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Arsenal vs Chelsea

Premier League · Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 UK · Ref

On today's card

What we posted for this match today, latest card first. Our corrected numbers, against the latest price we hold.

M. Lewis-Skelly 2+ fouls drawn
1.80Bet365Gap +13pp

DataPitch 69% · Market 56%

His record at this line
58% of his last 24 starts
B. Saka 2+ fouls drawn
1.80Bet365Gap +6pp

DataPitch 61% · Market 56%

Against this opponent
8 of his last 12 meetings
His record at this line
55% of his last 38 starts

What the model sees

Based on our model, this is what we expect for this match: C. Kavanagh runs average on cards, and the exposure leans Arsenal's way (10 of the 17 rows we like).

Match signals

the market's own read of this fixture

Cards signalpriority
Whymatch line 4.50, split 2.25/2.25, allowance 3, high-volume yc fixture (both sides ≥2.0)
One-sided match0
Market's cards line4.5
Market's goals line2.5
Shots leanhome
Fouls leanaway
Tackles leanbalanced
Confidence0.9
Bookmakers read3

what our model expects, and where it differs from the market

Match contexttop_vs_top
Tempomedium
Shapeone-sided
Expected goals4.06
Expected cards3.38
Expected cards, home0.75
Expected cards, away2.63
Cards leanaway
Our cards minus the market-1.12
Against the marketwe_under
Possessionhome
Angles agreeing13
Confidence0.68
M. Ødegaard To be fouled
1.80Paddy PowerGap +14pp

DataPitch 70% · Market 56%

Against this opponent
6 of his last 9 meetings
His record at this line
50% of his last 26 starts
M. Lewis-Skelly 2+ fouls drawn
1.80Bet365Gap +13pp

DataPitch 69% · Market 56%

His record at this line
58% of his last 24 starts
B. Saka 2+ fouls drawn
1.80Bet365Gap +6pp

DataPitch 61% · Market 56%

Against this opponent
8 of his last 12 meetings
His record at this line
55% of his last 38 starts

Model vs market

Every row worth a look, priced in words. Pick one or several, then Share renders the card.

M. Ødegaard To be fouled
1.80Paddy PowerGap +14pp

DataPitch 70% · Market 56%

Against this opponent
6 of his last 9 meetings
His record at this line
50% of his last 26 starts
M. Lewis-Skelly 2+ fouls drawn
1.80Bet365Gap +13pp

DataPitch 69% · Market 56%

His record at this line
58% of his last 24 starts
B. Saka 2+ fouls drawn
1.80Bet365Gap +6pp

DataPitch 61% · Market 56%

Against this opponent
8 of his last 12 meetings
His record at this line
55% of his last 38 starts
E. Konsa To commit a foul
2.25Bet365Gap +8pp

DataPitch 52% · Market 44%

His record at this line
33% of his last 54 starts
M. Lacroix To be fouled
2.20Paddy PowerGap +5pp

DataPitch 50% · Market 45%

His record at this line
40% of his last 52 starts
M. Lacroix To have a shot
2.75Bet365Gap +14pp

DataPitch 50% · Market 36%

His record at this line
42% of his last 52 starts

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Arsenal
Chelsea

Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.

Change the game

Match-level, not per player. Set what you think, then Simulate.

Simulate re-prices every row above against what you set, in your browser, and tells you which ones moved and by how much.

Referee

How strict you think C. Kavanagh will be tonight

as usual

Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.

How the game goes

Who has the ball and who is chasing it

The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.

Use the bookmakers

We lean on the market where it is sharp

Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.

The battle you are watching

Pick an attacker and the defender on him

vs

We apply our matchup pivot to that pair and show you every row it moves. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those two.

Price = the latest market price we hold (book if any, else exchange). Gap is our simulated probability minus the price's own implied one, in percentage points, never printed as a price of ours. Both percentages are on every row.