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The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
M. Lukjancukas runs lenient on cards, and nothing on this match clears our bar tonight, so we are backing none of it.
60 lines on 3 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
A. VallçiRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 32%
no price
J. Gorenc StankovičRCM · #4To be booked
DataPitch 30%
no price
J. HeilRB · #28To be booked
DataPitch 30%
no price
Jacob Peter HödlRM · #43To be booked
DataPitch 26%
no price
V. RongierCM · #21To be booked
DataPitch 23%
no price
A. ThomassonLCM · #28To be booked
DataPitch 20%
no price
M. CamaraRCM · #45To be booked
DataPitch 20%
no price
C. CresswellRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 19%
no price
L. BlasRW · #10To be booked
DataPitch 19%
no price
O. KiteishviliLS · #10To be booked
DataPitch 18%
no price
A. RouaultLCB · #24To be booked
DataPitch 16%
no price
Mousa Al TamariST · #11To be booked
DataPitch 16%
no price
E. SogloLM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
P. FrankowskiRB · #95To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
P. KollerLCB · #30To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
E. LepaulLW · #9To be booked
DataPitch 12%
no price
Q. MerlinLB · #26To be booked
DataPitch 8%
no price
B. SambaGK · #30To be booked
DataPitch 5%
no price
D. KhudyakovGK · #53To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
A. VallçiRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 25%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. KollerLCB · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. KhudyakovGK · #53Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (194cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. RouaultLCB · #24Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
level in the air (186cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
B. BeganovicRS · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
wins headers against a smaller marker (183cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. Gorenc StankovičRCM · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
C. CresswellRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
level in the air (183cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
B. SambaGK · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (186cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
L. BlasRW · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. HeilRB · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
O. KiteishviliLS · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Mousa Al TamariST · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
E. LepaulLW · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. FrankowskiRB · #95Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Q. MerlinLB · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jacob Peter HödlRM · #43Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
M. CamaraRCM · #45Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
V. RongierCM · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. ThomassonLCM · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
V. RongierCM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 22%
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 4 logged matches
Mousa Al TamariST · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 7 logged matches
E. LepaulLW · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 4 logged matches
L. BlasRW · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 4 logged matches
Jacob Peter HödlRM · #43Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 7 logged matches
J. Gorenc StankovičRCM · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
M. CamaraRCM · #45Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 3 logged matches
Luca WeinhandlLCM · #39Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 6 logged matches
J. HeilRB · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
A. VallçiRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
E. SogloLM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
O. KiteishviliLS · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
B. BeganovicRS · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 6 logged matches
A. RouaultLCB · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 4 logged matches
C. CresswellRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 4 logged matches
P. FrankowskiRB · #95Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
B. SambaGK · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
A. ThomassonLCM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
Q. MerlinLB · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
P. KollerLCB · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
D. KhudyakovGK · #53Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
L. BalboLB · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 5 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think M. Lukjancukas will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
lenient, 38 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.92/match · Away 2.24/match
3/match in tight games · 1.75/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.
