v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Matheus Delgado Candancan runs average on cards, and 2 of the 3 rows we would back are Sao Paulo's.
209 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Fouls committed
DataPitch 68% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
DanielzinhoLCM · #94Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Enzo DíazLB · #13Fouls committed
DataPitch 77% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
André SilvaLS · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
SabinoLCB · #35Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
RonyLCM · #33Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Lucas RamonRB · #19Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
LucianoRM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 39% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
ArturLM · #37Fouls committed
DataPitch 39% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
SabinoLCB · #35Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Fouls drawn
DataPitch 56% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Lucas RamonRB · #19Fouls drawn
DataPitch 69% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
RonyLCM · #33Fouls drawn
DataPitch 74% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Enzo DíazLB · #13Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Fouls drawn
DataPitch 58% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 51% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
LucianoRM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 67% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
André SilvaLS · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
DanielzinhoLCM · #94Fouls drawn
DataPitch 57% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 41% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
price too short
ArturLM · #37Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -48pp
price too short
André SilvaLS · #17Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
price too long
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Tackles
DataPitch 31% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Tackles
DataPitch 17% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Tackles
DataPitch 16% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Tackles
DataPitch 45% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
SabinoLCB · #35Tackles
DataPitch 41% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RonyLCM · #33Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
Enzo DíazLB · #13Tackles
DataPitch 55% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 40% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Tackles
DataPitch 54% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Tackles
DataPitch 50% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
price too short
Lucas RamonRB · #19Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -49pp
price too short
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Shots
DataPitch 86% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
LucianoRM · #10Shots
DataPitch 90% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ArturLM · #37Shots
DataPitch 84% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Shots
DataPitch 85% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Enzo DíazLB · #13Shots
DataPitch 40% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
André SilvaLS · #17Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas RamonRB · #19Shots
DataPitch 42% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Shots
DataPitch 19% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Shots
DataPitch 13% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RonyLCM · #33Shots
DataPitch 58% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
SabinoLCB · #35Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Shots
DataPitch 49% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -44pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -52pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Shots
DataPitch 40% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -54pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
DanielzinhoLCM · #94Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -57pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Enzo DíazLB · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
DanielzinhoLCM · #94Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lucas RamonRB · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
SabinoLCB · #35Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RonyLCM · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 41% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 45% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
André SilvaLS · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 39% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
LucianoRM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 49% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ArturLM · #37Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 6 cards.
Enzo DíazLB · #13To be booked
DataPitch 45% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
André SilvaLS · #17To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16To be booked
DataPitch 31% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 28% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31To be booked
DataPitch 40% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
SabinoLCB · #35To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RonyLCM · #33To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas RamonRB · #19To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Igor ViniciusRB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gustavo Henrique PereiraDM · #48Gustavo Henrique PereiraDM · #48To be booked
DataPitch 39%
no price
LucianoRM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 32%
no price
Luan PeresLCB · #14Luan PeresLCB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 21%
no price
DanielzinhoLCM · #94To be booked
DataPitch 18%
no price
ArturLM · #37To be booked
DataPitch 8%
no price
Gabriel BrazãoGK · #77Gabriel BrazãoGK · #77To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
RafaelGK · #23RafaelGK · #23To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
Luan PeresLCB · #14Luan PeresLCB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gabriel BrazãoGK · #77Gabriel BrazãoGK · #77Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (192cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
SabinoLCB · #35Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
wins headers against a smaller marker (184cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RafaelGK · #23RafaelGK · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
level in the air (181cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alan FrancoRCB · #28Alan FrancoRCB · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (180cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (178cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Lucas RamonRB · #19Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Enzo DíazLB · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
LucianoRM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (181cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
level in the air (181cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (171cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ArturLM · #37Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (168cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RonyLCM · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (167cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (166cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Álvaro BarrealLM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20%
shoots from range 1.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
ArturLM · #37Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 8 logged matches
Benjamín RollheiserRCM · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 13%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 8 logged matches
Gabriel BarbosaST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 13%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 7 logged matches
Gabriel BontempoRM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
RonyLCM · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
LucianoRM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 7 logged matches
Enzo DíazLB · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 1 logged match
Lucas VeríssimoRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 4 logged matches
Jonathan CalleriRS · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
André SilvaLS · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
Gustavo Henrique PereiraDM · #48Gustavo Henrique PereiraDM · #48Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
Luan PeresLCB · #14Luan PeresLCB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
Alan FrancoRCB · #28Alan FrancoRCB · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
SabinoLCB · #35Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 6 logged matches
Igor ViniciusRB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 8 logged matches
Lucas RamonRB · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
RafaelGK · #23RafaelGK · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
DanielzinhoLCM · #94Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Damián BobadillaRCM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Gonzalo EscobarLB · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Gabriel BrazãoGK · #77Gabriel BrazãoGK · #77Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Matheus Delgado Candancan will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 105 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 1.86/match · Away 2.28/match
4.55/match in tight games · 4.54/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.