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Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 6 Sept, 03:30 UK

What the model sees

Based on our model, this is what we expect for this match: a standard officiating night, and the exposure leans evenly between both sides.

Match signals

the market's own read of this fixture

Cards signalnormal
Whymatch line 4.00, split 2.00/2.00, allowance 2, standard yc volume
One-sided match0
Market's cards line4
Market's goals line3
Shots leanbalanced
Fouls leanbalanced
Tackles leanbalanced
Confidence0.828
Bookmakers read3

what our model expects, and where it differs from the market

Match contextmid_table
Tempomedium
Shapetactical
Expected goals3.56
Expected cards3.45
Expected cards, home1.8
Expected cards, away1.65
Cards leanbalanced
Our cards minus the market-0.55
Against the marketaligned
Possessionbalanced
Angles agreeing19
Confidence1

No current angle here. Run your own view of this match

Nothing on this match clears our bar against the market tonight, so we are not putting a pick in front of you. The model has still priced the expected eleven. Set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate to re-run these numbers as your own.

Set up your view
What the model makes of this match, 30 rows

Not picks, and nothing here is being offered to you: these are our own percentages for the expected eleven, on the markets the controls below move, our strongest reads first (30 of 52). Move a control below and press Simulate, and any row your settings shift is labelled Your view and becomes yours to keep.

K. Velde To commit a foul
1.33Paddy Power

DataPitch 62% · Market 75%

His record at this line
86% of his last 28 starts
O. Gene To commit a foul
1.36Paddy Power

DataPitch 61% · Market 74%

His record at this line
73% of his last 15 starts
M. Boxall To commit a foul
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 60% · Market 65%

His record at this line
70% of his last 20 starts
A. Markanich To commit a foul
1.44Paddy Power

DataPitch 60% · Market 69%

His record at this line
65% of his last 26 starts
J. Pereyra To commit a foul
1.22Paddy Power

DataPitch 60% · Market 82%

His record at this line
64% of his last 28 starts
W. Trapp To commit a foul
1.30Paddy Power

DataPitch 59% · Market 77%

Against this opponent
7 of his last 8 meetings
His record at this line
50% of his last 22 starts
J. Díaz To commit a foul
1.29Paddy Power

DataPitch 59% · Market 78%

His record at this line
83% of his last 23 starts
K. Yeboah To commit a foul
1.40Paddy Power

DataPitch 58% · Market 71%

His record at this line
60% of his last 20 starts
C. Bassett To commit a foul
1.44Paddy Power

DataPitch 58% · Market 69%

His record at this line
68% of his last 19 starts
J. Fory To commit a foul
1.29Paddy Power

DataPitch 58% · Market 78%

His record at this line
70% of his last 20 starts
K. Duncan To commit a foul
1.29Paddy Power

DataPitch 57% · Market 78%

His record at this line
69% of his last 16 starts
M. Duggan To commit a foul
1.50Paddy Power

DataPitch 54% · Market 67%

His record at this line
56% of his last 27 starts
K. Miller To commit a foul
1.57Paddy Power

DataPitch 54% · Market 64%

His record at this line
37% of his last 19 starts
A. Lassiter To commit a foul
1.53Paddy Power

DataPitch 52% · Market 65%

His record at this line
25% of his last 4 starts
David Pereira da Costa To commit a foul
1.57Paddy Power

DataPitch 51% · Market 64%

His record at this line
39% of his last 23 starts
F. Surman To commit a foul
1.73Paddy Power

DataPitch 50% · Market 58%

His record at this line
38% of his last 32 starts
J. Díaz 2+ fouls committed
1.80Paddy Power

DataPitch 35% · Market 56%

His record at this line
61% of his last 23 starts
K. Velde 2+ fouls committed
2.10Paddy Power

DataPitch 34% · Market 48%

His record at this line
50% of his last 28 starts
K. Yeboah 2+ fouls committed
2.30Paddy Power

DataPitch 33% · Market 43%

His record at this line
40% of his last 20 starts
A. Markanich 2+ fouls committed
2.63Paddy Power

DataPitch 32% · Market 38%

His record at this line
27% of his last 26 starts
K. Duncan 2+ fouls committed
1.80Paddy Power

DataPitch 30% · Market 56%

His record at this line
44% of his last 16 starts
O. Gene 2+ fouls committed
2.30Paddy Power

DataPitch 29% · Market 43%

His record at this line
27% of his last 15 starts
J. Pereyra 2+ fouls committed
1.62Paddy Power

DataPitch 27% · Market 62%

His record at this line
39% of his last 28 starts
C. Bassett 2+ fouls committed
2.50Paddy Power

DataPitch 25% · Market 40%

His record at this line
26% of his last 19 starts
W. Trapp 2+ fouls committed
1.91Paddy Power

DataPitch 25% · Market 52%

Against this opponent
3 of his last 8 meetings
His record at this line
14% of his last 22 starts
J. Díaz To be booked
2.88Paddy Power

DataPitch 24% · Market 35%

His record at this line
35% of his last 23 starts
J. Fory 2+ fouls committed
1.80Paddy Power

DataPitch 24% · Market 56%

His record at this line
25% of his last 20 starts
M. Duggan 2+ fouls committed
3.50Paddy Power

DataPitch 20% · Market 29%

His record at this line
19% of his last 27 starts
A. Lassiter 2+ fouls committed
3.30Paddy Power

DataPitch 20% · Market 30%

His record at this line
0% of his last 4 starts
M. Boxall 2+ fouls committed
3.20Paddy Power

DataPitch 20% · Market 31%

Against this opponent
2 of his last 10 meetings
His record at this line
15% of his last 20 starts

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Portland Timbers
Minnesota United FC

Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.

Change the game

Match-level, not per player. Set what you think, then Simulate.

Simulate re-prices every row above against what you set, in your browser, and tells you which ones moved and by how much.

Referee

How strict you think the referee will be

as usual

Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.

How the game goes

Who has the ball and who is chasing it

The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.

Use the bookmakers

We lean on the market where it is sharp

Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.

The battle you are watching

Pick an attacker and the defender on him

vs

We apply our matchup pivot to that pair and show you every row it moves. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those two.

Price = the latest market price we hold (book if any, else exchange). Nothing on this match is being offered to you tonight, so no row is set against its price: the percentages below are ours until you re-run the match, and yours after. Both percentages are on every row.