v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
O. Derevinskyi runs lenient on cards, and 5 of the 7 rows we would back are Juventus's.
201 lines on 7 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
J. LucumíLCB · #26Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
T. StormRCB · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 73% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
F. GattiCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
A. CambiasoLM · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
N. WoltemadeST · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
D. NejašmićRCM · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
T. CheryRM · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
P. SarrRCM · #29Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
C. BischoffLM · #99Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
P. SandlerCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
N. GonzálezLCM · #31Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
D. GeigerRAM · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
N. LebretonLCM · #20Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
D. TadićST · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
C. BischoffLM · #99Fouls drawn
DataPitch 75% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
D. GeigerRAM · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
P. SarrRCM · #29Fouls drawn
DataPitch 55% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
J. LucumíLCB · #26Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
P. SandlerCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 46% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. CheryRM · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 52% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 45% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. GonzálezLCM · #31Fouls drawn
DataPitch 68% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
D. NejašmićRCM · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
N. LebretonLCM · #20Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
A. CambiasoLM · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 51% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
N. WoltemadeST · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 55% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
T. StormRCB · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 46% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
D. TadićST · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 55% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
F. GattiCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
T. StormRCB · #21Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. NejašmićRCM · #6Shots
DataPitch 38% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. GeigerRAM · #18Shots
DataPitch 23% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. CheryRM · #9Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. GonzálezLCM · #31Shots
DataPitch 82% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
F. GattiCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 51% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. CambiasoLM · #27Shots
DataPitch 51% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. SandlerCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 5% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. WoltemadeST · #27Shots
DataPitch 69% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. SarrRCM · #29Shots
DataPitch 64% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. LebretonLCM · #20Shots
DataPitch 40% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. LucumíLCB · #26Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Deveron FonvilleLCB · #24Shots
DataPitch 2% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. TadićST · #10Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. BischoffLM · #99Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -42pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2Shots
DataPitch 16% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -55pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. NejašmićRCM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. SandlerCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. GeigerRAM · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
F. GattiCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. LebretonLCM · #20Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. CambiasoLM · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 28% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. StormRCB · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. LucumíLCB · #26Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Deveron FonvilleLCB · #24Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. CheryRM · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. BischoffLM · #99Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. TadićST · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 39% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. GonzálezLCM · #31Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. SarrRCM · #29Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. WoltemadeST · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 39% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -44pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4 cards.
N. LebretonLCM · #20To be booked
DataPitch 38% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
F. GattiCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
P. SarrRCM · #29To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
D. GeigerRAM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 35% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićLAM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. LucumíLCB · #26To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. WoltemadeST · #27To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. CambiasoLM · #27To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Deveron FonvilleLCB · #24To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
D. TadićST · #10To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
E. ZhegrovaRAM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. StormRCB · #21To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. GonzálezLCM · #31To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. CheryRM · #9To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. SandlerCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. BischoffLM · #99To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
D. NejašmićRCM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
G. CrettazGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 5%
no price
K. GrabaraGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
N. WoltemadeST · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 43%
wins headers against a smaller marker (198cm over a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
F. GattiCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 22%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. GrabaraGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (195cm over a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. SandlerCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. LucumíLCB · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
level in the air (187cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. TadićST · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. SarrRCM · #29Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
gives up height in the air (185cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (184cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
G. CrettazGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (184cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. NejašmićRCM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. CambiasoLM · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (182cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
E. ZhegrovaRAM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. GonzálezLCM · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićLAM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 188cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. GeigerRAM · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. CheryRM · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. GonzálezLCM · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 25%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 12 logged matches
Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićLAM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 25%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 8 logged matches
T. CheryRM · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
shoots from range 1.6 times a game across 10 logged matches
T. KoopmeinersRM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
N. WoltemadeST · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
D. NejašmićRCM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 8 logged matches
E. ZhegrovaRAM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 3 logged matches
P. SarrRCM · #29Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 5 logged matches
N. LebretonLCM · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 10 logged matches
F. GattiCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 3 logged matches
A. CambiasoLM · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
Jamiro MonteiroLAM · #35Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 14 logged matches
C. BischoffLM · #99Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 10 logged matches
J. LucumíLCB · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 9 logged matches
K. GrabaraGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 3 matches we have logged
Z. ÇelikRCB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
Deveron FonvilleLCB · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
D. TadićST · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
P. SandlerCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 5 matches we have logged
D. GeigerRAM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 3 matches we have logged
G. CrettazGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
T. StormRCB · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 10 logged matches
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think O. Derevinskyi will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
lenient, 54 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.98/match · Away 2.26/match
2.42/match in tight games · 2.17/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.