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The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
M. Al-Hakim runs average on cards, and nothing on this match clears our bar tonight, so we are backing none of it.
74 lines on 5 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Bruno WilsonLCB · #43Shots
DataPitch 23% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Sandro LimaST · #91Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. Braut BrunesST · #14Shots
DataPitch 76% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. ŠevínskýRCB · #19Shots
DataPitch 44% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. AlcócerRM · #7Shots
DataPitch 59% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ZelenýLCB · #30Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -46pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. KadeřábekLB · #3Shots
DataPitch 16% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -48pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. ŠevínskýRCB · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 28% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ZelenýLCB · #30Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno WilsonLCB · #43Shots on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. KadeřábekLB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. AlcócerRM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Sandro LimaST · #91Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. Braut BrunesST · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -44pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4 cards.
M. RynešLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. AlcócerRM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. ZelenýLCB · #30To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. MacekRDM · #28To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. Braut BrunesST · #14To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Sandro LimaST · #91To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. IrvingLDM · #18To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. HovhannisyanRB · #13To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. KadeřábekLB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
M. SuchomelRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. MercadoCAM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bruno WilsonLCB · #43To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Hugo OliveiraCM · #2To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. ŠevínskýRCB · #19To be booked
DataPitch 30%
no price
Bruno WilsonLCB · #43Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23%
wins headers against a smaller marker (192cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. Braut BrunesST · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. ZelenýLCB · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 21%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Sandro LimaST · #91Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
level in the air (186cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. IrvingLDM · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. MacekRDM · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. KadeřábekLB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
level in the air (182cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. MercadoCAM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. AlcócerRM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
E. GrigoryanLB · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. HovhannisyanRB · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. AmbartsumyanLCM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. MercadoCAM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 2 logged matches
A. AmbartsumyanLCM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Sandro LimaST · #91Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
J. Braut BrunesST · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
A. IrvingLDM · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
J. AlcócerRM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
Z. ShaghoyanLW · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
A. SerobyanRW · #77Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
K. MuradyanRCM · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Hugo OliveiraCM · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
M. RynešLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
R. MacekRDM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
Bruno WilsonLCB · #43Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
K. HovhannisyanRB · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
E. GrigoryanLB · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
A. ŠevínskýRCB · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
M. AyvazyanRCBShot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
P. KadeřábekLB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
J. ZelenýLCB · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 5 matches we have logged
J. SurovčíkGK · #44Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
M. SuchomelRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 2 matches we have logged
João BravimGK · #98Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think M. Al-Hakim will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 14 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.64/match · Away 2.50/match
3/match in tight games · 5.33/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.
