v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
S. Jablonski runs average on cards, and 16 of the 20 rows we would back are Feyenoord's.
190 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Our last 30 days: 12,711 settled, 41% landed, and 2,717 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 5,422 rows, 59% landed.
J. KoundéRB · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 27% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
price too long
RaphinhaLM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 25% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
price too long
PedriLDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
G. ReadRB · #26Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Lamine YamalRM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
A. GordonST · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
L. ValenteST · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
O. TarghallineRCM · #28Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
RodriRDM · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
G. DiarraLW · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Nacho FerriRW · #19Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
Our last 30 days: 9,527 settled, 40% landed, and 1,270 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 3,672 rows, 60% landed.
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 44% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
L. ValenteST · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 64% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 63% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Nacho FerriRW · #19Fouls drawn
DataPitch 75% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
price too short
G. ReadRB · #26Fouls drawn
DataPitch 66% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
price too short
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Fouls drawn
DataPitch 54% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Fouls drawn
DataPitch 47% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 44% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. GordonST · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 69% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
RodriRDM · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
J. KoundéRB · #23Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
RaphinhaLM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Lamine YamalRM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 66% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
PedriLDM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 63% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
G. DiarraLW · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 46% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
O. TarghallineRCM · #28Fouls drawn
DataPitch 45% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Our last 30 days: 2,403 settled, 34% landed, and 324 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 746 rows, 47% landed.
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
RaphinhaLM · #11Tackles
DataPitch 28% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nacho FerriRW · #19Tackles
DataPitch 23% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
PedriLDM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 51% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
A. GordonST · #17Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
L. ValenteST · #10Tackles
DataPitch 24% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RodriRDM · #16Tackles
DataPitch 51% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Lamine YamalRM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 41% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
G. ReadRB · #26Tackles
DataPitch 58% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Tackles
DataPitch 29% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Tackles
DataPitch 55% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
G. DiarraLW · #27Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
J. KoundéRB · #23Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
price too short
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Tackles
DataPitch 41% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -42pp
price too short
G. DiarraLW · #27Shots
DataPitch 76% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap +28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
G. ReadRB · #26Shots
DataPitch 42% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nacho FerriRW · #19Shots
DataPitch 90% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap +16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap +14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. TarghallineRCM · #28Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RaphinhaLM · #11Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lamine YamalRM · #10Shots
DataPitch 99% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. ValenteST · #10Shots
DataPitch 69% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. GordonST · #17Shots
DataPitch 92% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Shots
DataPitch 29% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 32% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
PedriLDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 45% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RodriRDM · #16Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. KoundéRB · #23Shots
DataPitch 14% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Our last 30 days: 14,234 settled, 19% landed, and 3,262 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 1,832 rows, 53% landed.
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 48% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
G. ReadRB · #26Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap +14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
L. ValenteST · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap +14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nacho FerriRW · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
G. DiarraLW · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. KoundéRB · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RaphinhaLM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 80% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
PedriLDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RodriRDM · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lamine YamalRM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 68% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. GordonST · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 55% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 2.5 cards.
Our last 30 days: 11,566 settled, 14% landed, and 2,821 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 122 rows, 21% landed.
RaphinhaLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
X. EspartLB · #12To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lamine YamalRM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RodriRDM · #16To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. KoundéRB · #23To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nacho FerriRW · #19To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. ChristensenLCB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mika MàrmolLB · #35To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. GordonST · #17To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
PedriLDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. WatanabeRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
O. TarghallineRCM · #28To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. VanhoutteCM · #34To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. St. JusteLCB · #6To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
G. ReadRB · #26To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
L. ValenteST · #10To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
FermínCAM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 9%
no price
L. ValenteST · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap +18pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. St. JusteLCB · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
level in the air (184cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nacho FerriRW · #19Headed shot on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (192cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
level in the air (184cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
G. DiarraLW · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
level in the air (183cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. KoundéRB · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
level in the air (182cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. GordonST · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
level in the air (183cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RodriRDM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
PedriLDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. ChristensenLCB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RaphinhaLM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. ErnstGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
O. TarghallineRCM · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 184cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Joan GarcíaGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Pau CubarsíRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 12 logged matches
G. ReadRB · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 5 logged matches
Mika MàrmolLB · #35Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 5 logged matches
J. St. JusteLCB · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
T. WatanabeRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 7 logged matches
X. EspartLB · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 4 logged matches
J. KoundéRB · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 6%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
no shots from outside the box in the 12 matches we have logged
G. ZechiëlLCM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
shoots from range 1.1 times a game across 5 logged matches
C. VanhoutteCM · #34Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 8%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
no shots from outside the box in the 5 matches we have logged
G. DiarraLW · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
shoots from range 1.5 times a game across 5 logged matches
A. ChristensenLCB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
Nacho FerriRW · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 5 logged matches
PedriLDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 12 logged matches
RodriRDM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 11 logged matches
L. ValenteST · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 5 logged matches
A. GordonST · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 12 logged matches
Lamine YamalRM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 33% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
shoots from range 1.4 times a game across 12 logged matches
RaphinhaLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -49pp
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
FermínCAM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 4 logged matches
Joan GarcíaGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 12 matches we have logged
O. TarghallineRCM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 5 logged matches
T. ErnstGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 5 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think S. Jablonski will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 135 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.79/match · Away 2.13/match
4.06/match in tight games · 3.58/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.