v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
J. Alberola runs average on cards, and 2 of the 2 rows we would back are 1899 Hoffenheim's.
128 lines on 5 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
K. KostoulasRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 46% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. FountasRW · #11Shots
DataPitch 91% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. HložekRS · #10Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. KrizmanićLCB · #2Shots
DataPitch 18% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. AthanasiouLM · #3Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. PoungourasCB · #15Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Z. KarachaliosRCM · #6Shots
DataPitch 48% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. NussLW · #18Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Borja GonzálezRM · #17Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. DaghimLM · #14Shots
DataPitch 78% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. LemperleLS · #19Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. KabakRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 72% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
F. AsllaniRM · #11Shots
DataPitch 70% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. AvdullahuRCM · #7Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
W. BurgerLCM · #18Shots
DataPitch 51% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. HajdariLCB · #21Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -42pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
BernardoLB · #13Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -47pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
V. CoufalRB · #34Shots
DataPitch 14% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -51pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. KostoulasRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Borja GonzálezRM · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. AthanasiouLM · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. AvdullahuRCM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. PoungourasCB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. KrizmanićLCB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Z. KarachaliosRCM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. FountasRW · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 40% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
V. CoufalRB · #34Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. HajdariLCB · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. LemperleLS · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 59% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. DaghimLM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
BernardoLB · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
W. BurgerLCM · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. KabakRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. NussLW · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 39% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
F. AsllaniRM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 50% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. HložekRS · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 3.5 cards.
A. HajdariLCB · #21To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
O. KabakRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 33% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
W. BurgerLCM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
T. AndroutsosLCM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
BernardoLB · #13To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. FountasRW · #11To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
L. AvdullahuRCM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. HložekRS · #10To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
F. AsllaniRM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. LemperleLS · #19To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
V. CoufalRB · #34To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. ChristogeorgosGK · #31To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. DaghimLM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. AthanasiouLM · #3To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. KrizmanićLCB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Borja GonzálezRM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
O. BaumannGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Z. KarachaliosRCM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. PoungourasCB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. NussLW · #18To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. LeyaST · #99To be booked
DataPitch 9%
no price
A. HajdariLCB · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. HložekRS · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. LemperleLS · #19Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
level in the air (187cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
O. KabakRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
level in the air (187cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. PoungourasCB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
level in the air (187cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
BernardoLB · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
level in the air (186cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. KostoulasRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (185cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
W. BurgerLCM · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. ChristogeorgosGK · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
F. AsllaniRM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. LeyaST · #99Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
gives up height in the air (182cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
O. BaumannGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
level in the air (187cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. DaghimLM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (185cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
L. AvdullahuRCM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (185cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
V. CoufalRB · #34Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. FountasRW · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. NussLW · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (166cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. AndroutsosLCM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Z. KarachaliosRCM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Borja GonzálezRM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. LemperleLS · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 33%
shoots from range 1.1 times a game across 3 logged matches
A. HložekRS · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 28%
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 7 logged matches
F. AsllaniRM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 27%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
A. DaghimLM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 4 logged matches
L. AvdullahuRCM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 16%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 4 logged matches
T. FountasRW · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
2.6 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
T. NussLW · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
2.2 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
W. BurgerLCM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 4 logged matches
A. LeyaST · #99Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
1.5 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
A. HajdariLCB · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 4 logged matches
Borja GonzálezRM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
0.9 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
V. CoufalRB · #34Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
O. KabakRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
N. AthanasiouLM · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
0.6 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Z. KarachaliosRCM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
0.5 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
T. AndroutsosLCM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
0.3 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
O. BaumannGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
BernardoLB · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
K. KrizmanićLCB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
0.2 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
A. PoungourasCB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
0.2 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
K. KostoulasRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
0.5 shots per 90 overall; no minute log on him from range yet
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think J. Alberola will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 202 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.63/match · Away 1.92/match
3.87/match in tight games · 2.86/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.