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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Week 1 · Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TEN -1.5 · total 39.5

How our calls did

Final: New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10

Called before kickoff: 2. Lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 13 Sept, 13:34 UK.

Every market we price

28 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards10
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 28+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 27.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.3, median 22.5
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v HOU2025 week 11
18v LV2025 week 6
131v ARI2025 week 5
30v HOU2025 week 4
27v IND2025 week 3
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 16+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 15.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 13
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v JAX2025 week 18
-1v NO2025 week 17
53v KC2025 week 16
2v SF2025 week 15
28v CLE2025 week 14
More players (8)
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 10+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Tony PollardRB · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, -1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 9.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.5, median 6
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
8v SF2025 week 15
0v CLE2025 week 14
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 21+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 28 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 20.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.9, median 14
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
49v SF2025 week 15
8v CLE2025 week 14
23v JAX2025 week 13
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 33+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 60 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 32.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.7, median 21
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2025 week 18
22v NE2025 week 17
43v NO2025 week 16
58v JAX2025 week 15
24v MIA2025 week 14
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 22+ receiving yards-108price shown when this board was published

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, -2 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 21.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.1, median 11
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v MIA2025 week 14
21v ATL2025 week 13
21v BAL2025 week 12
30v NE2025 week 11
4v CLE2025 week 10
Wan'dale Robinson WR · TEN 42+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Wan'dale RobinsonWR · TENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 38 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 41.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.1, median 21
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

113v LV2025 week 17
19v MIN2025 week 16
54v WAS2025 week 15
34v NE2025 week 13
156v DET2025 week 12
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 63+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 79 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 19% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 62.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.3, median 30
The line
62.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CLE2025 week 10
13v DEN2025 week 6
71v DAL2025 week 5
82v MIA2025 week 4
84v TB2025 week 3
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 21+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Breece HallRB · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 20.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.8, median 2
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v NE2025 week 17
9v NO2025 week 16
14v JAX2025 week 15
0v MIA2025 week 14
8v ATL2025 week 13
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 8+ receiving yardsno price held

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 63%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 13
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v BUF2025 week 18
30v NE2025 week 17
25v NO2025 week 16
53v JAX2025 week 15
24v MIA2025 week 14
Receptions110
Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ 2+ receptionsLost1 reception+149price shown when this board was published

Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 1.5: -183price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BUF2025 week 18
4v NE2025 week 17
4v NO2025 week 16
6v JAX2025 week 15
2v MIA2025 week 14
Calvin Ridley WR · TEN 3+ receptions+144price shown when this board was published

Calvin RidleyWR · TENReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 2.5: -188price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2025 week 11
1v LV2025 week 6
5v ARI2025 week 5
2v HOU2025 week 4
1v IND2025 week 3
More players (8)
Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 3+ receptions+106price shown when this board was published

Gunnar HelmTE · TENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -141price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NO2025 week 17
2v KC2025 week 16
4v SF2025 week 15
1v CLE2025 week 14
6v JAX2025 week 13
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3+ receptions-115price shown when this board was published

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 2.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

7v JAX2025 week 18
1v NO2025 week 17
5v KC2025 week 16
2v SF2025 week 15
2v CLE2025 week 14
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Tony PollardRB · TENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 1.5: -105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
0v KC2025 week 16
1v SF2025 week 15
0v CLE2025 week 14
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3+ receptions-124price shown when this board was published

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: -102price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2025 week 18
3v NE2025 week 17
3v NO2025 week 16
6v JAX2025 week 15
1v MIA2025 week 14
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 3+ receptions+104price shown when this board was published

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 2.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v MIA2025 week 14
2v ATL2025 week 13
3v BAL2025 week 12
4v NE2025 week 11
1v CLE2025 week 10
Wan'dale Robinson WR · TEN 5+ receptions-102price shown when this board was published

Wan'dale RobinsonWR · TENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 4.5: -125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

11v LV2025 week 17
3v MIN2025 week 16
5v WAS2025 week 15
7v NE2025 week 13
9v DET2025 week 12
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 6+ receptions-114price shown when this board was published

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 5.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CLE2025 week 10
3v DEN2025 week 6
6v DAL2025 week 5
6v MIA2025 week 4
10v TB2025 week 3
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 3+ receptions-137price shown when this board was published

Breece HallRB · NYJReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 2.5: +106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NE2025 week 17
2v NO2025 week 16
2v JAX2025 week 15
0v MIA2025 week 14
2v ATL2025 week 13
Rushing yards16
Tony Pollard RB · TEN 49+ rushing yardsLost35 yds-114price shown when this board was published

Tony PollardRB · TENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 35 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 79% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 48.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 84.6, median 79
The line
48.5

His last 5, rushing yards

48v JAX2025 week 18
85v NO2025 week 17
102v KC2025 week 16
104v SF2025 week 15
161v CLE2025 week 14
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 64+ rushing yards-117price shown when this board was published

Breece HallRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 102 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 63.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 63.8, median 58
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

111v NE2025 week 17
54v NO2025 week 16
23v JAX2025 week 15
43v MIA2025 week 14
68v ATL2025 week 13
More players (4)
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 7+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 6.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.4, median 3
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v NYG2025 week 17
0v HOU2025 week 16
4v DEN2025 week 14
-6v LAC2025 week 13
8v CLE2025 week 12
Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 25+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Tyjae SpearsRB · TENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 12 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 24.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25, median 18
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

18v JAX2025 week 18
2v NO2025 week 17
52v KC2025 week 16
34v SF2025 week 15
19v CLE2025 week 14
Cameron Ward QB · TEN 10+ rushing yards-115price shown when this board was published

Cameron WardQB · TENRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 21 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 9.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.9, median 6
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v JAX2025 week 18
10v NO2025 week 17
9v KC2025 week 16
2v SF2025 week 15
4v CLE2025 week 14
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 20+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 40 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 19.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 17, median 11
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

26v MIA2025 week 4
30v TB2025 week 3
11v BUF2025 week 2
9v PIT2025 week 1
15v MIA2024 week 18
Passing yards2
Cameron Ward QB · TEN 202+ passing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Cameron WardQB · TENPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 140 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 201.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 193.6, median 188
The line
201.5

His last 5, passing yards

52v JAX2025 week 18
228v NO2025 week 17
212v KC2025 week 16
170v SF2025 week 15
108v CLE2025 week 14
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 211+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 215 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 210.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 196.8, median 191
The line
210.5

His last 5, passing yards

152v NYG2025 week 17
170v HOU2025 week 16
97v DEN2025 week 14
125v LAC2025 week 13
208v CLE2025 week 12

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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