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Your model for Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal

UEFA Champions League · Tue 8 Sept, 20:00 UK · Ref

The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.

+The plus on a row builds your slip. Share on the slip turns it into a card.
›Tap any row for the arithmetic, his other lines, his last 5 and his season average.
⚽Tap any shirt on the pitch below for his own numbers.

Every market we price

228 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.

Fouls committed19

Our last 30 days: 12,117 settled, 41% landed, and 2,704 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 5,193 rows, 58% landed.

More players (17)
Fouls drawn19

Our last 30 days: 8,935 settled, 40% landed, and 1,257 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 3,469 rows, 60% landed.

More players (17)
Tackles17

Our last 30 days: 2,182 settled, 34% landed, and 319 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 678 rows, 46% landed.

More players (15)
Shots19
More players (17)
Shots on target318

Our last 30 days: 13,711 settled, 18% landed, and 3,250 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 1,750 rows, 53% landed.

More players (16)
To be booked122

The books expect about 4 cards.

Our last 30 days: 11,088 settled, 14% landed, and 2,813 that never ran or could not be graded. When we said over 50%: 121 rows, 22% landed.

More players (20)
Headed shot on target20
More players (18)
Shot on target from outside the box22
More players (20)
Create an alert for this matchPick a player or a market in the studio and we watch it live for you. No sign up.
Both line-ups, tap any player for his numbers

Tap any player for his numbers

Borussia Dortmund
Villarreal

Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.

Go deeper: make this match yours

Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.

Referee

How strict you think S. Sozza will be tonight

Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.

How the game goes

Who has the ball and who is chasing it

The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.

Battles

Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him

A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.

vs

We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.

Use the bookmakers

We lean on the market where it is sharp

Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.

This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.

Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.