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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · Market line SF -13.5 · total 45.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 12 rows we price on this game clears our bar tonight.

Strongest of themDevon AchaneRB · MIA52+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Prices taken Tue 15 Sept, 14:25 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

12 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards4
Malik Washington WR · MIA 31+ receiving yards-102consensus market price

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 15% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 30.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.2, median 11
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v NE2025 week 18
4v TB2025 week 17
23v CIN2025 week 16
10v PIT2025 week 15
10v NYJ2025 week 14
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 25+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.6, median 16
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v NE2025 week 18
58v TB2025 week 17
46v CIN2025 week 16
46v PIT2025 week 15
41v NYJ2025 week 14
More players (2)
Devon Achane RB · MIA 29+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Devon AchaneRB · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 19%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.1, median 12
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v TB2025 week 17
9v CIN2025 week 16
67v PIT2025 week 15
13v NYJ2025 week 14
0v NO2025 week 13
Mike Evans WR · SF 51+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Mike EvansWR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 15%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.5, median 20
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v CAR2025 week 18
31v MIA2025 week 17
31v CAR2025 week 16
132v ATL2025 week 15
0v DET2025 week 7
Receptions3
Malik Washington WR · MIA 4+ receptions+118consensus market price

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 14% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 18
1v TB2025 week 17
1v CIN2025 week 16
1v PIT2025 week 15
3v NYJ2025 week 14
Devon Achane RB · MIA 5+ receptions+118consensus market price

Devon AchaneRB · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 10% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 4.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
6v PIT2025 week 15
1v NYJ2025 week 14
0v NO2025 week 13
More players (1)
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 3+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 34%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NE2025 week 18
5v TB2025 week 17
3v CIN2025 week 16
2v PIT2025 week 15
3v NYJ2025 week 14
Rushing yards14
Devon Achane RB · MIA 52+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Devon AchaneRB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 79% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 51.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 87.9, median 82
The line
51.5

His last 5, rushing yards

83v TB2025 week 17
81v CIN2025 week 16
60v PIT2025 week 15
92v NYJ2025 week 14
134v NO2025 week 13
Brock Purdy QB · SF 20+ rushing yards+126consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 19.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.5, median 11
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

37v SEA2025 week 20
24v PHI2025 week 19
21v SEA2025 week 18
28v CHI2025 week 17
11v IND2025 week 16
More players (2)
Malik Willis QB · MIA 40+ rushing yards-120consensus market price

Malik WillisQB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 39.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.9, median 15
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

60v BAL2025 week 17
44v CHI2025 week 16
3v MIN2025 week 12
16v NYG2025 week 11
3v CHI2024 week 18
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 73+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.6, median 66
The line
72.5

His last 5, rushing yards

35v SEA2025 week 20
48v PHI2025 week 19
23v SEA2025 week 18
140v CHI2025 week 17
117v IND2025 week 16
Passing yards1
Brock Purdy QB · SF 238+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-09-15 capture; an older price is not shown

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 37%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 220.2, median 214
The line
237.5

His last 5, passing yards

124v SEA2025 week 20
257v PHI2025 week 19
120v SEA2025 week 18
296v CHI2025 week 17
295v IND2025 week 16

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is the gap against our own publication bar: green clears it, red is negative, white neutral. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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