Sim it yourself: locking a result and re-running the NFL season

What a scenario is

Start from what the board already holds: more than twenty thousand full simulated seasons, each one a complete league year with every game played and every race settled. A price on the board is a count over that set.

A scenario is a filter on the same set. Ask for a club to beat a particular opponent and the tool keeps only the seasons in which that actually happened, then counts again over what is left. That is the whole mechanism, and it is why a scenario can never produce a price the simulation did not already contain. It is also why an ordinary request is instant and an extreme one is not free: force a combination unusual enough that very few simulated seasons match it and the page says so plainly rather than showing a number resting on almost nothing.

Force a result on a team page

Every team page opens with that club's prices and then hands the season over, under a heading the site has always called "Sim it yourself". Two controls sit there: the win total slider, and Force a result.

Force a result lists that club's own upcoming games with a Win and a Loss button on each, and it ranks them by how much each game actually swings that club's playoff price, printed as a leverage figure in percentage points on the chip. That ranking is the useful part: it says where the club's season is genuinely decided, which is rarely the game a schedule looks at first. You may pick up to three.

There is one more control behind Advanced: force a playoff path. Instead of a game it asks for a stage of the postseason the club reaches, from making the playoffs through winning the division, reaching the Super Bowl, winning it, or taking the number one seed. It combines with the win total and the forced games above it, and picking none is a perfectly ordinary answer.

What re-prices, and why every market moves together

Everything above the controls reprices, off the same simulated seasons. That is the division price, the conference price, the Super Bowl price, the playoff price, the club's expected wins, its season series rows and the player markets that move with the team.

They move together because they were never separate. Each simulated season plays out the whole league at once, so a division race, a conference seed and a Super Bowl trophy all come from the same imagined season rather than three guesses stapled together. Filter the set and every question asked of it is answered by the same surviving seasons, which is why forcing one result can move a price you were not looking at. A tool that repriced only the market you touched would be telling you something false about the other five.

One player market on a team page behaves differently and says so on its face: where the number shown is the market's own price rather than ours, the page states that we only move it with the scenario. Our own projections are labelled as ours in the same place.

Sharing a scenario by URL

The page URL remembers your scenario. Every control you touch is written into it, so the address bar is the state of the season you have built, and there is a Share this scenario button that hands you the link.

Sending that link hands someone else exactly what you built rather than just the team. He opens the same club page with the same win total, the same forced games and the same playoff path already applied, and every price on it already read off the same surviving seasons. There is no account behind it and nothing is saved on our side: the scenario lives in the link.

Reset

Reset undoes everything in one tap: the slider, every forced game and the playoff path together, back to the club's own prices as the board published them. It is one button and it is never more than one tap from whatever you have built, which is what makes the rest of it safe to play with.

That is the point of the whole tool. It is not there to tell you what will happen; it is there to let you ask what a season looks like if the thing you already believe turns out to be right, and to hand the answer back in the same prices the board shows everyone else. No accounts, no login, and no claim of profit.