← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Week 2 · Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYJ +3.5 · total 44.5

How our calls did

Final: Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17

Nothing on this game was called before kickoff, so it has no record.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 20 Sept, 13:30 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 12+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 34 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 11.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.7, median 12
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v TEN2026 week 1
24v BUF2025 week 18
30v NE2025 week 17
25v NO2025 week 16
53v JAX2025 week 15
Jonnu Smith TE · GB 13+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jonnu SmithTE · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.6, median 10
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v MIN2026 week 1
-1v HOU2025 week 19
2v BAL2025 week 18
18v CLE2025 week 17
0v DET2025 week 16
More players (8)
Jayden Reed WR · GB 38+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jayden ReedWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 37.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.6, median 25
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v MIN2026 week 1
43v CHI2025 week 19
41v BAL2025 week 17
35v CHI2025 week 16
55v DEN2025 week 15
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 17.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.5, median 10
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

-2v TEN2026 week 1
51v MIA2025 week 14
21v ATL2025 week 13
21v BAL2025 week 12
30v NE2025 week 11
Christian Watson WR · GB 60+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 41 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 59.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.6, median 37
The line
59.5

His last 5, receiving yards

147v MIN2026 week 1
36v CHI2025 week 19
113v BAL2025 week 17
17v CHI2025 week 16
29v DEN2025 week 15
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 45+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 44.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.4, median 25
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

65v MIN2026 week 1
20v CAR2025 week 9
143v PIT2025 week 8
58v ARI2025 week 7
43v CIN2025 week 6
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 35+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 63 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 34.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.4, median 18
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

60v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
22v NE2025 week 17
43v NO2025 week 16
58v JAX2025 week 15
Matthew Golden WR · GB 50+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 49.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28, median 20
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

95v MIN2026 week 1
84v CHI2025 week 19
8v MIN2025 week 18
12v BAL2025 week 17
0v CHI2025 week 16
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 19+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 63 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 18.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 8.7, median 3
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v TEN2026 week 1
18v NE2025 week 17
9v NO2025 week 16
14v JAX2025 week 15
0v MIA2025 week 14
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 69+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 57 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 68.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34, median 28
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

79v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
13v DEN2025 week 6
71v DAL2025 week 5
82v MIA2025 week 4
Receptions10
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 2+ receptions+100consensus market price

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 1.5: -127consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TEN2026 week 1
5v BUF2025 week 18
4v NE2025 week 17
4v NO2025 week 16
6v JAX2025 week 15
Jonnu Smith TE · GB 2+ receptions+108consensus market price

Jonnu SmithTE · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 1.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIN2026 week 1
2v HOU2025 week 19
1v BAL2025 week 18
5v CLE2025 week 17
0v DET2025 week 16
More players (8)
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 3+ receptions-109consensus market price

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 2.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 1
5v MIA2025 week 14
2v ATL2025 week 13
3v BAL2025 week 12
4v NE2025 week 11
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3+ receptions-127consensus market price

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 2.5: -103consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TEN2026 week 1
0v BUF2025 week 18
3v NE2025 week 17
3v NO2025 week 16
6v JAX2025 week 15
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 4+ receptions-130consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 1
2v CAR2025 week 9
7v PIT2025 week 8
5v ARI2025 week 7
2v CIN2025 week 6
Jayden Reed WR · GB 4+ receptions+100consensus market price

Jayden ReedWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 3.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 1
4v CHI2025 week 19
4v BAL2025 week 17
3v CHI2025 week 16
5v DEN2025 week 15
Christian Watson WR · GB 4+ receptions-162consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 3.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v MIN2026 week 1
3v CHI2025 week 19
5v BAL2025 week 17
2v CHI2025 week 16
3v DEN2025 week 15
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 3+ receptions-130consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 2.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 17
2v NO2025 week 16
2v JAX2025 week 15
0v MIA2025 week 14
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 6+ receptions-130consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 10% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -47pp

Under 5.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v TEN2026 week 1
0v CLE2025 week 10
3v DEN2025 week 6
6v DAL2025 week 5
6v MIA2025 week 4
Matthew Golden WR · GB 4+ receptions-153consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 12% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -49pp

Under 3.5: +122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v MIN2026 week 1
4v CHI2025 week 19
1v MIN2025 week 18
1v BAL2025 week 17
0v CHI2025 week 16
Rushing yards6
Jordan Love QB · GB 8+ rushing yards-116consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 7.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.7, median 7
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v MIN2026 week 1
11v CHI2025 week 19
7v CHI2025 week 16
29v DEN2025 week 15
-1v CHI2025 week 14
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 66+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 65.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 64, median 58
The line
65.5

His last 5, rushing yards

102v TEN2026 week 1
111v NE2025 week 17
54v NO2025 week 16
23v JAX2025 week 15
43v MIA2025 week 14
More players (4)
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 8+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 7.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.5, median 4
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v TEN2026 week 1
1v NYG2025 week 17
0v HOU2025 week 16
4v DEN2025 week 14
-6v LAC2025 week 13
MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 51+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 50.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 37.1, median 30
The line
50.5

His last 2, rushing yards

37v MIN2026 week 1
15v IND2024 week 2
DoubtfulChris Brooks RB · GB 25+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Chris BrooksRB · GBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his rush attempts line fell 9.5 to 6.5 between the open and the close, 32% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17.7, median 10
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

29v MIN2026 week 1
16v CHI2025 week 19
61v MIN2025 week 18
0v BAL2025 week 17
4v CHI2025 week 16
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 25+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 24.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.9, median 11
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

40v TEN2026 week 1
26v MIA2025 week 4
30v TB2025 week 3
11v BUF2025 week 2
9v PIT2025 week 1
Passing yards2
Jordan Love QB · GB 255+ passing yards+101consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 145 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 254.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 243.2, median 237
The line
254.5

His last 5, passing yards

353v MIN2026 week 1
322v CHI2025 week 19
77v CHI2025 week 16
247v DEN2025 week 15
220v CHI2025 week 14
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 208+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 247 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 207.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 173.8, median 168
The line
207.5

His last 5, passing yards

215v TEN2026 week 1
152v NYG2025 week 17
170v HOU2025 week 16
97v DEN2025 week 14
125v LAC2025 week 13

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 2 NFL player props, every gameNew York Jets season simulation and futures pricesGreen Bay Packers season simulation and futures pricesWeek 1 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming

Free on Telegram

Live player alerts, about 20 seconds behind the pitch

Shots, fouls and bookings as they happen, plus the daily match cards. Join the channel, it is free.