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The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
H. Osmers runs average on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Jagiellonia's.
100 lines on 5 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Gelson MartinsLM · #10Shots
DataPitch 92% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jesús ImazLW · #11Shots
DataPitch 78% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bernardo VitalLCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. PirolaLCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. WojtuszekLB · #15Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. RetsosRCB · #45Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ChiquinhoCAM · #22Shots
DataPitch 67% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. HezzeRDM · #32Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. FortounisRM · #7Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dani GarcíaLDM · #14Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -61pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. SaliakasRB · #2Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -73pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. WojtuszekLB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bernardo VitalLCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. RetsosRCB · #45Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. PirolaLCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jesús ImazLW · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gelson MartinsLM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 53% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. HezzeRDM · #32Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dani GarcíaLDM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ChiquinhoCAM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 49% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. FortounisRM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. SaliakasRB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
D. DrachalLCM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 28% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
T. RomanczukCM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 32% · Market 30%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
P. RetsosRCB · #45To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
S. HezzeRDM · #32To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
M. SaliakasRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
L. PirolaLCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bernardo VitalLCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gelson MartinsLM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. FortounisRM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
ChiquinhoCAM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
B. PopovićGK · #31To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dimitris RallisRCM · #9To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Y. KobayashiRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
S. AbramowiczGK · #50To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jesús ImazLW · #11To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. WojtuszekLB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Dani GarcíaLDM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 37%
no price
S. OnyemaechiLB · #70To be booked
DataPitch 22%
no price
A. El KaabiST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 12%
no price
B. PopovićGK · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (194cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. RetsosRCB · #45Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
L. PirolaLCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Y. KobayashiRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. El KaabiST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (182cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. WojtuszekLB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (184cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
S. AbramowiczGK · #50Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Eryk KozlowskiRW · #85Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
level in the air (181cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. RomanczukCM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. FortounisRM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (183cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jesús ImazLW · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
M. SaliakasRB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
S. OnyemaechiLB · #70Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. DrachalLCM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (182cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. KlyngeST · #19Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dani GarcíaLDM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (180cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. SzmytRB · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (171cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Dimitris RallisRCM · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
level in the air (180cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ChiquinhoCAM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gelson MartinsLM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
L. PirolaLCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 2 logged matches
Jesús ImazLW · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 17%
2.1 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
K. FortounisRM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 16%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
S. OnyemaechiLB · #70Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 2 logged matches
Gelson MartinsLM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
Dimitris RallisRCM · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
1.1 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
ChiquinhoCAM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
D. DrachalLCM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
1.0 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
A. El KaabiST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
S. HezzeRDM · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
T. RomanczukCM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
0.6 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Dani GarcíaLDM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
K. SzmytRB · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
0.9 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
A. KlyngeST · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
0.4 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Eryk KozlowskiRW · #85Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
no minute log on him from range yet
Y. KobayashiRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
0.1 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
N. WojtuszekLB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
0.4 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Bernardo VitalLCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
0.2 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
M. SaliakasRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
P. RetsosRCB · #45Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
B. PopovićGK · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think H. Osmers will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 142 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.08/match · Away 2.41/match
4.79/match in tight games · 3.87/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.