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Everton vs Manchester United

Premier League · Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 UK · Ref

What the model sees

Based on our model, this is what we expect for this match: J. Brooks runs average on cards, and the exposure leans Manchester United's way (8 of the 15 rows we like).

Match signals

the market's own read of this fixture

Cards signalnormal
Whymatch line 4.00, split 1.75/2.25, allowance 3, standard yc volume
One-sided match0
Market's cards line4
Market's goals line2.75
Shots leanaway
Fouls leanaway
Tackles leanbalanced
Confidence0.9
Bookmakers read3

what our model expects, and where it differs from the market

Match contextmid_table
Tempomedium
Shapeone-sided
Expected goals2.51
Expected cards4.63
Expected cards, home2.76
Expected cards, away1.87
Cards leanhome
Our cards minus the market0.63
Against the marketaligned
Possessionaway
Angles agreeing11
Confidence0.58
J. O'Brien To commit a foul
2.00Bet365Gap +6pp

DataPitch 56% · Market 50%

His record at this line
48% of his last 40 starts
L. Shaw To be fouled
2.10Bet365Gap +5pp

DataPitch 52% · Market 48%

Against this opponent
5 of his last 8 meetings
His record at this line
44% of his last 36 starts

Model vs market

Every row worth a look, priced in words. Pick one or several, then Share renders the card.

J. O'Brien To commit a foul
2.00Bet365Gap +6pp

DataPitch 56% · Market 50%

His record at this line
48% of his last 40 starts
M. Rashford To commit a foul
2.00Paddy PowerGap +5pp

DataPitch 55% · Market 50%

Against this opponent
6 of his last 9 meetings
His record at this line
41% of his last 29 starts
L. Shaw To be fouled
2.10Bet365Gap +5pp

DataPitch 52% · Market 48%

Against this opponent
5 of his last 8 meetings
His record at this line
44% of his last 36 starts
M. Rashford 2+ shots on target
4.50Bet365Gap +10pp

DataPitch 32% · Market 22%

His record at this line
45% of his last 29 starts
H. Maguire 2+ fouls drawn
7.00Bet365Gap +17pp

DataPitch 31% · Market 14%

Against this opponent
2 of his last 8 meetings
His record at this line
24% of his last 21 starts
J. Tarkowski 2+ fouls committed
4.00Bet365Gap +6pp

DataPitch 31% · Market 25%

His record at this line
26% of his last 38 starts

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Everton
Manchester United

Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.

Change the game

Match-level, not per player. Set what you think, then Simulate.

Simulate re-prices every row above against what you set, in your browser, and tells you which ones moved and by how much.

Referee

How strict you think J. Brooks will be tonight

as usual

Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.

How the game goes

Who has the ball and who is chasing it

The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.

Use the bookmakers

We lean on the market where it is sharp

Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.

The battle you are watching

Pick an attacker and the defender on him

vs

We apply our matchup pivot to that pair and show you every row it moves. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those two.

Price = the latest market price we hold (book if any, else exchange). Gap is our simulated probability minus the price's own implied one, in percentage points, never printed as a price of ours. Both percentages are on every row.