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Coritiba vs Mirassol

Serie A · Sun 6 Sept, 15:00 UK · Ref

What the model sees

Based on our model, this is what we expect for this match: a standard officiating night, and the exposure leans evenly between both sides.

Match signals

the market's own read of this fixture

Cards signalpriority
Whymatch line 4.50, split 2.25/2.25, allowance 3, high-volume yc fixture (both sides ≥2.0)
One-sided match0
Market's cards line4.5
Market's goals line2.25
Shots leanbalanced
Fouls leanbalanced
Tackles leanbalanced
Confidence0.9
Bookmakers read3

what our model expects, and where it differs from the market

Match contextmid_table
Tempomedium
Shapeone-sided
Expected goals2.58
Expected cards4.45
Expected cards, home2.14
Expected cards, away2.31
Cards leanbalanced
Our cards minus the market-0.05
Against the marketaligned
Possessionbalanced
Angles agreeing19
Confidence1

No current angle here. Run your own view of this match

Nothing on this match clears our bar against the market tonight, so we are not putting a pick in front of you. The model has still priced the expected eleven. Set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate to re-run these numbers as your own.

Set up your view
What the model makes of this match, 30 rows

Not picks, and nothing here is being offered to you: these are our own percentages for the expected eleven, on the markets the controls below move, our strongest reads first (30 of 84). Move a control below and press Simulate, and any row your settings shift is labelled Your view and becomes yours to keep.

Josué To be fouled
1.11Paddy Power

DataPitch 71% · Market 90%

His record at this line
86% of his last 29 starts
Breno Lopes To be fouled
1.13Paddy Power

DataPitch 71% · Market 88%

His record at this line
87% of his last 30 starts
Alesson To be fouled
1.36Paddy Power

DataPitch 64% · Market 74%

His record at this line
75% of his last 28 starts
Denilson To commit a foul
1.08Paddy Power

DataPitch 60% · Market 93%

His record at this line
83% of his last 23 starts
Igor Formiga To commit a foul
1.20Paddy Power

DataPitch 60% · Market 83%

His record at this line
84% of his last 32 starts
Jacy To commit a foul
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 59% · Market 65%

His record at this line
62% of his last 29 starts
Thiago Santos To commit a foul
1.17Paddy Power

DataPitch 59% · Market 85%

His record at this line
80% of his last 10 starts
S. Gómez To commit a foul
1.20Paddy Power

DataPitch 58% · Market 83%

His record at this line
73% of his last 30 starts
Jacy To be fouled
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 57% · Market 65%

His record at this line
66% of his last 29 starts
Alesson To commit a foul
1.10Paddy Power

DataPitch 57% · Market 91%

His record at this line
64% of his last 28 starts
Reinaldo To commit a foul
1.29Paddy Power

DataPitch 56% · Market 78%

His record at this line
53% of his last 34 starts
J. Lavega To commit a foul
1.40Paddy Power

DataPitch 56% · Market 71%

His record at this line
58% of his last 12 starts
Josué To commit a foul
1.40Paddy Power

DataPitch 56% · Market 71%

His record at this line
66% of his last 29 starts
Willian Machado To commit a foul
1.44Paddy Power

DataPitch 55% · Market 69%

His record at this line
49% of his last 35 starts
João Victor To commit a foul
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 55% · Market 65%

His record at this line
45% of his last 42 starts
Pedro Rocha To commit a foul
1.36Paddy Power

DataPitch 55% · Market 74%

His record at this line
58% of his last 31 starts
S. Gómez To be fouled
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 54% · Market 65%

His record at this line
63% of his last 30 starts
Breno Lopes 2+ fouls drawn
1.20Paddy Power

DataPitch 54% · Market 83%

His record at this line
57% of his last 30 starts
Pedro Rocha To be fouled
1.25Paddy Power

DataPitch 54% · Market 80%

His record at this line
61% of his last 31 starts
Willian Machado To be fouled
2.00Paddy Power

DataPitch 53% · Market 50%

His record at this line
51% of his last 35 starts
Reinaldo To be fouled
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 53% · Market 65%

His record at this line
56% of his last 34 starts
Breno Lopes To commit a foul
1.50Paddy Power

DataPitch 52% · Market 67%

His record at this line
33% of his last 30 starts
Eduardo To commit a foul
1.22Paddy Power

DataPitch 52% · Market 82%

His record at this line
43% of his last 14 starts
Bruno Melo To commit a foul
1.29Paddy Power

DataPitch 50% · Market 78%

His record at this line
28% of his last 25 starts
Tinga To commit a foul
1.25Paddy Power

DataPitch 50% · Market 80%

His record at this line
23% of his last 13 starts
Tinga To be fouled
1.80Paddy Power

DataPitch 49% · Market 56%

His record at this line
62% of his last 13 starts
Denilson To be fouled
1.40Paddy Power

DataPitch 49% · Market 71%

His record at this line
57% of his last 23 starts
Eduardo To be fouled
1.36Paddy Power

DataPitch 48% · Market 74%

His record at this line
50% of his last 14 starts
Josué 2+ fouls drawn
1.17Paddy Power

DataPitch 47% · Market 85%

His record at this line
72% of his last 29 starts
Thiago Santos To be fouled
1.50Paddy Power

DataPitch 45% · Market 67%

His record at this line
60% of his last 10 starts

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Coritiba
Mirassol

Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.

Change the game

Match-level, not per player. Set what you think, then Simulate.

Simulate re-prices every row above against what you set, in your browser, and tells you which ones moved and by how much.

Referee

How strict you think A. Policarpo Bento will be tonight

as usual

Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.

How the game goes

Who has the ball and who is chasing it

The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.

Use the bookmakers

We lean on the market where it is sharp

Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.

The battle you are watching

Pick an attacker and the defender on him

vs

We apply our matchup pivot to that pair and show you every row it moves. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those two.

Price = the latest market price we hold (book if any, else exchange). Nothing on this match is being offered to you tonight, so no row is set against its price: the percentages below are ours until you re-run the match, and yours after. Both percentages are on every row.