
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 8+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 81%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.6, median 22
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LA2026 week 2
9v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
72v WAS2025 week 15
29v NE2025 week 13
DoubtfulTyjae Spears RB · TEN 14+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at N.Y. Giants

DataPitch 58%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.8, median 17
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
9v JAX2025 week 18
-1v NO2025 week 17
53v KC2025 week 16
Receptions211
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2+ receptionsWon4 receptions+138consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 1.5: -178consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
3v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 2+ receptionsLost0 receptions+143consensus market price

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 1.5: -153consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LA2026 week 2
1v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
3v WAS2025 week 15
3v NE2025 week 13
More players (9)
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 2+ receptions+122consensus market price

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 70% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 1.5: -159consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
1v HOU2025 week 11
1v LV2025 week 6
5v ARI2025 week 5
2v HOU2025 week 4
Elic Ayomanor WR · TEN 2+ receptions+120consensus market price

Elic AyomanorWR · TENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 65% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 1.5: -157consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
3v JAX2025 week 18
4v NO2025 week 17
3v KC2025 week 16
DoubtfulTyjae Spears RB · TEN 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at N.Y. Giants

DataPitch 48% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 2.5: -161consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
2v NYJ2026 week 1
7v JAX2025 week 18
1v NO2025 week 17
5v KC2025 week 16
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 2+ receptions+104consensus market price

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 1.5: -133consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 2
2v DAL2026 week 1
3v NO2025 week 18
2v LA2025 week 17
2v ARI2025 week 16
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 3+ receptions-125consensus market price

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v PHI2026 week 2
4v NYJ2026 week 1
1v NO2025 week 17
2v KC2025 week 16
4v SF2025 week 15
Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 4+ receptions-108consensus market price

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2026 week 2
5v NYJ2026 week 1
11v LV2025 week 17
3v MIN2025 week 16
5v WAS2025 week 15
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5+ receptions-102consensus market price

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 4.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LA2026 week 2
6v DAL2026 week 1
2v LAC2025 week 4
2v KC2025 week 3
9v DAL2025 week 2
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 4+ receptions-154consensus market price

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -47pp

Under 3.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LA2026 week 2
8v DAL2026 week 1
2v PIT2025 week 18
3v GB2025 week 17
0v NE2025 week 16
Daniel Bellinger TE · TEN 2+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel BellingerTE · TENReceptions

How it ended: Ungradeable, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 71%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 2
1v NYJ2026 week 1
2v DAL2025 week 18
2v LV2025 week 17
3v WAS2025 week 15
Rushing yards17
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 60+ rushing yardsWon74 yds-113consensus market price

Tony PollardRB · TENRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 74 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 89% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +36pp

Under 59.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 118.2, median 112
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

64v PHI2026 week 2
35v NYJ2026 week 1
48v JAX2025 week 18
85v NO2025 week 17
102v KC2025 week 16
Najee Harris RB · NYG 21+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Najee HarrisRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 52 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 91% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +38pp

Under 20.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 65.5, median 60
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v LA2026 week 2
28v DEN2025 week 3
28v LV2025 week 2
5v KC2025 week 1
17v BAL2024 week 19
More players (5)
Devin Singletary RB · NYG 13+ rushing yards-109consensus market price

Devin SingletaryRB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 89% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +37pp

Under 12.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 46.9, median 41
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v LA2026 week 2
16v DAL2026 week 1
26v DAL2025 week 18
45v LV2025 week 17
47v MIN2025 week 16
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 6+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 5.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.4, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
13v DET2025 week 12
10v GB2025 week 11
-2v KC2024 week 15
Cam Ward QB · TEN 14+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Cam WardQB · TENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 13.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.8, median 10
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v PHI2026 week 2
21v NYJ2026 week 1
11v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 30+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · NYGRushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 3 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 90%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 77.3, median 72
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v LA2026 week 2
14v DAL2026 week 1
103v DAL2025 week 18
62v LV2025 week 17
71v MIN2025 week 16
DoubtfulTyjae Spears RB · TEN 19+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-27 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENRushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 3 at N.Y. Giants

DataPitch 51%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.8, median 19
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

41v PHI2026 week 2
12v NYJ2026 week 1
18v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
52v KC2025 week 16
Passing yards12
Jameis Winston QB · NYG 200+ passing yardsLost118 yds-115consensus market price

Jameis WinstonQB · NYGPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 118 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 73% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 199.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 253, median 247
The line
199.5

His last 5, passing yards

110v LA2026 week 2
0v WAS2025 week 15
362v DET2025 week 12
194v GB2025 week 11
109v KC2024 week 15
Cam Ward QB · TEN 179+ passing yards-104consensus market price

Cam WardQB · TENPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 181 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 178.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 189.4, median 184
The line
178.5

His last 5, passing yards

169v PHI2026 week 2
127v NYJ2026 week 1
52v JAX2025 week 18
228v NO2025 week 17
212v KC2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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