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Juventus vs AC Milan

Serie A · Sun 6 Sept, 19:45 UK · Ref

On today's card

What we posted for this match today, latest card first. Our corrected numbers, against the latest price we hold.

N. González 2+ fouls drawn
3.25Bet365Gap +11pp

DataPitch 41% · Market 31%

His record at this line
50% of his last 18 starts
J. Lucumí 2+ fouls committed
3.40Paddy PowerGap +4pp

DataPitch 34% · Market 29%

Against this opponent
2 of his last 5 meetings
His record at this line
16% of his last 43 starts

What the model sees

Based on our model, this is what we expect for this match: M. Mariani runs average on cards, and the exposure leans Juventus's way (9 of the 11 rows we like).

Match signals

the market's own read of this fixture

Cards signalnormal
Whymatch line 3.50, split 1.75/1.75, allowance 2, standard yc volume
One-sided match0
Market's cards line3.5
Market's goals line2.25
Shots leanhome
Fouls leanbalanced
Tackles leanbalanced
Confidence0.9
Bookmakers read3

what our model expects, and where it differs from the market

Match contexttop_vs_top
Tempomedium
Shapetactical
Expected goals2.51
Expected cards3.56
Expected cards, home1.64
Expected cards, away1.92
Cards leanbalanced
Our cards minus the market0.06
Against the marketaligned
Possessionhome
Angles agreeing13
Confidence0.68
N. González 2+ fouls drawn
3.25Bet365Gap +11pp

DataPitch 41% · Market 31%

His record at this line
50% of his last 18 starts
R. Kolo Muani 2+ fouls drawn
3.00Bet365Gap +4pp

DataPitch 38% · Market 33%

His record at this line
32% of his last 22 starts
J. Lucumí 2+ fouls committed
3.40Paddy PowerGap +4pp

DataPitch 34% · Market 29%

Against this opponent
2 of his last 5 meetings
His record at this line
16% of his last 43 starts

Model vs market

Every row worth a look, priced in words. Pick one or several, then Share renders the card.

Z. Çelik To have a shot
2.50Paddy PowerGap +15pp

DataPitch 55% · Market 40%

Against this opponent
5 of his last 11 meetings
His record at this line
38% of his last 50 starts
N. González 2+ fouls drawn
3.25Bet365Gap +11pp

DataPitch 41% · Market 31%

His record at this line
50% of his last 18 starts
R. Kolo Muani 2+ fouls drawn
3.00Bet365Gap +4pp

DataPitch 38% · Market 33%

His record at this line
32% of his last 22 starts
J. Lucumí 2+ fouls committed
3.40Paddy PowerGap +4pp

DataPitch 34% · Market 29%

Against this opponent
2 of his last 5 meetings
His record at this line
16% of his last 43 starts
Z. Çelik To have a shot on target
6.00Bet365Gap +15pp

DataPitch 32% · Market 17%

Against this opponent
3 of his last 11 meetings
His record at this line
18% of his last 50 starts
Bremer To have a shot on target
4.33Bet365Gap +8pp

DataPitch 31% · Market 23%

Against this opponent
3 of his last 8 meetings
His record at this line
31% of his last 29 starts

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Juventus
AC Milan

Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.

Change the game

Match-level, not per player. Set what you think, then Simulate.

Simulate re-prices every row above against what you set, in your browser, and tells you which ones moved and by how much.

Referee

How strict you think M. Mariani will be tonight

as usual

Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.

How the game goes

Who has the ball and who is chasing it

The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.

Use the bookmakers

We lean on the market where it is sharp

Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.

The battle you are watching

Pick an attacker and the defender on him

vs

We apply our matchup pivot to that pair and show you every row it moves. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those two.

Price = the latest market price we hold (book if any, else exchange). Gap is our simulated probability minus the price's own implied one, in percentage points, never printed as a price of ours. Both percentages are on every row.