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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · Market line SF -13.5 · total 44.5

How our calls did

Final: Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35

Called before kickoff: 4. Won 3, lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 20 Sept, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards19
George Kittle TE · SF 41+ receiving yardsWon80 yds-113consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 80 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 40.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.8, median 52
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v LA2026 week 1
6v PHI2025 week 19
29v SEA2025 week 18
115v IND2025 week 16
88v TEN2025 week 15
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 23+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 22.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.2, median 26
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v LV2026 week 1
31v NE2025 week 18
58v TB2025 week 17
46v CIN2025 week 16
46v PIT2025 week 15
More players (7)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 40+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 43 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 39.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.1, median 37
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v LA2026 week 1
39v SEA2025 week 20
66v PHI2025 week 19
34v SEA2025 week 18
41v CHI2025 week 17
Demarcus Robinson WR · SF 27+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Demarcus RobinsonWR · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 34 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 26.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27, median 21
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v LA2026 week 1
1v SEA2025 week 20
111v PHI2025 week 19
24v SEA2025 week 18
30v CHI2025 week 17
De'Von Achane RB · MIA 28+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

De'Von AchaneRB · MIAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 27.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.1, median 19
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

30v LV2026 week 1
29v TB2025 week 17
9v CIN2025 week 16
67v PIT2025 week 15
13v NYJ2025 week 14
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 36+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 31 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 35.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29, median 23
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v LA2026 week 1
20v PHI2025 week 18
68v DAL2025 week 17
35v PHI2025 week 16
43v NYG2025 week 15
Mike Evans WR · SF 50+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 54 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.8, median 28
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v LA2026 week 1
34v CAR2025 week 18
31v MIA2025 week 17
31v CAR2025 week 16
132v ATL2025 week 15
Malik Washington WR · MIA 34+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 43 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 33.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.5, median 17
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v LV2026 week 1
6v NE2025 week 18
4v TB2025 week 17
23v CIN2025 week 16
10v PIT2025 week 15
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 8+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-20 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 27 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 66%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.4, median 14
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v SEA2025 week 20
49v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
14v CHI2025 week 17
7v TEN2025 week 15
Receptions29
George Kittle TE · SF 4+ receptionsWon4 receptions-125consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 3.5: -103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.1, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 19
5v SEA2025 week 18
7v IND2025 week 16
8v TEN2025 week 15
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 3+ receptionsLost2 receptions+115consensus market price

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: -151consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LV2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 18
5v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 15
More players (7)
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 2+ receptions+185consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 35%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Under 1.5: -250consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v SEA2025 week 20
4v PHI2025 week 19
1v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
1v TEN2025 week 15
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions-132consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 4.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LA2026 week 1
5v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
6v SEA2025 week 18
4v CHI2025 week 17
Demarcus Robinson WR · SF 2+ receptions-162consensus market price

Demarcus RobinsonWR · SFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: +125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 1
1v SEA2025 week 20
6v PHI2025 week 19
3v SEA2025 week 18
2v CHI2025 week 17
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 4+ receptions+115consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 3.5: -146consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LA2026 week 1
2v PHI2025 week 18
2v DAL2025 week 17
3v PHI2025 week 16
3v NYG2025 week 15
Malik Washington WR · MIA 4+ receptions-103consensus market price

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 18
1v TB2025 week 17
1v CIN2025 week 16
1v PIT2025 week 15
De'Von Achane RB · MIA 5+ receptions+123consensus market price

De'Von AchaneRB · MIAReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 4.5: -162consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LV2026 week 1
3v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
6v PIT2025 week 15
1v NYJ2025 week 14
Mike Evans WR · SF 4+ receptions-135consensus market price

Mike EvansWR · SFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 3.5: +106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LA2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 18
3v MIA2025 week 17
5v CAR2025 week 16
6v ATL2025 week 15
Rushing yards16
De'Von Achane RB · MIA 59+ rushing yardsWon74 yds-113consensus market price

De'Von AchaneRB · MIARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 74 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 70% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 58.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 84.9, median 79
The line
58.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v LV2026 week 1
83v TB2025 week 17
81v CIN2025 week 16
60v PIT2025 week 15
92v NYJ2025 week 14
Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF 1+ rushing yards+425consensus market price

Kyle JuszczykRB · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 7% · Market 19%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 0.5: -667consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.8, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-3v SEA2025 week 20
0v PHI2025 week 19
0v SEA2025 week 18
0v CHI2025 week 17
0v TEN2025 week 15
More players (4)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 61+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 60.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 55.8, median 50
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v LA2026 week 1
35v SEA2025 week 20
48v PHI2025 week 19
23v SEA2025 week 18
140v CHI2025 week 17
Brock Purdy QB · SF 14+ rushing yards-117consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 30 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 13.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14, median 7
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v LA2026 week 1
37v SEA2025 week 20
24v PHI2025 week 19
21v SEA2025 week 18
28v CHI2025 week 17
Malik Willis QB · MIA 39+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Malik WillisQB · MIARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 38.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.1, median 14
The line
38.5

His last 5, rushing yards

39v LV2026 week 1
60v BAL2025 week 17
44v CHI2025 week 16
3v MIN2025 week 12
16v NYG2025 week 11
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 6+ rushing yards-125consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 5.5: -101consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.8, median 0
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

12v LA2026 week 1
1v PHI2025 week 18
25v DAL2025 week 17
0v PHI2025 week 16
0v NYG2025 week 15
Passing yards1
Brock Purdy QB · SF 239+ passing yards-111consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 287 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 238.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 216, median 210
The line
238.5

His last 5, passing yards

205v LA2026 week 1
124v SEA2025 week 20
257v PHI2025 week 19
120v SEA2025 week 18
296v CHI2025 week 17

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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